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Bitcoin Price Analysis: Bear Markets Test Crucial Support Levels

Bitcoin Magazine, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

Bitcoin Price Analysis

This morning marked another bearish day in the crypto-space as the entire market cap continued its multi-week-long decline. As referenced in a previous BTC-USD price analysis, we have continued to test the neckline of a massive, multi-week-long Head-and-Shoulders reversal pattern. At the time of this article, the market is making its second test of the ascending trendline (marked in yellow).

BTC Macro HS.png

Figure 1: BTC-USD, 6-hr Candles, Gemini, Head-and-Shoulders Pattern

A breakdown of the ascending trendline typically marks a very characteristic, sustained market reversal that, in our case, has a price projection in the upper $1,800 range (see this previous analysis for a detailed breakdown of Head-and-Shoulders price target calculation).

When confirming the Head-and-Shoulders reversal pattern, key support levels on the way down toward its price projection include the following markers:

BTC Macro HS Support Lvls.png

Figure 2: BTC-USD, 6-hr Candles, GDAX, Key Support Levels

  1. A break of the ascending trendline is often initially rejected before continuing its trend downward — hence, the multiple attempts to break the trendline. However, typically, a sustained move below this trendline is very likely to continue downward and test the next two support levels.

  2. The first attempt to complete the right Shoulder/the first attempt at breaking the ascending trendline was rejected in the form of a Double Bottom Reversal (see this previous analysis for details). At the time of this article, we are making a test of the key, pivotal support line that began the Double Bottom Reversal. A breakdown of this support line is one of the first signs that a long-term, sustained bear market is likely.

  3. The initial support line that separated the “Head” from the right “Shoulder” is of specific significance because the high volume shows the failed market attempt to rally off the largest drop in price since the high $2,900s.

When looking at support lines, it’s important to keep in mind that these are not concrete, rigid lines. Rather, they are elastic and should be treated more like “zones” of support, rather than “lines.” One thing to consider when trading the Head-and-Shoulders pattern is that an initial strong move below the neckline is often rejected along a known support line and will lead to a re-test of the neckline from the bottom. A break below the descending trendline support will ultimately become a strong level of resistance. Below are the potential price trajectories should the market decide to break below the descending trendline:

HS Retest.png

Figure 3: BTC-USD, 6-hr Candles, GDAX, Support Line Tests

Summary:

  1. BTC-USD is currently in the process of testing crucial support levels of a Head-and-Shoulders reversal pattern.

  2. Failure to maintain support could have a potential sustained bear market with a price target of approximately $1,800.

Trading and investing in digital assets like bitcoin and ether is highly speculative and comes with many risks. This analysis is for informational purposes and should not be considered investment advice. Statements and financial information on Bitcoin Magazine and BTCMedia related sites do not necessarily reflect the opinion of BTCMedia and should not be construed as an endorsement or recommendation to buy, sell or hold. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.


The post Bitcoin Price Analysis: Bear Markets Test Crucial Support Levels appeared first on Bitcoin Magazine.

Publicly Traded Bitcoin Startup BTCS Reveals Plan to Invest in ICOs

CoinDesk, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

Publicly traded bitcoin startup BTCS is planning to create a portfolio of digital assets, its CEO told shareholders in a new letter.

Source

Mt Gox CEO's Embezzlement Trial Begins Tomorrow

CoinDesk, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

The chief executive of the now-defunct bitcoin exchange Mt Gox is set to appear in court this week.

Source

Ethereum is getting crushed

Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

Ethereum is under pressure on Monday. The cryptocurrency is down 9.9% at $215 an ether, and is trading at its lowest level in more than a month. 

The cryptocurrency has had a rough go of things as of late. It's fallen more than 45% since reaching a record high of nearly $400 on June 13 amid chatter of a cryptocurrency bubble.

First, tech billionaire Mark Cuban suggested that Etherteum's rival, bitcoin, was in a bubble. He tweeted, "I think it's in a bubble. I just don't know when or how much it corrects. When everyone is bragging about how easy they are making $=bubble."

Then, Jeffrey Kleintop, Charles Schwab's chief global investment strategist, suggested bitcoin was in a bubble unlike any we had ever seen before

And while things are looking a bit frothy over the near-term, the prospects for ethereum look brighter over the longer term. 

"When looking at bitcoin blockchain versus Ethereum, there's no doubt Ethereum is superior," Mike McGovern, the new head of Investor Services Fintech Offerings at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co, told Business Insider. "It doesn't cost as much to mine ether tokens, because it requires less electricity than bitcoin." 

Ethereum

 

 

 

SEE ALSO: GOLDMAN SACHS: Bitcoin could see a big drop then surge to almost $4,000

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NOW WATCH: An economist explains the key issues that Trump needs to address to boost the economy

This Is HODL.voting: Voting With Your Bitcoins but Better

Bitcoin Magazine, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

This Is HODL.voting: Voting With Your Bitcoins but Better

Bitcoin’s ongoing scaling debate continues to highlight that protocol governance is one of the biggest challenges for this technology.

One of the many solutions that have been proposed to break through the scaling impasse is coin-voting schemes, where Bitcoin users get to “vote” on potential protocol changes with their bitcoins. One implementation of such a solution, Bitcoinocracy, already exists, while several Bitcoin Core developers have been working on alternative schemes.

And recently, Bitrated CEO Nadav Ivgi developed an early implementation of HODL.voting, a coin-voting solution with an interesting twist. To vote, users need to lock up their bitcoins, losing access to them for some time.

“The theory is that by attaching a real cost to voting — loss of liquidity and ability to sell — we can get more reliable signaling,” the Israeli developer thinks.

Sacrifice

The concept behind existing coin-voting schemes like Bitcoinocracy is simple. Anyone who holds bitcoins can use the associated private keys to sign a message. This message acts as a vote, and all votes are added up. This definitively proves that all votes correspond to the ownership of bitcoins, allowing for a one-coin-one-vote type of system.

But this straightforward setup also has its weaknesses, Ivgi argues. Most important, while this type of voting requires access to bitcoins, it still doesn’t actually cost anything to vote.

“This means that custodians — exchanges, hosted wallets, etcetera — get to have disproportional voting power with their customers’ funds. And I don’t think that people currently holding funds at an exchange meant to consent to the exchange voting on their behalf on matters such as this,” Ivgi explained. “And two: cost-free signaling is not very reliable. Someone who’s not informed on a debate has no incentive not to vote however he feels like, even if he knows that the vote is completely uneducated. Alternatively, it would be very cheap to bribe him to vote a certain way, especially if he’s not planning to vote otherwise.”

The solution to this problem, Ivgi thinks, is to add a cost to voting. Referring to the handicap principle, he suggests that whenever there’s an incentive to cheat, requiring a sort of “sacrifice” can make signaling more reliable. Anyone who wants to vote would have to incur a real cost to prove that he really means it.

The cost that HODL.voting imposes on voters is a lack of access to their actual bitcoins, temporarily. And the longer someone is willing to lose this access, the more weight is attributed to the vote.

“HODL.voting uses time locks as a sacrifice to assign votes with weight,” Ivgi explained. “You send bitcoins to a special Bitcoin address that locks your bitcoins up and encodes your vote. The vote is weighted according to the amount of bitcoins locked, multiplied by the lock duration.”

And this also has the benefit, Ivgi pointed out, that custodians can’t vote for their customers; not without effectively running a fractional reserve. Users may want to withdraw their bitcoins at any time, so making them inaccessible shouldn’t be an option for exchanges and wallet providers.

HODL.voting

Ivgi developed an early implementation of HODL.voting at the Tel Aviv Bitcoin Embassy Hackathon last March — and won first prize with it.

The implementation uses CheckSequenceVerify (CSV), a feature that was added to the Bitcoin protocol about a year ago. CSV allows users to essentially “lock” bitcoins into the Bitcoin blockchain itself. A transaction that spends these bitcoins would be considered valid only at some point in the future, relative to when the bitcoins were “locked up.”

Using the HODL.voting website, voters can create a transaction that locks up their bitcoins with CSV. The website also generates a refund transaction, which will only be valid at some point in the future. HODL.voting users can broadcast this transaction when the time lock has passed — or have it broadcast for them. Consequently, the voter will have lost access to his coins for some time, enforced by the Bitcoin protocol itself.

And the transaction that locks up the bitcoins also contains some extra data: the “vote.” The HODL.voting website recognizes the data as a vote, to record it and add it to all other votes to calculate the overall score. That score is then visible on the HODL.voting website itself.

The only real weakness left is that whoever controls the website could fuzz the visible score. While the actual vote cannot be faked — it’s embedded and enforced by the Bitcoin protocol — what visitors see on the website as the result can be. That said, it should be possible for individual voters to verify whether their vote was included in the overall results. And, any interested party can verify that all the votes as displayed on the website are legitimate. This should keep the platform honest, Ivgi thinks.

Lastly, it should be noted that HODL.voting is, of course, not in any way binding for anything — it’s actually more of a polling mechanism. But as a poll that cannot be faked, it could provide useful information that is otherwise hard to come by.

Ivgi:

“I think that as a voting system it’s mostly interesting for gauging community sentiment regarding Bitcoin protocol development issues. It gives the voting power to long-term holders who’re willing to prove that they’re confident in Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition and that they have a stake in Bitcoin. Not just today, but also in the future value of Bitcoin as affected by the protocol development decisions they’re voting on.”

An alpha version of HODL.voting is currently running on Bitcoin’s testnet. Ivgi says there’s still quite a bit of work to be done before the project will be ready for the mainnet. He will complete HODL.voting if he believes there is enough interest for it.

The post This Is HODL.voting: Voting With Your Bitcoins but Better appeared first on Bitcoin Magazine.

$20,000: IRS to Exempt Casual Bitcoin Buyers From Coinbase Data Request

CoinDesk, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

The Internal Revenue Service is seeking a narrower focus in its investigation of digital currency startup Coinbase, new court documents reveal.

Source

More Bitcoin regulations are coming

Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

Major US Regulators and Organizations

This story was delivered to BI Intelligence "Fintech Briefing" subscribers. To learn more and subscribe, please click here.

While most federal regulators in the US have taken a sluggish approach to cryptocurrencies, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has been an exception. In September 2015, the body designated cryptocurrencies as commodities, rather than currencies.

Then, in May 2016, it gave TeraExchange, a cryptocurrency clearing platform, full authorization to trade digital currency derivatives, making it the first company in the US to receive such permission. Now, the CFTC has granted the same permission to another player, LedgerX, a cryptocurrency trading and clearing platform for institutional investors. The CFTC's decision to approve a second such company suggests it may license more players going forward.

It's worth noting the CFTC may find it easier than other federal agencies to deal with cryptocurrencies. The CFTC's mandate covers all forms of trades and bets made on the future performance of a commodity, regardless of what it may be, so by classifying cryptocurrencies under this umbrella term, it can apply its existing regulatory framework to the asset class. The CFTC is therefore in a position to license firms like LedgerX because they handle only trades, swaps, and derivatives based on cryptocurrency movements, rather than the assets directly. In contrast, regulators that actually handle the purchase and sale of assets, such as the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), may find it harder to fit cryptocurrencies into their current taxonomy.

Despite the CFTC's proactive approach, cryptocurrencies are still mired in regulatory uncertainty in the US. Although federal regulators have delayed introducing cryptocurrency rules, state regulators have been quicker off the mark, with New York taking the lead. And each of these bodies is pursuing a unique agenda, thereby classifying cryptocurrencies differently. If state regulators don't coordinate between themselves, as well as with federal bodies, the end result will be an even more convoluted regulatory environment for players like LedgerX. These players will be left with no clarity on their legal status if the bodies responsible for legislation cannot reach consensus.

Despite having one of the largest fintech industries in the world, the U.S. is noticeably behind other regions when it comes to one factor crucial to the future growth of this burgeoning sector — regulation. 

The U.S. regulatory environment is holding back fintechs and hindering their chances of success. 

Sarah Kocianski, senior research analyst for BI Intelligence, Business Insider's premium research service, has compiled a detailed report on U.S. fintech regulation that:

  • Examines the current regulatory landscape in the U.S. 
  • Explains how it is negatively affecting the fintech industry.
  • Outlines the initiatives currently in play from major regulatory agencies. 
  • Considers the future of U.S. fintech regulation and its potential impact on the fintech sector. 

To get the full report, subscribe to an All-Access pass to BI Intelligence and gain immediate access to this report and more than 250 other expertly researched reports. As an added bonus, you'll also gain access to all future reports and daily newsletters to ensure you stay ahead of the curve and benefit personally and professionally. » Learn More Now

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CITI WARNS: Gold is setting up for a drop

Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

Gold is setting up for a drop, according to the CitiFX Technicals team led by Tom Fitzpatrick. The group warns a double top pattern has been confirmed, and that the precious metal should fall more than 6% from here.

"The key level at $1,214, which was the double top neckline, has given way on a weekly close basis," according to the team. "The setup points towards a move to $1,133."

Gold

A drop to 1,133 would push the precious metal into negative territory for 2017. Citi says gold should find support in near $1,121.

Gold has rallied about 5.5% so far in 2017, even as the Federal Reserve has continued on its path to normalize interest rates. The yellow metal topped out just shy of the $1,300 level in both April and June, right around the time of the Fed's last two rate hikes.

Potentially limiting the precious metal has been the rise of cryptocurrencies. According to Tom Lee, the managing partner and head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, bitcoin and ethereum are "cannibalizing demand for gold." 

"Bitcoin is arguably becoming a scarcer store of value," Lee wrote in a note to clients sent out on Friday. "Investors need to identify strategies to leverage this potential rise in cryptocurrencies."

The two cryptocurrencies have respectively gained 172% and 3,200% year-to-date as of Friday. Currently, bitcoin has an aggregate value of $42 billion, but Lee believes if that grows to $500 billion central banks could become buyers. 

"Already central banks have looked into this possibility," Lee says. "In our view, this is a game changer, enhancing the legitimacy of the currency and likely accelerating the substitution for gold."

SEE ALSO: JEFF GUNDLACH: Treasurys getting close to some 'big levels'

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Bitcoin + Post-Trade? Nivaura Exits Stealth to Help Banks Use Open Blockchains

CoinDesk, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

Blockchain startup Nivaura has been granted "restricted" permission from a UK regulator to issue and administer financial instruments.

Source

The Science of How Small Acts of Kindness End Up Having a Big Impact

Inc, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

Even the smallest gestures can ripple out widely, uplifting new research reveals.

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