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The maker of Ugg boots is crashing after missing on earnings, revenue, and guidance (DECK)

Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

Deckers Outdoors is crashing by more than 21% after announcing disappointing quarterly results across the board for its crucial holiday quarter. The company missed on earnings, revenue, and guidance. Here's a look at the numbers:

  • Adjusted EPS: $4.11 ($4.22 expected)
  • Revenue: $760.3 million ($789.1 million expected)
  • Full-year 2017 adjusted EPS guidance: $3.45 to $3.55 ($4.08 expected)

"While we are disappointed that our overall results fell short of projections, we are confident that our product, pricing and distribution strategies will benefit the long-term health of the UGG brand," Dave Powers, President and CEO, said in the earnings release.

Thursday's post-earnings dive has dropped Decker to $44 per share, the lowest it has been since January 2016. 

Deckers Outdoor

 

SEE ALSO: GoPro is tanking after big misses on revenue and guidance

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Chipotle is sliding after revenue comes up a bit short (CMG)

Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

Screen Shot 2017 02 02 at 4.19.16 PM

Chipotle's stock is tumbling in after-hours trading after the company reported is fourth quarter results. 

The stock was down by as much as 3.2% around 4:15 p.m. ET.

It has since rebounded slightly and is lower by just 2.0% at 4:22 p.m. ET.

Chipotle missed on revenue, and same-store sales dropped by 4.8% year-over-year.

Here are the key numbers from Q4, via the Bloomberg consensus:

  • EPS (adjusted): $0.55 ($0.50-$0.58 expected)
  • Revenue: $1.03 billion ($1.04 billion expected)
  • Same-store sales: -4.8% (-4.8% expected)

Chipotle has been struggling since the E. coli contamination scare began back in November 2015.

The stock plunged more than 50% and consumer perception of the brand fell to its lowest level since 2007, according to a survey by the YouGov Brand Index.

Moreover, Chipotle could be facing additional new obstacles. Last week, the Trump administration proposed a 20% tariff on goods from Mexico as a way to help pay for a wall along the US-Mexico border.

Although the administration has since walked it back, saying the tariff was just one option being considered, it's worth noting that this proposal could make goods from Mexico more expensive. And that could be a problem for restaurant chains like Chipotle that heavily rely on Mexican imports.

SEE ALSO: What 25 major world leaders and dictators looked like when they were young

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GoPro is taking after big misses on revenue and guidance (GPRO)

Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

Shares of GoPro are down 10% in after-hours trading after the company missed on revenue and issued disappointing guidance.

Revenue during the crucial holiday quarter slid 5.7% versus a year ago to $540.6 million, which was well shy of the $574.5 million that analysts were expecting. Additionally, GoPro says it sees first quarter revenue of $190 million to $210 million versus the Wall Street estimate of $267.6 million.

There was a bit of good news as adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.29, well ahead of the $0.22 was anticipated.

"In 2016, big investments in hardware, cloud, and mobile yielded a solid foundational experience for our customers," Nicholas Woodman, GoPro's Founder and CEO said in the earnings release. "In 2017, we will build on this foundation for our customers while improving efficiency and managing cost to achieve profitability." 

Shares of GoPro have been in a tailspin since reaching a peak of more than $93 per share in October 2014, less than four months after the stock IPOed. They have fallen about 89% from their peak.

GoPro  

 

 

 

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STOCKS GO NOWHERE: Here's what you need to know

Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

California traffic jam

Stocks were little changed on Thursday, all three major indexes were mixed while the bond market also budged little.

We've got all the headlines, but first, the scoreboard:

  • Dow: 19,890.94, -10.22, (-0.05%) 
  • S&P 500: 2,279.55, +1.28, (+0.06%)
  • Nasdaq: 5,642.65, -6.45, (-0.11%)
  • UST 10-year bond yield: 2.477%, (+2.6 bps)
  1. Trump continued his tough talk on NAFTA. Trump said that the North American Free Trade Agreement has been a "catastrophe" for the US and he wants to either have it changes or completely ripped up. He also emphasized that he wants trade to be fair, saying he wants NAFTA "with an extra F" for Fair.
  2. The Bank of England held their key interest rate in place. The interest was held at 0.25% on Thursday, though the central bank did increase its projection for economic growth in 2017. "Over the next few years, a consequence of weaker sterling is that the higher imported costs resulting from it will boost consumer prices and cause inflation to overshoot the 2% target. This effect is already becoming evident in the data," said the BOE's statement.
  3. Amazon is set to report earnings after the bell. Amazon reported earnings per share of $1.54 against analysts expectations of $1.35 per share. Revenue missed, however, at $43.7 billion against expectations of $44.68 billion. Shares sank nearly 4% in post-market trading.
  4. Ralph Lauren's CEO resigned suddenly and the stock tanked. CEO Stefan Larsson stepped down after butting heads with founder Ralph Lauren. The company also reported a 12% drop in sales during the holiday season. The stock fell by just over 12% during trading.
  5. Initial jobless claims stayed under 300,000 for the 100th week in a row. Claims came in at 246,000, below the 250,000 expected by economists and down from the previous week's 259,000.

ADDITIONALLY:

Central banks' '15 minutes of fame' are coming to an end — but it's happening for all the wrong reasons

ALBERT EDWARDS: Trump is 'a neo-liberal nightmare,' but part of his economic policy 'makes perfect sense'

'What the f--- kind of bank is this?': The moment the biggest financial conspiracy ever seen started to fall apart

Here's the memo Larry Fink, the head of the world's largest investor, just sent to staff on these 'uneasy' times

SEE ALSO: FRIDAY IS JOBS DAY: Here's what you need to know

Join the conversation about this story »

NOW WATCH: Here's how to use one of the many apps to buy and trade bitcoin

STOCKS GO NOWHERE: Here's what you need to know

Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

California traffic jam

Stocks were little changed on Thursday. The three major indexes were mixed while the bond market also budged little.

We've got all the headlines, but first, the scoreboard:

  • Dow: 19,884.91, -6.03, (-0.03%) 
  • S&P 500: 2,279.55, +1.30, (+0.06%)
  • Nasdaq: 5,636.20, -6.45, (-0.11%)
  • UST 10-year bond yield: 2.470%, (-0.4 bps)
  1. Trump continued his tough talk on NAFTA. Trump said that the North American Free Trade Agreement has been a "catastrophe" for the US and he wants to either have it changed or completely ripped up. He also emphasized that he wants trade to be fair, saying he wants NAFTA "with an extra F" for "Fair."
  2. The Bank of England held their key interest rate in place. The rate was held at 0.25% on Thursday, though the central bank did increase its projection for economic growth in 2017. "Over the next few years, a consequence of weaker sterling is that the higher imported costs resulting from it will boost consumer prices and cause inflation to overshoot the 2% target. This effect is already becoming evident in the data," said the BOE's statement.
  3. Amazon is set to report earnings after the bell. Amazon reported earnings per share of $1.54 against analysts' expectations of $1.35 per share. Revenue missed, however, at $43.7 billion against expectations of $44.68 billion. Shares sank nearly 4% in post-market trading.
  4. Ralph Lauren's CEO resigned suddenly and the stock tanked. CEO Stefan Larsson stepped down after butting heads with founder Ralph Lauren. The company also reported a 12% drop in sales during the holiday season. The stock fell by just over 12% during trading.
  5. Initial jobless claims stayed under 300,000 for the 100th week in a row. Claims came in at 246,000, below the 250,000 expected by economists and down from the previous week's 259,000.

ADDITIONALLY:

Central banks' '15 minutes of fame' are coming to an end — but it's happening for all the wrong reasons

ALBERT EDWARDS: Trump is 'a neo-liberal nightmare,' but part of his economic policy 'makes perfect sense'

'What the f--- kind of bank is this?': The moment the biggest financial conspiracy ever seen started to fall apart

Here's the memo Larry Fink, the head of the world's largest investor, just sent to staff on these 'uneasy' times

SEE ALSO: FRIDAY IS JOBS DAY: Here's what you need to know

Join the conversation about this story »

NOW WATCH: Here's how to use one of the many apps to buy and trade bitcoin

Trump's nominee for the top US healthcare job made a 4th shady investment in a health company

Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

tom price

Rep. Tom Price, President Donald Trump's nominee for Health and Human Services secretary and a Georgia congressman, invested up to $15,000 in a health company before introducing a bill that benefitted it, according to a report from USA Today.

USA Today's Jayne O'Donnell reports Price's investment broker bought $15,000 worth of McKesson stock in March 2016 and informed him of the purchase in April.

On May 12, 2016, Price introduced the Durable Medical Equipment Act, which in part stopped cuts of Medicare reimbursement for medical beds. McKesson, which produces medical beds, told investors that cuts in Medicare payments would be detrimental to its business in its annual report filed a week before the bill was introduced, according to the report.

The bill did not pass, according to the report, but parts of it made their way into the recently passed 21st Century Cures Act, which Price — an orthopedic surgeon — was a part of.

This is the fourth investment that may raise questions for Price. The others were:

  • An investment between $1,001 and $15,000 in Zimmer Bodet, a company that makes hip and knee replacements, before introducing a bill that would be beneficial to the company.
  • The introduction of a failed bill that would have made a tax deduction on Puerto Rico manufacturing plants permanent. Price had four investments between $1,001 to $15,000 in pharma companies with facilities in Puerto Rico.
  • An investment in a small Australian biotech company, Innate Immunotherapeutics, made through a private placement at a 12% discount to the share price of the stocks. Price said during his testimony to the Senate Finance Committee that the placement was available to all investors, but a later report revealed that it was available to all investors in Australia and New Zealand but limited to fewer than 20 people in the US.

Spokespeople from the Trump administration and HHS told USA Today that the investment did not influence Price's legislation and he had been working on similar bills the two years prior to the investment as well.

Democrats have insisted that these trades have raised ethical questions that should prevent Price's approval to the top spot at HHS. They have called for an investigation into Price under the STOCK Act, which prevents members of Congress from using non-public information they learn in their jobs while making investments.

Price maintained throughout his hearing that he did not know his broker was purchasing these stocks until after the trades, except has acknowledged that he directed his broker to purchase the Innate shares.

Republicans have also said that these investments are all legal and ethical and Price is qualified to be confirmed.

Republicans on the Senate Finance Committee approved Price for a vote by the wider Senate on Wednesday after a boycott by Democrats prevented a vote on Tuesday.

Read the USA Today report here»

SEE ALSO: Obamacare just keeps getting more popular

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This chart should terrify stock pickers everywhere

Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

Passive investing is set to overtake active management in US market share in just four to seven years.

That's according to Moody's Investor Services, which said in a report released February 2 that passively managed funds will have more in assets than active funds by 2024 at the latest.

Screen Shot 2017 02 02 at 2.33.20 PM

Passive investments, including ETFs and index funds, currently account for $6 trillion of assets globally, and 28.5% of assets under management in the US.

A combination of trends, including lackluster active management performance, regulation, and increasing cost consciousness, has led investors to move away from actively managed funds and into passive products that track an index.

Vanguard calculated that 82% of actively managed stock funds have either underperformed their benchmarks or shut down over the decade ended December 31, 2015. High costs are the biggest reason active management has lagged, according to Vanguard CEO in a blog post on January 10.

"We believe that the passive phenomena is more appropriately viewed as the adoption of new technology," said Moody's vice president Stephen Tu in the report. "Investor adoption of passive and low-cost investment products will continue irrespective of market environment." 

Moody's reached its conclusions using two approaches: a linear regression of market share versus time and by fitting recent passive fund AUM data to a diffusion model which projects near-term market share. 

The Moody's team led by Tu also see huge potential in growth outside of the US. The rest of the world has seen a smaller penetration of passive investing at approximately 5-15%, according to the report, due to less awareness of passive products or sales practices that don't favor investors.

Moody's believes that as markets mature and investors become more aware of the products, there is huge potential for upside. 

SEE ALSO: We could be heading for 'a stock pickers' paradise'

Join the conversation about this story »

NOW WATCH: Here's how to use one of the many apps to buy and trade bitcoin

This chart should terrify stock pickers everywhere

Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

Passive investing is set to overtake active management in US market share in just four to seven years.

That's according to Moody's Investor Services, which said in a report released February 2 that passively managed funds will have more in assets than active funds by 2024 at the latest.

Screen Shot 2017 02 02 at 2.33.20 PM

Passive investments, including ETFs and index funds, currently account for $6 trillion of assets globally, and 28.5% of assets under management in the US.

A combination of trends, including lackluster active management performance, regulation, and increasing cost consciousness, has led investors to move away from actively managed funds and into passive products that track an index.

Vanguard calculated that 82% of actively managed stock funds have either underperformed their benchmarks or shut down over the decade ended December 31, 2015. High costs are the biggest reason active management has lagged, according to Vanguard CEO in a blog post on January 10.

"We believe that the passive phenomena is more appropriately viewed as the adoption of new technology," said Moody's vice president Stephen Tu in the report. "Investor adoption of passive and low-cost investment products will continue irrespective of market environment." 

Moody's reached its conclusions using two approaches: a linear regression of market share versus time and by fitting recent passive fund AUM data to a diffusion model which projects near-term market share. 

The Moody's team led by Tu also see huge potential in growth outside of the US. The rest of the world has seen a smaller penetration of passive investing at approximately 5-15%, according to the report, due to less awareness of passive products or sales practices that don't favor investors.

Moody's believes that as markets mature and investors become more aware of the products, there is huge potential for upside. 

SEE ALSO: We could be heading for 'a stock pickers' paradise'

Join the conversation about this story »

NOW WATCH: Here's how to use one of the many apps to buy and trade bitcoin

FRIDAY IS JOBS DAY: Here's what you need to know

Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

american flag

The first jobs report of 2017 is nearly upon us.

Via Bloomberg, here's what Wall Street is expecting when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its report at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday:

  • Nonfarm payrolls: +175,000 (+156,000 prior)
  • Unemployment rate: 4.7% (4.7% prior)
  • Average hourly earnings month-on-month: +0.3% (0.4% prior)
  • Average hourly earnings year-on-year: +2.8% (2.8% prior)
  • Average weekly hours worked: 34.3 (34.3 prior)
  • Change in manufacturing payrolls: 5,000 (17,000 prior)

Most analysts are gearing up for a solid jobs report, with consensus expectations for nonfarm payrolls to increase by about 175,000. However, some folks think the report could surprise on the upside.

"Data in the past week, however, have introduced some upside risk and thus another 200k+ payroll print cannot be excluded," wrote a TD Securities US strategy team led by Michael Hanson, chief of US macro strategy, in a note to clients.

small business optimismNotably, the ADP reading on the growth of private payrolls spiked by 246,000 on Wednesday, far above economists' expectations of 168,000, and the ISM employment index ticked up by 3.3 to 56.1. Moreover, business sentiment has been improving since the US presidential election — although, this has been at least partially due to companies' expectations for the economy going forward.

"Every business survey released since the election that we're aware of has been much stronger, including rising hiring plans. Fewer people being fired and businesses potentially starting to increase new hires point to better net job growth," Morgan Stanley economist Ted Wieserman, whose team now sees nonfarm payrolls to rise by 220,000, wrote in a note to clients.

"Support probably came from favorable January weather (especially compared to some brutal winters in recent years) and fewer retail firings after there was a smaller ramp-up in temporary retail hiring for the holiday shopping season."

On the wages front, Capital Economics' Andrew Hunter argued in a note that "base effects mean that the annual growth rate of average hourly earnings probably edged down to 2.8%, from 2.9%." But, he continued, "that is likely to be only a temporary blip, with wage growth generally trending higher this year."

manufacturing

Going into the jobs report, it's also worth taking a look at which sectors are actually hiring.

The most recent Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed that there were 5.522 million job openings in November. Notably, 68% of those jobs are in five industries: health care, professional services, retail, hospitality and food services, and government, according to data cited by Andrew Chamberlain, chief economist at Glassdoor.

"It’s worth noting that America’s much-debated manufacturing sector is one of the smallest job producers in the nation right now," he added. "Although the US manufacturing sector is massively productive and accounts for 11.8% of the nation’s output, there are only about 185,000 job openings for durable goods manufacturing today—the sector that includes most hard-working automobile and machine-building jobs that feature prominently in national political debates. That amounts to just 3% of today’s job openings."

Additionally, the "non-durable" manufacturing job openings (aka jobs like making pre-packaged food or paper products) make up about 3% of the total. And mining and logging account for about 0.3% of job openings, according to Chamberlain.

In any case, stay tuned for Friday's jobs report, which crosses the wires at 8:30 a.m. ET.

SEE ALSO: What 25 major world leaders and dictators looked like when they were young

Join the conversation about this story »

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Bitcoin's Privacy Gets 'Failing Grade' in 2016 Threat Report

CoinDesk, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

A new report highlights some of the key privacy threats faced by bitcoin users in 2016.

Source

A trader psychologist who consulted on Showtime's 'Billions' reveals the biggest mistake traders make

Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

Denise Shull

Denise Shull is a decision coach and performance architect who consulted on Showtime’s BILLIONS for the Wendy Rhodes character, the in-house psychotherapist for Axelrod hedge fund. 

A former trader, Shull graduated from Harvard Kennedy’s executive program in “Investment Decisions and Behavioral Finance”  and holds a Masters in neuroscience from the University of Chicago. Her thesis research, “The Neurobiology of Freud’s Repetition Compulsion” was cited as one of the earliest groundbreaking papers in the emerging field of neuropsychoanalysis. Bloomberg’s Tradebook created their trader brain exercise game based on her work.   

Tina Wadhwa: How do people’s emotions shape their feelings about investments and risk-taking?

Denise Shull: How investors think they make decisions isn’t really what’s happening. It only looks like a purely thought driven, mathematical analysis. Neuroscience consistently demonstrates that thoughts are the product of feelings, emotions and the body. These elements constantly cycle in a reciprocal way and create what we call confidence or conviction – the aspect of decision making that investors do acknowledge but that is feeling/emotion based.

There are levels of feeling and emotion that play into perception: Basic body – tiredness will cause you to see less risk. Affect – or the difference before and after coffee, like a mood or outlook. Emotion – an intense form of affect with meaning that is partially about the situation and partially about one’s personality and past.

For investors and traders, two examples are the fear of missing out and the fear of future regret. FOMO, a term I began using in 2007, causes people to get into positions they haven’t fully vetted. FOFR causes them to say in positions that aren’t working. In the latter, there is a great fear of getting out at the worst possible moment and feeling "stupid." Investors want to avoid that at any cost and it keeps them in losers for too long.

Fractal emotions are the expectations and explanations for why things happen to you in the same way. The repetitive emotions we all feel that make one situation look like another. This is where life experience really comes into play.

Examples from my clients include a former rugby player who always wanted to add to a position whenever it wasn’t going well – he was trying to power through it. Conversely, an equity derivatives guy who could never get as big as he wanted into a position. This came from a mother who was so risk-averse she wouldn’t let him play soccer growing up.

nyse, new york stock exchange, trader, traders, watching, waiting, nervous, anticipation, unknown, new, news, anxious, hopeful, hope, tense, tension, bad news, horrible, stocks down, upset, slump, bi, dngWadhwa: How can investors protect themselves from emotional reactions in decision making or trading scenarios? 

Schull: Learn to separate the integral emotions – the ones with market info – from the incidental – the irrelevant ones.

The mistake is trying to set all emotion aside. It won’t work and you don’t want it to otherwise you would have no confidence or conviction. Worse, by setting it all aside, the fractal or life experience ones will win at the worst possible moment. Their energy builds up to the point that it compels action – if the emotions are shunned.

Emotional sophistication – understanding both how emotions work and how they work for you – allows an investor or trader to glean important information from their unconscious pattern recognition which is delivered as a what we call gut feel or intuition. It may just be telling you to dig deeper. Fear in it’s pure form is trying to help you by pointing out a risk or deficit in information.

Within all of this, one way to help oneself is to understand the true nature of the market: A never-ending global poker game. This matters because in contrast to sports, where the game or race always has a known end-point, your brain plays tricks on you because there is always another quarter to play. This level of possibility plays into fear of future regret for example. The uncertainty, you can always make a case for up and down, also causes your brain to go to context and pattern recognition more than it would if you were engineering a bridge where there are specific quantifiable relationships.

Investors try to deduce those same type of relationships but they don’t exist. The market is a social, human game. All you are ever doing is better that someone else will think it’s a good idea to pay more for something in a year. It’s really social prediction which is uncertain. But it helps to recognize the essential question of why will the guy next door buy this from me for more. Brain science shows that people who are good at that question are better price predictors.

Feeling the angst of the uncertain, unknowable market future helps one navigate it better. Research shows that labeling one’s feelings precisely and accurately is the best way to sort them, the best way to not act on the irrelevant or incidental ones and the best way to understand the information component in the body-based sensations of affect and emotion.

The ability to recognize the sensations of your body is called interoception and it’s associated with greater P&L and longer track records in traders. It’s also associated with more loss aversion but not more risk aversion – meaning that the person can get out of positions that aren’t working and get into ones that are.

billions3Wadhwa: What types of personalities show up in high-stakes situations?

Shull: I think there are some personalities who love the game of risk more than others. They love the human game of it and it’s really about that – everyone thinks it’s about the big paycheck but it’s not. It’s about winning the poker game – being able to predict the future, the way the cards will play out, better than the next guy.

Wadhwa: What are the biggest mistakes investors and traders make?

Shull: It’s fair to say that holding onto positions too long -  looking for more profit or hoping to recoup a loss -  is the biggest mistake. Both stem from unrealized fears - fear of missing out or fear of future regret respectively but in their quest to set their emotions aside, investors fail to recognize these fears as the motivating factors and rationalize not getting out. To behavioral finance, it looks like confirmation bias and on one level it is, just driven by the fears of missing out on more profits or the regret of getting out right before the position comes back to you.

SEE ALSO: One of the most powerful women on Wall Street on dollar strength, bond volatility and how investors can protect themselves

Join the conversation about this story »

NOW WATCH: Here's how to use one of the many apps to buy and trade bitcoin

A trader psychologist who consulted on Showtime's 'Billions' reveals the biggest mistake traders make

Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

DKS green dress side.JPG

Denise Shull is a decision coach and performance architect who consulted on Showtime’s BILLIONS for the Wendy Rhodes character, the in-house psychotherapist for Axelrod hedge fund. 

A former trader, Shull graduated from Harvard Kennedy’s executive program in “Investment Decisions and Behavioral Finance”  and holds a Masters in neuroscience from the University of Chicago. Her thesis research, “The Neurobiology of Freud’s Repetition Compulsion” was cited as one of the earliest groundbreaking papers in the emerging field of neuropsychoanalysis. Bloomberg’s Tradebook created their trader brain exercise game based on her work.   

Tina Wadhwa: How do people’s emotions shape their feelings about investments and risk-taking?

Denise Shull: How investors think they make decisions isn’t really what’s happening. It only looks like a purely thought driven, mathematical analysis. Neuroscience consistently demonstrates that thoughts are the product of feelings, emotions and the body. These elements constantly cycle in a reciprocal way and create what we call confidence or conviction – the aspect of decision making that investors do acknowledge but that is feeling/emotion based.

There are levels of feeling and emotion that play into perception: Basic body – tiredness will cause you to see less risk. Affect – or the difference before and after coffee, like a mood or outlook. Emotion – an intense form of affect with meaning that is partially about the situation and partially about one’s personality and past.

For investors and traders, two examples are the fear of missing out and the fear of future regret. FOMO, a term I began using in 2007, causes people to get into positions they haven’t fully vetted. FOFR causes them to say in positions that aren’t working. In the latter, there is a great fear of getting out at the worst possible moment and feeling "stupid." Investors want to avoid that at any cost and it keeps them in losers for too long.

Fractal emotions are the expectations and explanations for why things happen to you in the same way. The repetitive emotions we all feel that make one situation look like another. This is where life experience really comes into play.

Examples from my clients include a former rugby player who always wanted to add to a position whenever it wasn’t going well – he was trying to power through it. Conversely, an equity derivatives guy who could never get as big as he wanted into a position. This came from a mother who was so risk-averse she wouldn’t let him play soccer growing up.

nyse, new york stock exchange, trader, traders, watching, waiting, nervous, anticipation, unknown, new, news, anxious, hopeful, hope, tense, tension, bad news, horrible, stocks down, upset, slump, bi, dngWadhwa: How can investors protect themselves from emotional reactions in decision making or trading scenarios? 

Schull: Learn to separate the integral emotions – the ones with market info – from the incidental – the irrelevant ones.

The mistake is trying to set all emotion aside. It won’t work and you don’t want it to otherwise you would have no confidence or conviction. Worse, by setting it all aside, the fractal or life experience ones will win at the worst possible moment. Their energy builds up to the point that it compels action – if the emotions are shunned.

Emotional sophistication – understanding both how emotions work and how they work for you – allows an investor or trader to glean important information from their unconscious pattern recognition which is delivered as a what we call gut feel or intuition. It may just be telling you to dig deeper. Fear in it’s pure form is trying to help you by pointing out a risk or deficit in information.

Within all of this, one way to help oneself is to understand the true nature of the market: A never-ending global poker game. This matters because in contrast to sports, where the game or race always has a known end-point, your brain plays tricks on you because there is always another quarter to play. This level of possibility plays into fear of future regret for example. The uncertainty, you can always make a case for up and down, also causes your brain to go to context and pattern recognition more than it would if you were engineering a bridge where there are specific quantifiable relationships.

Investors try to deduce those same type of relationships but they don’t exist. The market is a social, human game. All you are ever doing is better that someone else will think it’s a good idea to pay more for something in a year. It’s really social prediction which is uncertain. But it helps to recognize the essential question of why will the guy next door buy this from me for more. Brain science shows that people who are good at that question are better price predictors.

Feeling the angst of the uncertain, unknowable market future helps one navigate it better. Research shows that labeling one’s feelings precisely and accurately is the best way to sort them, the best way to not act on the irrelevant or incidental ones and the best way to understand the information component in the body-based sensations of affect and emotion.

The ability to recognize the sensations of your body is called interception and it’s associated with greater P&L and longer track records in traders. It’s also associated with more loss aversion but not more risk aversion – meaning that the person can get out of positions that aren’t working and get into ones that are.

billions3Wadhwa: What types of personalities show up in high-stakes situations?

Shull: I think there are some personalities who love the game of risk more than others. They love the human game of it and it’s really about that – everyone thinks it’s about the big paycheck but it’s not. It’s about winning the poker game – being able to predict the future, the way the cards will play out, better than the next guy.

Wadhwa: What are the biggest mistakes investors and traders make?

Shull: It’s fair to say that holding onto positions too long -  looking for more profit or hoping to recoup a loss -  is the biggest mistake. Both stem from unrealized fears - fear of missing out or fear of future regret respectively but in their quest to set their emotions aside, investors fail to recognize these fears as the motivating factors and rationalize not getting out. To behavioral finance, it looks like confirmation bias and on one level it is, just driven by the fears of missing out on more profits or the regret of getting out right before the position comes back to you.

SEE ALSO: One of the most powerful women on Wall Street on dollar strength, bond volatility and how investors can protect themselves

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The ruble is soaring after US Treasury amends sanctions on Russia's FSB

Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

The Russian ruble is surging after the US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control published an amendment to former President Barack Obama's sanctions order against Russia to "authorize certain transactions" with Russia's Federal Security Service.

The ruble soared by as much as 2.2% at 58.8549 per dollar as of 12:34 p.m. ET. 

It has retraced some of its gains, but is still up by 1.3% at 59.3280 per dollar as of 12:54 p.m. ET.

Screen Shot 2017 02 02 at 12.34.20 PM

The new authorization will allow US companies to pay up to $5,000 per year to the FSB — which oversees technology imports into Russia — to secure licenses from the security services to export information technology products to Russia, as long as other aspects of the sanctions order aren't violated, according to the document published by the Treasury.

The Obama administration had imposed sanctions against the FSB first in April 2015 and again in December 2016.

Head over here for more details on the sanctions decision.

SEE ALSO: Legendary physicist Freeman Dyson talks about math, nuclear rockets, and astounding things about the universe

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Bitcoiner Pepper-Sprayed at UC Berkeley Protests

CryptoCoins News, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

[…]

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Dutch Tax Authority Clarifies: Bitcoin Mixing Will Not Be Banned, But Will Raise Suspicion

Bitcoin Magazine, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

TRUMP ON NAFTA: We will 'speed it up if possible'

Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

president donald trump

President Donald Trump said on Thursday that he wants to speed up talks regarding the North American Free Trade Agreement, or NAFTA.

"I have very serious concerns about NAFTA. NAFTA's been a catastrophe for our country," he said. 

"I want to change it. And maybe we do it — maybe we do a new NAFTA with an extra 'F' in the term NAFTA. You know what the 'F' is for, right? Free and fair trade. Not just free trade. Free and fair trade. Because it's very unfair," he continued. 

"So all of the statutory guidelines we're adhering to, I would like to speed it up if possible."

(Technically, "fair trade" is a term for trade in which fair prices are paid to producers in developing countries.)

Trump also said that he wants Commerce secretary nominee Wilbur Ross to represent the US in the NAFTA negotiations. He also added that he does not care whether it is a "renovation" of NAFTA or a "brand new NAFTA."

Notably, Ross said at his confirmation hearing that NAFTA would be an early priority for his department. He said he was "pro-trade," but only as long as it is "sensible trade." 

Trump made the debate over free trade one of the central topics of his campaign after criticizing China, Mexico, and Japan. He argued in favor of ripping up trade deals, said NAFTA was "the worst trade deal in the history of the country," and called TPP "a rape of our country."

Protectionism has become more popular as American workers worry about losing jobs to other countries. And politicians across the political spectrum zeroed in on these anxieties during the 2016 campaign as they vied for the top job in the White House.

About 89% of Americans said they thought that the loss of US jobs to China was a somewhat or very serious issue, according to Pew Research statistics cited by Bank of America Merrill Lynch's Ethan Harris and Lisa Berlin in May. Moreover, only 46% of Americans said they thought NAFTA was good for the economy.

There is some empirical evidence to back up those grievances. However, trade is not the only factor that has affected American jobs in general and the manufacturing sector in particular; automation has also been a contributor.

In a recent note to clients, Capital Economics' Andrew Hunter included a chart comparing manufacturing output with manufacturing employment. Manufacturing employment has been falling since the mid-1980s and started dropping at a faster rate around 2001 — which coincides with China entering the World Trade Organization. Meanwhile, manufacturing output has been increasing since the mid-1980s and is now near its pre-crisis high.

In other words, firms have overall been able to increase output with fewer workers over the years, which is likely at least partially because of automation.

screen shot 2017 01 20 at 124600 pm

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The biggest health insurers are freaking out about the uncertainty surrounding Obamacare's repeal

Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

paul ryan

  • Republicans' plan to repeal and replace Obamacare has created uncertainty around the law's individual heathcare exchanges.
  • Insurers are considering not offering plans on the exchanges in 2018 because of the unclear future.
  • If insurers pull out of the exchanges because of the uncertainty, it could cause the "death spiral" Republicans have been talking about for years.

The Republican plan to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act (ACA), better known as Obamacare, has introduced a high level of uncertainty into the health insurance market and the CEOs of major insurers are concerned about the future.

Over the past few weeks, a number of insurance executives have expressed concern and uncertainty about their business strategy regarding the ACA's individual insurance exchanges.

The exchanges, where people not covered through their employer or Medicaid/Medicare can buy insurance, are one of the key parts of the ACA being target by the GOP's repeal strategy.

Given that Republican lawmakers are still in the midst of a repeal of the law and have not laid out a cohesive plan for replacement, insurance executives are taking a cautious look into the future.

Insurers are nervous

"We have no intention of being in the market for 2018," said Aetna CEO Mark Bertolini during his company's earnings call on Tuesday. "Currently, where we stand, we'd have to have markets worked up ... prices worked up for April 2017 to apply, and there is no possible way that we'll be able to do that given the unclear nature [of where] that regulation is headed."

Insurers must submit plans, including premium prices, to federal and state regulators for the 2018 plan year in April of this year.

Given the short turnaround time, it may be even harder to get insurers to commit to offering plans on the exchanges in 2018.

Anthem CEO Joseph Swedish echoed similar uncertainties during his company's earnings call on Wednesday despite the fact that the company expects its ACA plans to be "break-even to slightly profitable in 2017."

"While the direction in Washington has been positive, we still need certainty about short-term fixes in order to determine the extent of our participation in the individual market in 2018," said Swedish.

A number of high profile insurers, including Aetna, UnitedHealth Group, Cigna, and Humana — four of the five large public insurers — decreased their exposure to the ACA exchanges in 2017 due to financial losses.

Mark Bertolini, Chairman and CEO of Aetna, participates in a panel discussion at the 2015 Fortune Global Forum in San Francisco, California November 3, 2015. REUTERS/Elijah Nouvelage/File Photo

Despite the already declining insurer participation, it seems that the uncertainty created by the repeal has only hastened the abandonment of the exchanges.

Even insurers that have been profitable on the exchanges are talking about leaving because of the repeal plan.

Mario Molina, CEO of Molina Healthcare, told Politico's Victoria Colliver that despite being successful on the exchanges, his company may not stick with the ACA if they continue to lack clarity on the future.

"People keep asking me, ‘Are you going to stay in?'" Molina told Politico. "I don’t know. It’s kind of like asking whether you’re going to buy a car in 2018. I’m not going to commit to something when I don’t know what the product looks like."

In a testimony before the Senate on Wednesday, Marilyn Tavenner, the CEO of the leading health insurance lobby group America’s Health Insurance Plans and former head of the Centers of Medicare and Medicaid Services, told lawmakers that quick action is needed for insurers to be able to make 2018 work.

"Right now, plans are trying to price for ‘18, and the uncertainty around cost-sharing subsidies and the tax credits would cause them to hesitate to price because we need to understand what the funding support is going to be, because that affects premiums," said Tavenner.

Tavenner also noted that the companies "need predictability for long periods of time" in order to offer effective plans.

Creating a "death spiral"

Republicans have long maintained that the law is collapsing on its own and is in a "death spiral" due to insurers' losses and declining numbers of insurers participating, eventually leading to lower consumer enrollment.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, however projected that enrollment and costs would stabilize over the nest 10 years. With insurers pulling out, however, health policy experts have said the uncertainty could end up creating the "death spiral" that the GOP has long feared.

President Donald Trump has expressed a desire to get a replacement plan in place quickly, which may mitigate some of the uncertainty and minimize disruptions in the individual health insurance markets. He also has reiterated that he doesn't want the exchanges to collapse and leave people with higher costs or no coverage even though Democrats would "own it."

SEE ALSO: Obamacare's final countdown

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Daimler Financial Services Acquires Bitcoin Operator PayCash Europe to Launch Mobility Service “Mercedes Pay”

Bitcoin Magazine, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

Amazon is rallying ahead of its earnings (AMZN)

Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

Amazon is up 1.2% at $842.09 per share on Thursday ahead of its fourth-quarter earnings results, which will be released after markets close. 

The online retail giant is expected to report much stronger earnings and sales following a record holiday season for online sales. Among the top-selling devices were the company’s own Alexa-powered smart devices, such as Echo Dot and Amazon Echo.

Here are Wall Street's expectations compiled by Bloomberg:

  • Earnings-per-share (EPS): $1.36
  • Revenue: $44.67 billion

In other news, Amazon continues to expand from its traditional e-commerce business. Amazon is building its first air cargo hub for $1.49 billion in another move to build out its logistics operations. The company also announced it is expanding into the auto parts market. Amazon has struck deals with several of the largest auto parts suppliers in the US to sell their products directly through Amazon, the New York Post reported.

Earlier this month, Amazon received an Oscar nomination for best picture,  thanks to its indie drama, "Manchester by the Sea," starring Casey Affleck and Michelle Williams.

Screen Shot 2017 02 02 at 11.22.36 AM

 

SEE ALSO: Amazon gains after Oscar nomination

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Amazon is rallying ahead of its earnings (AMZN)

Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

Amazon is up 1.2% at $842.09 per share on Thursday ahead of its fourth-quarter earnings results, which will be released after markets close. 

The online retail giant is expected to report much stronger earnings and sales following a record holiday season for online sales. Among the top-selling devices were the company’s own Alexa-powered smart devices, such as Echo Dot and Amazon Echo.

Here are Wall Street's expectations compiled by Bloomberg:

  • Earnings-per-share (EPS): $1.36
  • Revenue: $44.67 billion

In other news, Amazon continues to expand from its traditional e-commerce business. Amazon is building its first air cargo hub for $1.49 billion in another move to build out its logistics operations. The company also announced it is expanding into the auto parts market. Amazon has struck deals with several of the largest auto parts suppliers in the US to sell their products directly through Amazon, the New York Post reported.

Earlier this month, Amazon received an Oscar nomination for best picture,  thanks to its indie drama, "Manchester by the Sea," starring Casey Affleck and Michelle Williams.

Screen Shot 2017 02 02 at 11.22.36 AM

 

SEE ALSO: Amazon gains after Oscar nomination

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Bitcoin Price is Within Touching Distance of $1,000

CryptoCoins News, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

[…]

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Central banks '15 minutes of fame' are coming to an end — but it's happening for all the wrong reasons

Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

Mark Carney

Central bankers grew so accustomed to being front-page news during the global financial crisis and its aftermath that it must come as an adjustment to suddenly be relegated to the back pages. 

Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, says he views it as a positive development. "In many respects, we're coming to the last seconds of central bankers' 15 minutes of fame, to use the Warhol line, which is a good thing," Carney said during his press conference on Thursday that followed the Bank of England's policy decision. 

"It's a more balanced policy mix. Also, structural policy is becoming more important, trade policy clearly important here and elsewhere."

However, the former Goldman Sachs partner's reading of the situation may be too optimistic. After all, the reason the Bank of England, and the U.S. Federal Reserve, have suddenly become less relevant is that both are facing levels of political turmoil and uncertainty not seen in decades. 

In the UK, a slow, halting Brexit process is pushing up inflation and depressing investment, which is why policymakers decided to leave interest rates on hold Thursday. 

Stateside, the first two weeks of Donald Trump's presidency have been a whirlwind of rolling mini-crises that threaten to become bigger problems down the line, most recently an unusual diplomatic spat with ally and trading partner Australia. This is on top with ongoing beef with Mexico, China, Iran, and others. 

Making interest rate policy boring again would be wonderful if the US and the UK had suddenly embarked on constructive debates about better ways to use fiscal policy or other major economic initiatives. But that's just not what's happening.

On the upside, the turmoil simplifies the Fed's decision-making — why raise interest rates when the Trump uncertainty factor so overwhelmingly clouds the outlook. 

 

SEE ALSO: Fed officials are floating the idea of reversing a key crisis-era decision — but it's too soon

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F2Pool, Litecoin’s Biggest Pool, Will Upgrade to Segwit

CryptoCoins News, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

[…]

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Bitcoin's Price is Flirting With $1,000 Again

CoinDesk, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

Bitcoin markets are breaking out, inching closer to $1,000.

Source

Facebook is climbing after its blockbuster quarter (FB)

Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

Facebook is up 0.7% at $131.24 a share after reporting a blockbuster fourth quarter on Wednesday.

Mobile ads drove a 50% jump in revenue and the social network moved closer to amassing an audience of two billion monthly users.

Facebook managed to beat growth targets across the board despite concerns that it's running out of room to place ads in its News Feed. 

Here are the key numbers from Q4:

  • EPS (adjusted): $1.41 vs. $1.31 expected, up from $0.79 in the year-ago period.
  • Revenue: $8.81 billion vs. $8.51 billion expected, up 51% from $5.84 billion in the year-ago period.
  • Monthly active users: 1.86 billion vs. 1.84 billion expected.
  • Daily active users: 1.23 billion vs. 1.21 billion expected.

Screen Shot 2017 02 02 at 9.35.57 AM

SEE ALSO: Facebook beats expectations across the board with blowout fourth-quarter results

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Facebook is climbing after its blockbuster quarter (FB)

Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

Facebook is up 0.7% at $131.24 a share after reporting a blockbuster fourth quarter on Wednesday.

Mobile ads drove a 50% jump in revenue and the social network moved closer to amassing an audience of two billion monthly users.

Facebook managed to beat growth targets across the board despite concerns that it's running out of room to place ads in its News Feed. 

Here are the key numbers from Q4:

  • EPS (adjusted): $1.41 vs. $1.31 expected, up from $0.79 in the year-ago period.
  • Revenue: $8.81 billion vs. $8.51 billion expected, up 51% from $5.84 billion in the year-ago period.
  • Monthly active users: 1.86 billion vs. 1.84 billion expected.
  • Daily active users: 1.23 billion vs. 1.21 billion expected.

Screen Shot 2017 02 02 at 9.35.57 AM

SEE ALSO: Facebook beats expectations across the board with blowout fourth-quarter results

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Trump is 'a neo-liberal nightmare' but some of his economic policy 'makes perfect sense'

Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

rex tillerson donad trump

Albert Edwards, the über-bearish strategist at Societe Generale, thinks President Donald Trump may be on to something with his economic policies.

"The Donald Administration might be a neo-liberal nightmare, but stripping away some of his more controversial rhetoric on immigration, a lot of what he says on the economic front makes perfect sense to me," wrote Edwards in a note to clients on Thursday.

Specifically, Edwards is a fan of two Trump ideas: deregulation of US businesses and calling out Germany for its currency manipulation.

On the latter, Edwards said that Germany was "one of the biggest currency manipulators in the world," echoing the sentiments of one of Trump's top trade advisors, Peter Navarro. Navarro told the Financial Times on Tuesday that Germany was using the "grossly undervalued" euro to gain an edge over the rest of the European Union and the US.

"This is not a new issue and it has bubbled to the surface a number of times in recent years," wrote Edwards. "But whereas both the US Treasury and the EU Commission have merely grumbled but then done absolutely nothing, the Trump Administration seems far more willing to act assertively."

The bigger focus for Edwards was regulation. The strategist said that despite being "pretty liberal (socialist even)," he believes that decreasing regulation is key for economic sustainability.

This does not preclude a government from having a large amount of public sector spending, according to Edwards, but more favorable regulation conditions in a country can have a bigger impact on successful economic growth and productivity growth than simple tax and spend.

"The US is a low tax and spend nation that has strangled its corporate sector," said Edwards. "That means the small company sector, which is traditionally the engine for jobs growth, has been struggling."

Edwards thinks Trump has the ability to strip away regulation and drive corporate and economic growth.

Trump signed an executive order on Monday that for every one regulation put in place by the executive branch, two must be rolled back. While this doesn't account for the size of regulations or their impact, it signaled that Trump was serious about campaign promises regarding deregulation to some degree.

Edwards notes that the US is a "respectable" eighth in the World Bank's "Ease of Doing Business" ranking of countries, but that is mostly due to its high marks on companies' ability to "get credit" and "resolving insolvency." However, outside of those two ranks, there is a significant amount of regulation.

"So US companies excel at leveraging up and going bust - great! In most of the other eight categories the US ranking is pretty appalling and if we average them we come up with the US at a lowly 37th position overall," concluded Edwards. "There is much work indeed for The Donald."

SEE ALSO: Fewer people are buying gun ammunition because of Trump's win

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Bitcoin Evades Prohibitive Ban by UAE Central Bank

CryptoCoins News, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

The UAE's Central Bank isn't banning bitcoin.

The post Bitcoin Evades Prohibitive Ban by UAE Central Bank appeared first on CryptoCoinsNews.

Ralph Lauren is tanking after its CEO abruptly resigns (RL)

Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

Ralph Lauren is down almost 10% at $78.62 a share ahead of the opening bell after its CEO resigned on Tuesday.

Reuters reports that Stefan Larsson, its chief executive for just over a year, will step down on May 1 after contention with chairman Ralph Lauren over the direction of the company.

In other challenges, the fashion company reported a 12% drop in holiday quarter revenue to $1.71 billion due to weak consumer demand.

Screen Shot 2017 02 02 at 8.25.33 AM

SEE ALSO: Ralph Lauren CEO to step down after disagreements with founder

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Ralph Lauren is tanking after its CEO abruptly resigns (RL)

Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

Ralph Lauren is down almost 10% at $78.62 a share ahead of the opening bell after its CEO resigned on Tuesday.

Reuters reports that Stefan Larsson, its chief executive for just over a year, will step down on May 1 after contention with chairman Ralph Lauren over the direction of the company.

In other challenges, the fashion company reported a 12% drop in holiday quarter revenue to $1.71 billion due to weak consumer demand.

Screen Shot 2017 02 02 at 8.25.33 AM

SEE ALSO: Ralph Lauren CEO to step down after disagreements with founder

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Fidelity’s Charity Arm Raised $7 Million in Bitcoin Donations in 2016

CoinDesk, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

Fidelity Charitable, the public charity arm of mutual fund giant Fidelity Investments, raised $7m in bitcoin donations last year.

Source

Here come initial jobless claims...

Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

jobless

The latest reading on initial jobless claims will cross the wires at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Economists forecast that claims, which count the number of people who applied for unemployment insurance for the first time in the past week, ticked down to 250,000.

Claims rose by more than expected the prior week, up by 22,000 to 259,000.

As of last Thursday, claims have been below 300,000 for 99 consecutive weeks.

Initial jobless claims are used as a real-time proxy for the pace of layoffs and the overall health of the labor market, since people usually file for benefits soon after they lose their jobs.

Refresh this page for updates at 8:30 a.m. ET.

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459 Million Bitcoins: Exchange Volume Reached Peak Levels in Q4

CoinDesk, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

The fourth quarter of 2016 was a volatile period for the price of bitcoin, as speculation increased and exchange-traded volume reached peak levels.

Source

Bitcoin is on the verge of breaking through $1,000

Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

Bitcoin is threatening to reclaim the $1,000 level after crashing below it earlier this year. The cryptocurrency is higher by 0.9% at $994.18 per coin as of 7:15 a.m. ET.  

It's been a wild year so far for bitcoin. It began 2017 with a 20% rally during the first five days of the year before crashing 35% on concerns of a crackdown on trading in China 

Thursday's gains have extended Bitcoin's winning streak to a sixth straight session as trade appears to be benefitting from uncertainty surrounding the Trump presidency. The cryptocurrency has gained nearly 10% since Trump was inaugurated on January 20. 

Bitcoin

SEE ALSO: The Mexican peso has done something shocking since Trump took office

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Bitfinex's 'Hack Credit' Token Reaches All-Time Price High

CoinDesk, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

Bitfinex's BFX digital asset – issued to users who lost bitcoin in an August hack – surged to a record high on 1st February.

Source

Indian Central Bank: Bitcoin Isn’t Authorized, Use with Caution

CryptoCoins News, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

[…]

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