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STOCKS CLIMB ON JOBS DATA: Here's what you need to know

Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

Sasha Digiulian climbs at the Shawangunks in New Paltz, NY on June 20, 2016.

Stocks gained on Friday as US payrolls beat estimates, improving sentiment in an equity market that just one day prior suffered its biggest loss in six weeks.

The S&P 500 rose 0.7%, while the Dow added 0.5% and the Nasdaq surged 1.1%. The Nasdaq, heavily weighted toward mega-cap tech stocks, has been a lightning rod for volatility in recent weeks, and Friday's trading was another example of that.

First up, the scoreboard:

  • Dow: 21,419.12, +99.08, (+0.47%)
  • S&P 500: 2,426.27, +16.74, (+0.70%)
  • Nasdaq: 6,157.53, +68.03, (+1.12%)
  • US 10-year yield: 2.39%, +0.02
  • WTI crude oil: $44.22, -1.30, -2.86%

1. Jobs report beats big, unemployment rate climbs. The US economy gained 222,000 jobs in June, many more than expected. Meanwhile, the labor-force participation rate indeed increased to 62.8% from 62.7%.

2. Markets are overreacting to 'huffing and puffing' central bankers. Investor anxiety is creeping higher amid tightening monetary conditions, and Bank of America Merrill Lynch doesn't necessarily agree with that reaction.

3. Bitcoin and Ethereum are 'cannibalizing' gold. So says Tom Lee of Fundstrat, who thinks thinks that the growing preference for the cryptocurrencies over gold is actually helping contribute to the torrid gains in the fledgling products.

4. Everyone's scared of the wrong thing when it comes to the Fed's plan for its $4.5 trillion balance sheet, according to David Rosenberg. He says that when the inevitable unwind happens, it could catch traders in both the bond and stock markets off guard

5. Blue Apron is trading at half what it hoped to get in its IPO — a week after its debut. The most cited is the fact that, while Blue Apron was trying to drum up interest in its offering, Amazon struck a deal to buy Whole Foods. 

ADDITIONALLY:

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The huge gap between America's rich and superrich exposes a fundamental misunderstanding about inequality

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Here's what happened the last time the US was reckless enough to try a steel tariff

Silver is getting crushed after briefly recovering from flash crash

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Bitcoin and Ethereum are 'cannibalizing' gold

Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

Molten gold

Investors have cash to burn right now, and based on the astronomical performance of cryptocurrencies like bitcoin and Ethereum, that's where a lot of it is getting funneled.

This is coming at the expense of gold, says Tom Lee, the managing partner and head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors. In fact, he thinks that the growing preference for the cryptocurrencies over gold is actually helping contribute to the torrid gains in the fledgling products.

Bitcoin is up a whopping 172% percent this year, closing at $2,607.02 per coin on Thursday. Ethereum has skyrocketed 3,200% over the same period, sitting at $266.01.

One main factor driving demand for cryptocurrencies is the reduction in supply that's been seen in recent months, according to Lee. He notes that the rate of bitcoin units added has been more than halved over the past year, to 4.4% from 9.3%. With mining slowing down, bitcoin won't reach its theoretical maximum number of units until 2045 or later.

Meanwhile, Lee finds that gold production has risen "sharply" since 2009, and now sits at 3,100 metric tons, the highest on record.

"Cryptocurrencies are cannibalizing demand for gold," he wrote in a client note on Friday. "Bitcoin is arguably becoming a scarcer store of value. Investors need to identify strategies to leverage this potential rise in cryptocurrencies."

So with all of that considered, how high can bitcoin go?

Fundstrat's base case calls for the cryptocurrency to expand eight-fold to roughly $20,000 per unit by 2022. But in the most bullish scenario, bitcoin could reach as high as $55,000 over the same period.

"Our model shows gold’s value being relatively static against a rise in bitcoin," Lee says.

One potential wild card that may speed up investor allocation into cryptocurrencies could be buying by central banks. Bitcoin currently has an aggregate value of $42 billion right now, and if that climbs above $500 billion, it's a very real possibility, according to Lee.

"Already central banks have looked into this possibility," Lee says. "In our view, this is a game changer, enhancing the legitimacy of the currency and likely accelerating the substitution for gold."

Screen Shot 2017 07 07 at 1.00.45 PM

SEE ALSO: Markets are overreacting to 'huffing and puffing' central bankers

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Polish Regulators Warn Banks and Consumers on Cryptocurrency Risks

CoinDesk, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

Poland's central bank said today that investors and banks should avoid dealing with digital currencies like bitcoin and ether.

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What you need to know on Wall Street today

Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

Welcome to Finance Insider, Business Insider's summary of the top stories of the past 24 hours. 

The US economy gained 222,000 jobs in June, many more than expected, according to a report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday. Economists had forecast that nonfarm payrolls increased by 178,000, according to Bloomberg.

Labor force participation ticked up, and wage growth missed expectations. The gap between white and black unemployment in America is now at a record low. North of the border, Canada added more jobs than expected in June, although most were part-time positions.

Berkshire Hathaway Energy said Friday that it agreed to acquire Energy Future Holdings for $9 billion in cash, a purchase that would eventually hand it the electric-utility giant Oncor.

Irene Rosenfeld, the CEO of Mondelēz International, doesn’t seem interested in buying Nestlé’s candy businessShe also explained what it's like to be targeted by Bill Ackman and Nelson Peltz.

And we got the play-by-play account of how Amazon's takeover offer for Whole Foods went down.

Markets are overreacting to "huffing and puffing" central bankers, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch. And everyone's scared of the wrong thing when it comes to the Fed's plan for its $4.5 trillion balance sheet, according to David Rosenberg. 

Bitcoin is sliding. And a top exec at one of America's oldest banks explained why Ethereum holds so much promise.

Missouri's governor says raising the minimum wage will take "money out of people's pockets" — so he's lowering itUS Secretary of Energy Rick Perry flubbed one of the most fundamental lessons of modern economics. And the huge gap between America’s rich and super-rich exposes a fundamental misunderstanding about inequality.

New emails show how mistrust and suspicions blew up the relationship between Uber's Travis Kalanick and Google's Larry Page. Tesla's bloodbath racked up a $1.4 billion profit for short sellers in just three days. And Volvo's all-out assault on Tesla's turf is as much about its future as its past.

Lastly, Goldman Sachs president David Solomon is selling his enormous Aspen estate for $36 million.

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Bitcoin is sliding

Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

Bitcoin is flirting with a break below $2,500 a coin. The cryptocurrency trades down 3.7% at $2,510 and is threatening its lowest close since June 27. It's rival, ethereum is also under pressure, down 8% at $244.

Friday's slide comes amid a relatively quiet week for bitcoin. It's price has been locked in a range between $2,474 and $2,639 since Monday. That's the day when Sheba Jafari, the head of technical strategy at Goldman Sachs, warned in a note to clients that bitcoin could fall as low as $1,857 before surging as high as $3,915.

Recently, there has been a bit of skepticism surrounding the cryptocurrency. Back in early June, tech billionaire Mark Cuban said bitcoin was a "bubble." He tweeted, "I think it's in a bubble. I just don't know when or how much it corrects. When everyone is bragging about how easy they are making $=bubble."

Last week, Jeffrey Kleintop, the chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, suggested bitcoin was in a bubble unlike any we had ever seen before

Bitcoin

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A top exec at one of America's oldest banks explains why Ethereum holds so much promise

Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

unnamed 12

Cryptocurrencies have been red-hot lately. The price of bitcoin and an ether token, for instance, have been on a tear and are up 121% and 490%, respectively, since April 6.

Ether tokens and bitcoin are built on a technology called blockchain. That's a kind of digital ledger that records and verifies transactions made on it. 

Ether tokens, which are built on ethereum blockchain, are newer to the crypto-scene than bitcoins, which can trace their origins back to 2009.

Mike McGovern, the new head of Investor Services Fintech Offerings at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co, one of the oldest private banks in the US, thinks one blockchain is clearly superior.

"When looking at bitcoin blockchain versus ethereum, there's no doubt ethereum is superior," McGovern told Business Insider in a recent phone interview.

Brown Brothers Harriman has been working on blockchain for five years, according to McGovern. It started with an R&D center in Krakow, Poland. 

One reason why McGovern thinks Ethereum is better is because its cheaper. 

"It doesn't cost as much to mine ether tokens, because it requires less electricity than bitcoin," he said.

McGovern's second reason relates to the original purpose of the two blockchains that power the currencies.

Bitcoin was designed to be a currency from the start. Vitalik Buterin, a Russian native and young programmer, however, founded Ethereum as a platform on which two parties could enter into a contract without a third party, according to Paul McNeal, a Bitcoin evangelist and long-time cryptocurrency investor.

These so-called smart contracts create trust between two parties. The ethereum platform is powered by ether tokens and can be used as both a currency and can "represent virtual shares, assets, proof of membership, and more." 

"Ethereum is not only cheaper than bitcoin, it is also more robust and has more applications outside of simply financial transactions," McGovern said. 

Here's a handy explanation from Nathaniel Popper, a New York Times reporter and author of Digital Gold: Bitcoin and the Inside Story of the Misfits and Millionaires Trying to Reinvent Money:

"Ethereum was designed to do much more than just serve as a digital money. The network of computers hooked into Ethereum can be harnessed to do computational work, essentially making it possible to run computer programs on the network, or what are referred to as decentralized applications, or Dapps. This has led to an enormous community of programmers working on the software."

McGovern isn't the only person who is more bullish on Ethereum. A survey recently cited by Popper in The New York Times indicates that a lot of business are singing the same tune. Almost 94% of surveyed firms said they feel positive about the state of ether tokens. Only 49% of firms surveyed had a positive feeling about bitcoin. 

MGT Capital, the company run by John McAfee, is one such firm. It said it would start to mine Ethereum  in its latest bid to turn a profit.  "We are more convinced each day of the growth and value of digital currencies, and our company is uniquely positioned to be a leading provider of processing power to relevant blockchains," McAfee said in a statement. 

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Lombrozo: Bitcoin Core Developers May Never Use Miner-Focused BIP 9 Signaling Again

Bitcoin Magazine, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

core-BIP9.jpg

One of the key points of contention in the politicization of Bitcoin protocol development over the past couple of years has been the concept of miner signaling. While not intended to be a vote among miners to decide the future of the Bitcoin network, Ciphrex CEO and Bitcoin Core contributor Eric Lombrozo pointed out that miners are now using the signaling process as leverage in the discussion over Bitcoin scaling.

Lombrozo made the comments during a discussion with host Thomas Hunt and Bitcoin developer Jimmy Song on Hunt’s Mad Bitcoins YouTube channel.

“This whole signaling thing is a huge problem that I think created a very terrible narrative,” said Lombrozo.

What Is BIP 9?

BIP 9 is a method of rolling out soft-fork upgrades to Bitcoin. The short description of this process is that soft-forked changes will be enabled once 95 percent of miners have signaled to the network that they are ready for activation, using a trick called “version bits.”

“It was an arbitrary system created by developers in order to coordinate smooth soft-fork transitions,” said Lombrozo. “It was not designed to be a political system for voting on controversial issues ever — that was never the intention.”

Lombrozo also noted that, in the past, soft forks have been deployed on Bitcoin without any special treatment for miners, and BIP 9 was supposed to solve some of the issues miners could face during the deployment of a soft fork.

“It was introduced for the courtesy of miners to be able to reduce their orphan rates and reduce the probability that they’re going to end up mining blocks that are actually invalid — that was the real motivation behind it,” said Lombrozo.

According to Lombrozo, the goal is still to get nodes upgraded and enforce the rules of the soft fork; BIP 9 was simply a technique to coordinate with miners.

The Ciphrex CEO added that there was nothing like miner signaling in the original version of Bitcoin, and Satoshi Nakamoto never used miner signaling for the soft forks that he deployed on the network.

“It was a mechanism that was created way later,” said Lombrozo. “And once this mechanism was created, it was abused and turned against the developers to try to extort stuff. And now it’s being used against businesses to extort stuff from them.”

BIP 9 Does Not Work With Uncooperative Miners

According to Lombrozo, BIP 9 would not have been used for Segregated Witness (SegWit) if the contributors to Bitcoin Core knew then what they know now.

“If we considered that there had been this kind of, like, contentious or adversarial situation, then BIP 9 would not have been used,” said Lombrozo. “We would not have used the signaling mechanism because it obviously does not work under those kinds of circumstances.”

In Lombrozo’s view, miners are now using the effective veto power that comes with the miner signaling process outlined in BIP 9 as leverage in the discussions around scaling Bitcoin. He also believes Bitcoin Core developers may deserve some of the blame for using BIP 9 in the first place.

“But at the same time, we only had the best of intentions at the moment,” added Lombrozo. “We thought we’d gotten through all these disagreements and it seemed like the miners were for it and going to support it … Obviously, the adversarial case needs to be considered because it’s just the nature of this network and the way that it works.”

Lombrozo suggested that miners also used miner signaling as a sort of “propaganda” tool with Bitcoin Unlimited, even though there was no activation mechanism included in the code.

Never Use BIP 9 Again?

According to Lombrozo, miners now think they have some control over the protocol due to the use of the miner signaling process outlined in BIP 9.

“Miners started thinking, ‘Hey, maybe we have control over the protocol because of this whole signaling thing,’” said Lombrozo during his discussion with Hunt and Song.

Lombrozo claimed that “we’re never going to use BIP 9 to deploy anything almost for sure” if SegWit is not activated via the current BIP 9 deployment.

As an alternative, Bitcoin Core could turn to BIP 8, which is a variation of BIP 9 from pseudonymous developer Shaolin Fry that eventually activates a soft-forking change whether miners have signaled for it or not. Miners can still activate the change before it is automatically locked-in on the network, but approval from miners is not required before that lock-in takes place.

Watch the full episode here:


The post Lombrozo: Bitcoin Core Developers May Never Use Miner-Focused BIP 9 Signaling Again appeared first on Bitcoin Magazine.

Who Watches Bitcoin's Watchmen? Scaling's Great Game of Egos

CoinDesk, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

Miners, startups, developers. CoinDesk editor Pete Rizzo takes a look at the cast of characters behind bitcoin's escalating scaling debate.

Source

Life After Coinbase: Can Charlie Lee Keep Litecoin's Revival Alive?

CoinDesk, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

Having left his job at cryptocurrency startup Coinbase, Charlie Lee has big plans to popularize his cryptocurrency creation, litecoin.

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DAVID ROSENBERG: Everyone's scared of the wrong thing when it comes to the Fed's plan for its $4.5 trillion balance sheet

Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

David Rosenberg

The Federal Reserve built up a $4.5 trillion fortress by buying up government debt as it dealt with that worst crisis since the Great Depression. It did this to suppress interest rates. 

Now that the economy is on a stronger footing and US banks in relatively good shape, the Fed is left with the task of unwinding all this. The minutes from the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting indicate it could begin in earnest in September, Deutsche Bank economists Brett Ryan and Matthew Luzzetti wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday. 

But of course, as widely forecasted as it is, worries about the potential impact of this have pushed Treasury yields — and therefore interest rates in many corners of the US economy — higher since mid-June. The benchmark 10-year yield has rallied from 2.12% on June 14 to 2.38% now. Wall Street is expecting the 10-year to hit 2.90% in the next 12 months as the Fed lets expiring Treasurys run off its balance sheet.  

However, when the unwind happens, it could catch traders in both the bond and stock markets off guard, warns Gluskin Sheff economist David Rosenberg. Here's Rosenberg referring to the Fed's various bond-buying programs dubbed "quantitative easing" or QE, and their impact on stocks and bonds (emphasis ours): 

In fact, when you go back and look at the announcements of QE1, QE2, and QE3, the Treasury market actually did not rally on these ... but the stock market sure did! And you know what, in those intermittent periods when the Fed stopped its balance sheet expansion (only to then precipitate the next round), the ensuing pullback in risk appetite and the correction in the S&P 500 actually caused the bond market to rally on the safe-haven effect!

This is a warning to those who believe that ending QE is going to be worse for Treasuries than equities ... on average, the unveiling of QE1, QE2, and QE3, generated an average 27.5% surge in the S&P 500 and the 10-year T-note never rallied once.

As for how it all plays out, Rosenberg sees three paths.

  1. The Fed can end up tightening too quickly and create a repeat of 1937-1938, which created a double-dip as the US economy was thought to be emerging from the Great Depression 
  2. It could engineer a "soft landing" like it did in 1994-1995
  3. The Fed could keep rates too low for too long like it did in 2004-2006, sowing the seeds of the housing and credit bubble.  

Regardless of the outcome, Rosenberg warns, "The economy may end up being spared, but what we do know about these three prior episodes, in fact, what we know about all thirteen periods of Fed tightening in the post-WWII era, is that these cycles don't end without the financial excess of the bull market condition becoming exposed, and then expunged."

10 year and quantitative easing

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