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Stocks didn't move much after the Federal Reserve kept their key interest rate on hold.

Stocks moved slightly after the news, but didn't make major gains on the day as all three major US stock indexes pushed into the green.

Bond yields did sink slightly following the Fed's decision, but remained up for the day.

We've got all the headlines, but first, the scoreboard:

• Dow: 19,888.89, +27.34 (+0.14%) 
• S&P 500: 2,280.12, +1.16 (+0.05%)
• Nasdaq: 5,644.02, +29.30 (+0.52%)
• UST 10-year bond yield: 2.474% (+2.3 bps)

1. The Fed kept their key interest rate between 0.50% and 0.75%. The lack of a hike was expected and the Fed's statement did not change much from its December meeting, only to note the increase in consumer and business sentiment since the election.
2. Ray Dalio is getting worried about Trump's policies. The head of Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fund, said in a letter to clients that the firm is "increasingly concerned about the emerging policies of the Trump administration."
3. ADP private payrolls crush expectations. The measure of private hiring showed 246,000 were added in January, much higher than the 168,000 expected by economists.
4. The US manufacturing sector looked solid in January. The ISM manufacturing index increased to 56.0 for the month of January, above the 55.0 expected from economists.
5. Facebook reported a blockbuster fourth quarter. The firm reported revenue of $8.81 billion compared to expectations of $8.51 billion and adjusted earnings-per-share of  $1.41 versus $1.31 expected, up from $0.79 in the year-ago period. Facebook's stock was up by 2.3% immediately after the news crossed.
6. Senate Republicans bypassed a Democratic boycott to get Trump's Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin through committee. Republicans on the finance committee changed the standing rules of the committee to allow a vote with no Democrats present. This allowed them to approve Mnuchin, along with Health and Human Services secretary Tom Price, to move on to the full Senate vote.
7. Russia's economy is nearly out of its recession. Russia's GDP came in at -0.2% for 2016, better than the -0.5% expected by economists.

ADDITIONALLY:

How the stock market decides what type of breakfast Warren Buffett has

Business Insider's Pedro da Costa on why the Fed shouldn't shrink its balance sheet yet

Short sellers cash in on Under Armour's crash

GUNMAKER CEO: Fewer people are buying ammunition after the election because Hillary Clinton didn't win

SEE ALSO: Meet the world's 7 most successful hedge fund managers

Join the conversation about this story »

NOW WATCH: Here's how to use one of the many apps to buy and trade bitcoin

[…]

The post Bitcoin Exchange Coin.mx Criminal Case Sees Murgio Senior Evade Jail appeared first on CryptoCoinsNews.

The UAE's central bank isn't banning bitcoin, senior officials said in a statement today.

Source

People seem to be easing up on their ammunition buying after the presidential election.

John Fischer, CEO of Winchester-maker Olin Corporation, said that gun retailers are seeing slower than expected sales of bullets and ammunition post-election.

"Winchester did experience a slowdown in commercial ammunition demand after the presidential election which we expect to continue into 2017," said Fischer in his company's earnings call on Wednesday.

"We're currently seeing retailers and other large customers reduced inventory levels that had been increased in anticipation of a different election outcome."

Fischer later made it clear that retailers were expecting a Hillary Clinton win and stocked up in anticipation of this event.

As we've noted before, gun sales usually increase after political events or shootings raise fears of increased gun control actions. In fact, gunmaker Smith & Wesson specifically called out the election of Obama as a reason for gun sales increasing before.

Secretary Clinton was in favor of increased gun control unlike President Donald Trump, and according to Fischer, there has been no significant increase in ammunition sales since the election.

"We believe that what happened was that the retailers were looking at what happened after 2008 election, 2012 election, expected a similar political leaning outcome and didn't and had built inventory in anticipation of that, and when it didn't happen, the inventory levels were too high," said Fischer on the call.

Additionally, background checks for guns — a loose indicator of sales — were down by around 600,000 in December 2016 compared to the year before.

SEE ALSO: RAY DALIO: 'We are increasingly concerned about the emerging policies of the Trump administration'

Join the conversation about this story »

NOW WATCH: Here's how to use one of the many apps to buy and trade bitcoin

The dollar just gave up its gains after the Fed decision.

The US dollar index is little changed for the day at 99.62 as of 2:52 p.m. ET.

It reached as high as 100.01 earlier on Wednesday.

The dollar's reversal follows the Federal Open Market Committee's Wednesday decision to keep monetary policy on hold.

Most Fed watchers expected this outcome, arguing that the committee would be keen to see more details from the Trump administration's proposed fiscal policies before making a move.

But, notably, in the accompanying press release, the committee pointed to the improving business and consumer sentiments in the aftermath of the US presidential election.

The improvements in these indicators were largely due to firms' and consumers' expectations for the economy going forward. And so, some argued ahead of the decision that the FOMC would want to see if those expectations actually translate into increases in spending and hiring before raising rates further.

SEE ALSO: What 25 major world leaders and dictators looked like when they were young

Join the conversation about this story »

NOW WATCH: Here's how to use one of the many apps to buy and trade bitcoin

Business Insider recently caught up with Rebecca Patterson, the chief investment officer of Bessemer Trust, to hear about her outlook for the global economy in 2017.

Bessemer Trust, a multifamily office, oversees more than $100 billion in assets.

Patterson was the former Chief Markets Strategist for JPMorgan Asset Management and former Global Head of Foreign Exchange and Commodities for the JPMorgan Private Bank. She started her career in journalism as a reporter for Dow Jones in London.

She is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, the New York Federal Reserve's Investor Advisory Committee and the Economic Club of New York. American Banker named her one of "The 25 Most Powerful Women in Finance" in 2014, 2015, and 2016.

In the interview, Patterson discusses dollar strength, bond volatility and how investors can protect themselves in 2017.

This is part three of a three-part series. Part one was a discussion on protectionism, China, and Dow 20k. Part two featured Patterson's advice for young Wall Streeters. 

This interview has been edited for clarity and length.

Tina Wadhwa: Given everything you’ve spoken about on European elections and the risk with China, how do investors protect themselves from all of the uncertainty and potential volatility going into this year?

Rebecca Patterson: Ironically it’s one of the reasons that we’re overweight US assets. If we do get all of the stimulus that Trump campaigned on, and the US economy does better, and the Fed raises rates more, all else equal we think that probably benefits the dollar and benefits cyclically oriented US companies. So that’s good news for the US equities market all else equal. But if something bad occurs, like a trade war with China (which is not our base case at all), I think that US equities would fall, but because of Americans’ home bias when it comes to investing and because of the likely capital flow into US money markets and cash for safety, which would push up the dollar, US equities will probably hold up at least as well as foreign markets. Usually in risk events, even if the risk event is US caused, like our debt downgrade in 2011, US markets tend to do better than overseas, because they’re more liquid and the dollar tends to benefit in risk off environments. So it helps your total return in dollars versus in overseas currencies. Having a lot in the US isn’t just a huge bet on the new administration succeeding, it’s also defensive. So that’s one thing we’re doing. But you do have to know, that’s going to be the lower volatility types of securities in your portfolios, that won’t be the small cap or the cyclicals.

The other thing we’re doing is not abandoning bonds. I think there was a bit of anxiety among a lot of investors at the end of the year when the Trump election resulted in a repricing of interest rate changes over the coming year and bonds sold off. People saw a negative number next to their bond portfolio returns for the first time in a very long time.

But going forward, our base case is that while the Fed will tighten, bond yields should rise slowly enough that you can get a positive return on your bonds. So bonds, we feel, even with the Fed hiking, can still play an important role in a portfolio to give you protection against some of these risks. We also have some credit holdings with floating rate debt that should be less volatile than equities, more volatile than your traditional bonds and munis, but also benefit if the shock is the Fed hiking faster than expected.

And then good old fashioned diversification. Some of the lower volatility strategies got hurt after the Trump election, but it depends on how they’re built. Some people consider low vol just high dividend stocks, and I think that’s way over simplified. You can create baskets of stocks and if those stocks are different enough securities, either because of sector, company, type of business, or country, you could get lower volatility through the diversification of those holdings, and that’s generally what we do at Bessemer. So we build these lower volatility baskets, we rebalance them regularly, partly on valuation, and for the last five years, they’ve made about 10% a year with 60% of global equity volatility. So even though I’m hopeful about Trump and the new administration and some of the stimulus, we have not lightened up on these strategies. They’re going to help us if something goes off plan or risk emerges that maybe we can’t even foresee.

So bonds, low vol strategies, credit, and a little diversification within the stocks you have.

Wadhwa: What’s your view on dollar strength going into 2017? On Monday Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that “from time to time, an excessively strong dollar may have negative short-term implications on the economy”. How do you see this playing out?

Patterson: I think he was in a difficult situation because his new boss just made comments about the dollar being too strong a few days earlier. So how does he thread the needle of sticking to what Treasury has been saying for the last few decades without disagreeing publicly with his new boss? So I thought he handled that well.

In terms of the dollar, our base case is that the broad dollar (so I’m not talking about the DXY, I’m talking about the trade weighted dollar) does continue to strengthen this year. And part of that is because the Fed is still tightening versus other major central banks (especially the ECB and Bank of Japan which are still easing), part of it is our view that as part of this tax reform we’ll get something that at least encourages repatriation which would be dollar positive all else equal, and if we have some positive stimulus in the US economy, that could attract more capital here. We think there is upside to the dollar, but the dollar is already getting very highly valued. The dollar is only a couple percent away from the highest level it’s been since it started floating in the 1970s. It doesn’t mean it can’t go further, but it’s getting rich. So we think further upside from here is probably a little more gradual. Then if the ECB starts tapering later this year or announces that it is moving in that direction, that’s going to change the math a little bit. Then another thing we’ll watch, which could affect the degree of the move one way or another, is who Trump puts in the vacant Fed seats. And then later this year if we start seeing speculation around who might replace Janet Yellen if indeed he is not going to rename her as chair in Feb 2018. If the perception is that we’re going to get more hawkish Fed members, that could extend the dollar’s gain further. If we get someone who’s not more hawkish than the current Fed, that would suggest relatively less dollar strength. Overall we’re still bullish on the dollar, but not aggressively so at this point. It’s already moved a lot.

Wadhwa: What are the big themes of the moment? What are you worried about, what are you excited about?

Patterson: I’m always worried about what I’m missing. I’m always worried most about the thing I’m not catching.

I do worry about bond market volatility later this year with the Fed appointments. Remember it was August 2015 and there were worries about who was going to take over from Bernanke. There was a lot of disagreement whether it would be Larry Summers, Janet Yellen, or someone else, and the bond market volatility exacerbated the equity market volatility at the time. People are pricing in the risk of trade problems, the risk of equities, pricing in a lot of good news. I don’t think the market is adequately focused yet on the possible bond volatility we could get later this year. And then the French election — everyone is aware of it, everyone knows it coming, that’s not going to be a shock, but if it actually plays out that Le Pen wins, I’m not sure if investors are adequately aware of the negative and broad implications that could have.

I worry about Russia in that Putin has proven for several years now that he is good at seizing opportunities. If you had another rush of migrants into Europe this spring, if you had other events that could tilt elections in a way that creates more question marks around the strength of the European Union or the European currency bloc, that definitely works to Russia’s advantage. A weaker Europe is good for Russia. Not weaker economically but weaker politically. And so that is definitely something that I think about a lot in terms of risks that we have to watch out for this year.

Wadhwa: What about things that you are optimistic about or excited about this year, just to end on a positive note?

Patterson: We’ve been going for so long with mediocre growth, and if you look at business confidence surveys, we’re seeing less red and more green. Emerging markets are trailing, but even they have improved on a relative basis. Europe has some real momentum. China I think in part because of their party congress this fall is going to try really hard to keep growth relatively stable this year. So if you have a stable China, an improving US, barring a France shock hopefully you have an improving Europe, you could have some decent global growth this year — and that would be welcome. It’s going to help companies and it’s going to hopefully help political leaders, because if your voters have money in their pockets, they tend to be less grumpy about other things. So that’s a good thing, and that started before the election. We started seeing that happening really in September/October, and I’m sure commodity prices stabilizing has helped, but it’s more than that. So that to me is something one shouldn’t overlook. It’s so easy to get fixated on US politics right now b/c it’s such a new world, but the underlying economic momentum in the US, Europe and elsewhere that started even before the election is now being reinforced after the election. And that’s great, that’s really good news.

SEE ALSO: One of the most powerful women in finance on protectionism, China, Dow 20k, and 'Brexit on steroids'

Join the conversation about this story »

NOW WATCH: Here's how to use one of the many apps to buy and trade bitcoin

Business Insider recently caught up with Rebecca Patterson, the chief investment officer of Bessemer Trust, to hear about her outlook for the global economy in 2017.

Bessemer Trust, a multifamily office, oversees more than $100 billion in assets.

Patterson was the former Chief Markets Strategist for JPMorgan Asset Management and former Global Head of Foreign Exchange and Commodities for the JPMorgan Private Bank. She started her career in journalism as a reporter for Dow Jones in London.

She is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, the New York Federal Reserve's Investor Advisory Committee and the Economic Club of New York. American Banker named her one of "The 25 Most Powerful Women in Finance" in 2014, 2015, and 2016.

In the interview, Patterson discusses dollar strength, bond volatility and how investors can protect themselves in 2017.

This is part three of a three-part series. Part one was a discussion on protectionism, China, and Dow 20k. Part two featured Patterson's advice for young Wall Streeters. 

This interview has been edited for clarity and length.

Tina Wadhwa: Given everything you’ve spoken about on European elections and the risk with China, how do investors protect themselves from all of the uncertainty and potential volatility going into this year?

Rebecca Patterson: Ironically it’s one of the reasons that we’re overweight US assets. If we do get all of the stimulus that Trump campaigned on, and the US economy does better, and the Fed raises rates more, all else equal we think that probably benefits the dollar and benefits cyclically oriented US companies. So that’s good news for the US equities market all else equal. But if something bad occurs, like a trade war with China (which is not our base case at all), I think that US equities would fall, but because of Americans’ home bias when it comes to investing and because of the likely capital flow into US money markets and cash for safety, which would push up the dollar, US equities will probably hold up at least as well as foreign markets. Usually in risk events, even if the risk event is US caused, like our debt downgrade in 2011, US markets tend to do better than overseas, because they’re more liquid and the dollar tends to benefit in risk off environments. So it helps your total return in dollars versus in overseas currencies. Having a lot in the US isn’t just a huge bet on the new administration succeeding, it’s also defensive. So that’s one thing we’re doing. But you do have to know, that’s going to be the lower volatility types of securities in your portfolios, that won’t be the small cap or the cyclicals.

The other thing we’re doing is not abandoning bonds. I think there was a bit of anxiety among a lot of investors at the end of the year when the Trump election resulted in a repricing of interest rate changes over the coming year and bonds sold off. People saw a negative number next to their bond portfolio returns for the first time in a very long time.

But going forward, our base case is that while the Fed will tighten, bond yields should rise slowly enough that you can get a positive return on your bonds. So bonds, we feel, even with the Fed hiking, can still play an important role in a portfolio to give you protection against some of these risks. We also have some credit holdings with floating rate debt that should be less volatile than equities, more volatile than your traditional bonds and munis, but also benefit if the shock is the Fed hiking faster than expected.

And then good old fashioned diversification. Some of the lower volatility strategies got hurt after the Trump election, but it depends on how they’re built. Some people consider low vol just high dividend stocks, and I think that’s way over simplified. You can create baskets of stocks and if those stocks are different enough securities, either because of sector, company, type of business, or country, you could get lower volatility through the diversification of those holdings, and that’s generally what we do at Bessemer. So we build these lower volatility baskets, we rebalance them regularly, partly on valuation, and for the last five years, they’ve made about 10% a year with 60% of global equity volatility. So even though I’m hopeful about Trump and the new administration and some of the stimulus, we have not lightened up on these strategies. They’re going to help us if something goes off plan or risk emerges that maybe we can’t even foresee.

So bonds, low vol strategies, credit, and a little diversification within the stocks you have.

Wadhwa: What’s your view on dollar strength going into 2017? On Monday Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that “from time to time, an excessively strong dollar may have negative short-term implications on the economy”. How do you see this playing out?

Patterson: I think he was in a difficult situation because his new boss just made comments about the dollar being too strong a few days earlier. So how does he thread the needle of sticking to what Treasury has been saying for the last few decades without disagreeing publicly with his new boss? So I thought he handled that well.

In terms of the dollar, our base case is that the broad dollar (so I’m not talking about the DXY, I’m talking about the trade weighted dollar) does continue to strengthen this year. And part of that is because the Fed is still tightening versus other major central banks (especially the ECB and Bank of Japan which are still easing), part of it is our view that as part of this tax reform we’ll get something that at least encourages repatriation which would be dollar positive all else equal, and if we have some positive stimulus in the US economy, that could attract more capital here. We think there is upside to the dollar, but the dollar is already getting very highly valued. The dollar is only a couple percent away from the highest level it’s been since it started floating in the 1970s. It doesn’t mean it can’t go further, but it’s getting rich. So we think further upside from here is probably a little more gradual. Then if the ECB starts tapering later this year or announces that it is moving in that direction, that’s going to change the math a little bit. Then another thing we’ll watch, which could affect the degree of the move one way or another, is who Trump puts in the vacant Fed seats. And then later this year if we start seeing speculation around who might replace Janet Yellen if indeed he is not going to rename her as chair in Feb 2018. If the perception is that we’re going to get more hawkish Fed members, that could extend the dollar’s gain further. If we get someone who’s not more hawkish than the current Fed, that would suggest relatively less dollar strength. Overall we’re still bullish on the dollar, but not aggressively so at this point. It’s already moved a lot.

Wadhwa: What are the big themes of the moment? What are you worried about, what are you excited about?

Patterson: I’m always worried about what I’m missing. I’m always worried most about the thing I’m not catching.

I do worry about bond market volatility later this year with the Fed appointments. Remember it was August 2015 and there were worries about who was going to take over from Bernanke. There was a lot of disagreement whether it would be Larry Summers, Janet Yellen, or someone else, and the bond market volatility exacerbated the equity market volatility at the time. People are pricing in the risk of trade problems, the risk of equities, pricing in a lot of good news. I don’t think the market is adequately focused yet on the possible bond volatility we could get later this year. And then the French election — everyone is aware of it, everyone knows it coming, that’s not going to be a shock, but if it actually plays out that Le Pen wins, I’m not sure if investors are adequately aware of the negative and broad implications that could have.

I worry about Russia in that Putin has proven for several years now that he is good at seizing opportunities. If you had another rush of migrants into Europe this spring, if you had other events that could tilt elections in a way that creates more question marks around the strength of the European Union or the European currency bloc, that definitely works to Russia’s advantage. A weaker Europe is good for Russia. Not weaker economically but weaker politically. And so that is definitely something that I think about a lot in terms of risks that we have to watch out for this year.

Wadhwa: What about things that you are optimistic about or excited about this year, just to end on a positive note?

Patterson: We’ve been going for so long with mediocre growth, and if you look at business confidence surveys, we’re seeing less red and more green. Emerging markets are trailing, but even they have improved on a relative basis. Europe has some real momentum. China I think in part because of their party congress this fall is going to try really hard to keep growth relatively stable this year. So if you have a stable China, an improving US, barring a France shock hopefully you have an improving Europe, you could have some decent global growth this year — and that would be welcome. It’s going to help companies and it’s going to hopefully help political leaders, because if your voters have money in their pockets, they tend to be less grumpy about other things. So that’s a good thing, and that started before the election. We started seeing that happening really in September/October, and I’m sure commodity prices stabilizing has helped, but it’s more than that. So that to me is something one shouldn’t overlook. It’s so easy to get fixated on US politics right now b/c it’s such a new world, but the underlying economic momentum in the US, Europe and elsewhere that started even before the election is now being reinforced after the election. And that’s great, that’s really good news.

SEE ALSO: One of the most powerful women in finance on protectionism, China, Dow 20k, and 'Brexit on steroids'

Join the conversation about this story »

NOW WATCH: Here's how to use one of the many apps to buy and trade bitcoin

Business Insider recently caught up with Rebecca Patterson, the chief investment officer of Bessemer Trust, to hear about her outlook for the global economy in 2017.

Bessemer Trust, a multifamily office, oversees more than $100 billion in assets.

Patterson was the former Chief Markets Strategist for JPMorgan Asset Management and former Global Head of Foreign Exchange and Commodities for the JPMorgan Private Bank. She started her career in journalism as a reporter for Dow Jones in London.

She is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, the New York Federal Reserve's Investor Advisory Committee and the Economic Club of New York. American Banker named her one of "The 25 Most Powerful Women in Finance" in 2014, 2015, and 2016.

In the interview, Patterson discusses dollar strength, bond volatility and how investors can protect themselves in 2017.

This is part three of a three-part series. Part one was a discussion on protectionism, China, and Dow 20k. Part two featured Patterson's advice for young Wall Streeters. 

This interview has been edited for clarity and length.

Tina Wadhwa: Given everything you’ve spoken about on European elections and the risk with China, how do investors protect themselves from all of the uncertainty and potential volatility going into this year?

Rebecca Patterson: Ironically it’s one of the reasons that we’re overweight US assets. If we do get all of the stimulus that Trump campaigned on, and the US economy does better, and the Fed raises rates more, all else equal we think that probably benefits the dollar and benefits cyclically oriented US companies. So that’s good news for the US equities market all else equal. But if something bad occurs, like a trade war with China (which is not our base case at all), I think that US equities would fall, but because of Americans’ home bias when it comes to investing and because of the likely capital flow into US money markets and cash for safety, which would push up the dollar, US equities will probably hold up at least as well as foreign markets. Usually in risk events, even if the risk event is US caused, like our debt downgrade in 2011, US markets tend to do better than overseas, because they’re more liquid and the dollar tends to benefit in risk off environments. So it helps your total return in dollars versus in overseas currencies. Having a lot in the US isn’t just a huge bet on the new administration succeeding, it’s also defensive. So that’s one thing we’re doing. But you do have to know, that’s going to be the lower volatility types of securities in your portfolios, that won’t be the small cap or the cyclicals.

The other thing we’re doing is not abandoning bonds. I think there was a bit of anxiety among a lot of investors at the end of the year when the Trump election resulted in a repricing of interest rate changes over the coming year and bonds sold off. People saw a negative number next to their bond portfolio returns for the first time in a very long time.

But going forward, our base case is that while the Fed will tighten, bond yields should rise slowly enough that you can get a positive return on your bonds. So bonds, we feel, even with the Fed hiking, can still play an important role in a portfolio to give you protection against some of these risks. We also have some credit holdings with floating rate debt that should be less volatile than equities, more volatile than your traditional bonds and munis, but also benefit if the shock is the Fed hiking faster than expected.

And then good old fashioned diversification. Some of the lower volatility strategies got hurt after the Trump election, but it depends on how they’re built. Some people consider low vol just high dividend stocks, and I think that’s way over simplified. You can create baskets of stocks and if those stocks are different enough securities, either because of sector, company, type of business, or country, you could get lower volatility through the diversification of those holdings, and that’s generally what we do at Bessemer. So we build these lower volatility baskets, we rebalance them regularly, partly on valuation, and for the last five years, they’ve made about 10% a year with 60% of global equity volatility. So even though I’m hopeful about Trump and the new administration and some of the stimulus, we have not lightened up on these strategies. They’re going to help us if something goes off plan or risk emerges that maybe we can’t even foresee.

So bonds, low vol strategies, credit, and a little diversification within the stocks you have.

Wadhwa: What’s your view on dollar strength going into 2017? On Monday Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that “from time to time, an excessively strong dollar may have negative short-term implications on the economy”. How do you see this playing out?

Patterson: I think he was in a difficult situation because his new boss just made comments about the dollar being too strong a few days earlier. So how does he thread the needle of sticking to what Treasury has been saying for the last few decades without disagreeing publicly with his new boss? So I thought he handled that well.

In terms of the dollar, our base case is that the broad dollar (so I’m not talking about the DXY, I’m talking about the trade weighted dollar) does continue to strengthen this year. And part of that is because the Fed is still tightening versus other major central banks (especially the ECB and Bank of Japan which are still easing), part of it is our view that as part of this tax reform we’ll get something that at least encourages repatriation which would be dollar positive all else equal, and if we have some positive stimulus in the US economy, that could attract more capital here. We think there is upside to the dollar, but the dollar is already getting very highly valued. The dollar is only a couple percent away from the highest level it’s been since it started floating in the 1970s. It doesn’t mean it can’t go further, but it’s getting rich. So we think further upside from here is probably a little more gradual. Then if the ECB starts tapering later this year or announces that it is moving in that direction, that’s going to change the math a little bit. Then another thing we’ll watch, which could affect the degree of the move one way or another, is who Trump puts in the vacant Fed seats. And then later this year if we start seeing speculation around who might replace Janet Yellen if indeed he is not going to rename her as chair in Feb 2018. If the perception is that we’re going to get more hawkish Fed members, that could extend the dollar’s gain further. If we get someone who’s not more hawkish than the current Fed, that would suggest relatively less dollar strength. Overall we’re still bullish on the dollar, but not aggressively so at this point. It’s already moved a lot.

Wadhwa: What are the big themes of the moment? What are you worried about, what are you excited about?

Patterson: I’m always worried about what I’m missing. I’m always worried most about the thing I’m not catching.

I do worry about bond market volatility later this year with the Fed appointments. Remember it was August 2015 and there were worries about who was going to take over from Bernanke. There was a lot of disagreement whether it would be Larry Summers, Janet Yellen, or someone else, and the bond market volatility exacerbated the equity market volatility at the time. People are pricing in the risk of trade problems, the risk of equities, pricing in a lot of good news. I don’t think the market is adequately focused yet on the possible bond volatility we could get later this year. And then the French election — everyone is aware of it, everyone knows it coming, that’s not going to be a shock, but if it actually plays out that Le Pen wins, I’m not sure if investors are adequately aware of the negative and broad implications that could have.

I worry about Russia in that Putin has proven for several years now that he is good at seizing opportunities. If you had another rush of migrants into Europe this spring, if you had other events that could tilt elections in a way that creates more question marks around the strength of the European Union or the European currency bloc, that definitely works to Russia’s advantage. A weaker Europe is good for Russia. Not weaker economically but weaker politically. And so that is definitely something that I think about a lot in terms of risks that we have to watch out for this year.

Wadhwa: What about things that you are optimistic about or excited about this year, just to end on a positive note?

Patterson: We’ve been going for so long with mediocre growth, and if you look at business confidence surveys, we’re seeing less red and more green. Emerging markets are trailing, but even they have improved on a relative basis. Europe has some real momentum. China I think in part because of their party congress this fall is going to try really hard to keep growth relatively stable this year. So if you have a stable China, an improving US, barring a France shock hopefully you have an improving Europe, you could have some decent global growth this year — and that would be welcome. It’s going to help companies and it’s going to hopefully help political leaders, because if your voters have money in their pockets, they tend to be less grumpy about other things. So that’s a good thing, and that started before the election. We started seeing that happening really in September/October, and I’m sure commodity prices stabilizing has helped, but it’s more than that. So that to me is something one shouldn’t overlook. It’s so easy to get fixated on US politics right now b/c it’s such a new world, but the underlying economic momentum in the US, Europe and elsewhere that started even before the election is now being reinforced after the election. And that’s great, that’s really good news.

SEE ALSO: One of the most powerful women in finance on protectionism, China, Dow 20k, and 'Brexit on steroids'

Join the conversation about this story »

NOW WATCH: Here's how to use one of the many apps to buy and trade bitcoin

The Federal Open Market Committee will announce its latest monetary policy decision at 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday.

Most Fed watchers expect the FOMC to keep policy on hold as committee members wait for more clarity over the Trump administration's proposed fiscal policy agenda.

Bloomberg's World Interest Rate Probability shows just a 14.5% chance that the Fed will hike its key rate by 25 basis points. Additionally, there is no press conference scheduled after Wednesday's meeting.

"Following its rate hike at last December's meeting, we expect the Fed to stay in wait-and-see mode until it has more clarity on the magnitude, composition, and timing of the anticipated fiscal stimulus," Capital Economics' Paul Ashworth wrote in a note to clients.

President Donald Trump pledged to cut taxes for corporations and to invest about $550 billion in infrastructure. Wall Street had previously argued that these steps will encourage economic growth and inflation while supporting company earnings. Stocks surged after the election to new highs, and the Dow crossed the psychologically important 20,000 mark in January. (Although, it is now again below that level.)

Nevertheless, the parameters of Trump's fiscal policy proposals are still mostly unknown. Therefore, the Fed is unlikely to capture the full extent of their effects in its outlook.

For what it's worth, the committee's outlook for economic growth, inflation, and unemployment in December (i.e. after the presidential election) was little changed from its September projections.

Additionally, although business and consumer sentiment indicators climbed after Trump's election, their upticks were largely due to increases in expectations. And so, the Fed will likely want to wait to see if that translates into an actual increase in spending and hiring.

"...by the March FOMC meeting, we should have a better sense of the degree to which recent improvements in business and consumer sentiment are affecting economic activity," Lewis Alexander, chief US economist at Nomura, wrote in a note to clients.

At its meeting in mid-December, the FOMC raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 0.50% to 0.75%. That marked the second rate hike in a decade.

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Digital currency exchange Gemini is doing away with transaction confirmations for approved customers.

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Several Federal Reserve officials have recently floated the idea that the central bank will begin to shrink its $4.4 trillion balance sheet, perhaps as early as this year, in an effort to tighten monetary policy and start to reverse some crisis-era decisions.

It's a bad idea.

The economy, while growing, remains fragile, registering a mediocre 1.9% annualized pace of expansion in the fourth quarter. The job market, while improving, is still a far cry from its pre-crisis heyday, with many Americans still underemployed or out of the labor force entirely. And inflation, the other key portion of the Fed's mandate, continues to undershoot the official 2% inflation target.

Moreover, the rise of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency has introduced all kinds of uncertainties. Will he spend money on infrastructure? Cut social spending? Reduce taxes for the rich? Start a trade war? Start an actual war? Nobody knows, including Fed officials. It's little wonder Fed staffers have shown a tendency to be less optimistic than their bosses.

The stated rationale for reducing the Fed's holdings of mortgage bonds, by ceasing reinvestment of the principal on maturing bonds, is straightforward: The Fed sharply expanded its balance sheet initially as a response to the financial crisis and then as a way to beef up an unusually soft economic recovery.

In the process, it helped prevent another Great Depression, particularly given a Congress that was unwilling to act on some of President Barack Obama's bolder fiscal stimulus proposals.

Through purchases of longer-dated Treasury and mortgage bonds in a process known as quantitative easing, the Fed more than quadrupled its total asset holdings. But the outcomes were generally beneficial, and none of the side effects that worried more hawkish central bankers — sudden inflation spikes, flagrant market bubbles, emerging market crises — have come to pass.

As the economy gets back to normal, the thinking goes, it's time to move away from policies once thought of as emergency measures.

It's all relative

Morgan Stanley economists, who believe the Fed will cease mortgage bond reinvestments starting in April 2018, themselves appear to make the case against the policy in a research note.

The chorus has become sufficiently loud to prompt ex-Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, now a hedge fund adviser, to chime in on his Brookings Institution blog, coming out strongly against any deliberate Fed action on the balance sheet.

The current policy states that the Fed intends to leave the balance sheet untouched until "normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way."

"The case for deferring action on the balance sheet until short-term rates are meaningfully higher remains at least as strong as it was when the FOMC’s strategy was first devised," argued Bernanke, referring to the Fed's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee.

He's right. With the economy still wobbly, there's no reason to rock the boat further right now. The whole reason for using the balance sheet as an active tool in the first place was the fact that official interest rates were already at zero and couldn't go any lower. That's simply not the case as the Fed reverses direction, so better stick to the tried and true policy tool as opposed to risking needless market turmoil through excessive experimentation.

This would be especially ill-advised at a time when higher borrowing costs is already taking a toll on the housing sector, which was a particular beneficiary of the Fed's mortgage bond buys.

Perhaps Fed officials could borrow a page from medicine and develop their own monetary version of the Hippocratic oath: First, do no harm.

SEE ALSO: Trump's clumsiness makes the Fed's job easier

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Facebook is higher by 0.5% at $131 ahead of its fourth quarter earnings release that is scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.

Here are the expected numbers, based on analyst projections compiled by Yahoo Finance:

• Revenue: $8.5 billion, up 46% from $5.84 billion in the year-ago period.
• EPS (adjusted): $1.31, up from $0.79 in the year-ago period.

The social media giant is on a five-quarter streak of beating analyst expectations for both earnings and revenue, however, CFO Dave Wehner told investors during the third quarter earnings call to brace for a "meaningful" slowdown in revenue growth rates and "aggressive" investment spending in 2017.

Instagram has become an increasingly important part of Facebook's ad strategy, and according to eMarketer, Instagram it is expected to generate $3.64 billion in worldwide ad revenue this year, a 96% increase over last year.

Investors will also look ahead to Facebook's other monetization bets besides ads, like Instagram and Messenger, for signs of meaningful growth.

SEE ALSO: Facebook is about to announce its fourth-quarter earnings — here’s what to expect

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Russia is getting closer to pulling out of its recession.

A preliminary estimate showed that Russia's GDP dipped by 0.2% in 2016, according to the Federal Statistics Service.

This was above expectations of a contraction of 0.5%, according to the Bloomberg consensus.

The estimate "is consistent with the idea that the economy returned to positive growth in the final quarter of last year," William Jackson, senior emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, wrote to clients.

Russia's economy has been slowly climbing back after a sluggish 2015 and 2016 amid lower oil prices and economic sanctions.

Taking a look under the hood, data suggests that two industries in particular pushed the economy forward: Manufacturing rose by 1.4% in 2016 and the production of natural resources was up by 0.2%.

However, on the flip side, consumption remained weak. Wholesale and retail trade dropped by 3.6%.

Additionally, the Federal Statistics Services also revised 2015 GDP to a 2.8% drop, compared to the prior estimate of a 3.7% contraction. This revision "appears to be due to the inventory cycle exerting a smaller drag on growth," suggested Jackson. "According to today's GDP figures, gross capital formation fell by much less than previously thought (-13.0% versus -20.9%), whereas fixed investment actually fell more."

Separately, Russia's Markit manufacturing PMI came in at 54.7 for January, up from the prior reading of 53.7. A reading above 50 indicates growth in the manufacturing industry. The report noted that firms saw the strongest manufacturing upturn since March 2011 and backlogs of work accumulated at the sharpest pace in almost ten-and-a-half years.

"Russian manufacturers carried the momentum they built up during the closing stages of 2016 through to the new year, as firms recorded the sharpest improvement in operating conditions for nearly six years," Samuel Agass, economist at IHS Markit, wrote in the report.

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When it comes to the tech sector, two companies stand out in the crowd — Apple and Facebook.

Unsurprisingly, these two titans have a huge impact on the sector's earnings growth.

Apple is expected to be the largest detractor to the sector, while Facebook is expected to be the largest contributor, according to a blog post by FactSet Insight's John Butters on Tuesday. 

The current mean earnings per share (EPS) estimate for Apple for the calendar fourth quarter is $3.22, compared to a year-ago actual EPS of $3.28. Earnings per share serves as an indicator of a company's profitability.

Apple's drop is dragging down the tech sector as a whole. Butters notes that the blended earnings growth rate for the overall S&P 500 information technology sector is 7.1%. However, without Apple, the blended earnings growth rate for the sector would improve to 12.6%, according to the post. Apple's falling EPS can be boiled down to declining iPhone sales as the iPhone product segment reported an average YoY revenue decline of 14% from Q4'15 through Q3'16, according to Butters. 

Meanwhile, Facebook is expected to be the largest contributor to Q4 '16 earnings growth for the sector. The current mean EPS estimate for Facebook for the calendar fourth quarter is $1.31, compared to a year-ago actual EPS of $0.79, according to the post. If Facebook were excluded, the blended earnings growth rate for the overall tech sector would fall to 5.3%, lower than the actual growth rate of 7.1%.

So Facebook is propping the sector up. This can be attributed to an increase in mobile advertising sales for Facebook, according to Butters. From Q4'14 – Q3'16, mobile advertising sales have reported year-over-year revenue growth of 80% on average. 

Apple reported earnings on Tuesday that beat Wall Street's expectations on revenue and profit and Facebook is reporting earnings on Wednesday after the close. 

SEE ALSO: Apple beats on revenue and profit but forecasts weakness

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When it comes to the tech sector, two companies stand out in the crowd — Apple and Facebook.

Unsurprisingly, these two titans have a huge impact on the sector's earnings growth.

Apple is expected to be the largest detractor to the sector, while Facebook is expected to be the largest contributor, according to a blog post by FactSet Insight's John Butters on Tuesday. 

The current mean earnings per share (EPS) estimate for Apple for the calendar fourth quarter is $3.22, compared to a year-ago actual EPS of $3.28. Earnings per share serves as an indicator of a company's profitability.

Apple's drop is dragging down the tech sector as a whole. Butters notes that the blended earnings growth rate for the overall S&P 500 information technology sector is 7.1%. However, without Apple, the blended earnings growth rate for the sector would improve to 12.6%, according to the post. Apple's falling EPS can be boiled down to declining iPhone sales as the iPhone product segment reported an average YoY revenue decline of 14% from Q4'15 through Q3'16, according to Butters. 

Meanwhile, Facebook is expected to be the largest contributor to Q4 '16 earnings growth for the sector. The current mean EPS estimate for Facebook for the calendar fourth quarter is $1.31, compared to a year-ago actual EPS of $0.79, according to the post. If Facebook were excluded, the blended earnings growth rate for the overall tech sector would fall to 5.3%, lower than the actual growth rate of 7.1%.

So Facebook is propping the sector up. This can be attributed to an increase in mobile advertising sales for Facebook, according to Butters. From Q4'14 – Q3'16, mobile advertising sales have reported year-over-year revenue growth of 80% on average. 

Apple reported earnings on Tuesday that beat Wall Street's expectations on revenue and profit and Facebook is reporting earnings on Wednesday after the close. 

SEE ALSO: Apple beats on revenue and profit but forecasts weakness

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On Tuesday, shares of Under Armour crashed more than 20% after the company announced disappointing top and bottom line results while also lowering its full-year 2017 guidance. The company earned $0.23 per share on revenue of $1.31 billion and lowered its 2017 operating income forecast to $320 million.

And while shareholders took it on the chin as the stock plunged following the results, the short sellers raked in a profit of more than $400 million, according to data provided by S3 Partners. Tuesday's big haul has created a reversal of fortune for the shorts, who were holding a loss of $17.5 million net of financing expenses on their books for the month of January before shares tumbled on Tuesday. 

Over the last 13 months, Under Armour short sellers have been the most successful in the apparel space, reaping a gain of $196 million profits net of financing, S3 Says. 

SEE ALSO: Short sellers are piling into Tesla

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Apple is up more than 5% on Wednesday morning at $127.76 after reporting better than expected earnings on Tuesday afternoon. While the quarterly results were ahead of estimates, the company's second quarter revenue guidance came up a bit short.

Here's a look at the key numbers:

• EPS (GAAP): $3.36, up 2% year-over-year, ($3.22 expected)
• Revenue: $78.4 billion, up 3% year-over-year, ($77.4 billion expected)
• Gross margin: 38.5%, versus expectations of 38.4%
• iPhone unit sales: 78 million, up 4% year-over-year, versus expectations of 76.3 million
• Q2 revenue guidance: $51.5 billion to $53.5 billion ($53.8 million expected)

The report showed iPhone sales grew for the first time in a year, but iPad sales declined for a 12th straight quarter. CEO Tim Cook said that Apple Watch sales set records for revenue and units sold, but did not disclose exact figures. 

SEE ALSO: Apple beats on revenue and profit but forecasts weakness

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Apple is up more than 5% on Wednesday morning at $127.76 after reporting better than expected earnings on Tuesday afternoon. While the quarterly results were ahead of estimates, the company's second quarter revenue guidance came up a bit short.

Here's a look at the key numbers:

• EPS (GAAP): $3.36, up 2% year-over-year, ($3.22 expected)
• Revenue: $78.4 billion, up 3% year-over-year, ($77.4 billion expected)
• Gross margin: 38.5%, versus expectations of 38.4%
• iPhone unit sales: 78 million, up 4% year-over-year, versus expectations of 76.3 million
• Q2 revenue guidance: $51.5 billion to $53.5 billion ($53.8 million expected)

The report showed iPhone sales grew for the first time in a year, but iPad sales declined for a 12th straight quarter. CEO Tim Cook said that Apple Watch sales set records for revenue and units sold, but did not disclose exact figures. 

SEE ALSO: Apple beats on revenue and profit but forecasts weakness

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The latest readings on the health of US manufacturing will be out on Wednesday morning.

First up, we'll have Markit's manufacturing PMI at 9:45 a.m. ET.

Economists expect that the index to held steady at 55.1 in January, according to the Bloomberg consensus.

And next, the ISM manufacturing purchasing index (PMI) will cross the wires at 10 a.m. ET. The index is expected to tick up slightly to 55.0, from 54.4.

A reading above 50 suggests that the industry is still expanding.

Refresh this page of updates at 10 a.m. ET.

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Abu Dhabi’s largest bank has begun offering a new cross-border transaction service in partnership with distributed ledger startup Ripple.

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 Ripple – to some its delicious fortified wine. To others, one of the more accessible Grateful Dead tracks. To others still, it’s a Silicon Valley startup that makes milk out of peas. You can add yet another name to the list — Ripple Network Technology, which shares little more than a vaguely evocative name with those other parties. This Florida-based team has designed a… Read More

Ever wonder how the FBI catches ransomware perpetrators? This special agent laid out the process in great detail.

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Ray Dalio, the head of Bridgewater Associates, is cooling off on his opinion of President Donald Trump.

Dalio, who was hopeful about a Trump presidency and some of his economic policies seems to have struck a less hopeful tone, according to a letter obtained by Bloomberg.

In the letter, Dalio warned that there is a high level of uncertainty in the market and told clients to avoid investing too heavily in a particular asset, according to the Bloomberg report.

"While there is a lot of potential to improve fiscal policies and make beneficial structural reforms (to enhance the business friendly environment, reduce regulatory inefficiencies, etc.), there is also significant risk that his populist policies could hurt the world economy (and worse)," said Dalio in the letter.

It's a quick turnaround for Dalio after the head of the world's largest hedge fund said in a note after the election that Trump's policies could be beneficial to business and the US.

"A pro-business US with its rule of law, political stability, property rights protections, and (soon to be) favorable corporate taxes offers a uniquely attractive environment for those who make money and/or have money," wrote Dalio in December.

Since then, it does appear that some of the trade policies coming from the Trump White House — from a 20% border tax suggestion, strained relations with Mexico's president over NAFTA and a border wall, and attacks on China and Germany over their currencies — seems to have cooled Dalio on Trump.

"Nationalism, protectionism and militarism increase global tensions and the risks of conflict. For these reasons, while we remain open-minded, we are increasingly concerned about the emerging policies of the Trump administration," said the letter from Dalio, according to Bloomberg.

You can read the full Bloomberg post here»

SEE ALSO: There are a lot of problems with Trump's 20% border tax idea

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The Mexican peso hit a one-month high of 20.6601 per dollar on Wednesday morning before trimming some of its gains. The currency trades up 0.5% at 20.7231 per dollar as of 8 a.m ET.

Mexico's currency has had a wild start to 2017 as President Donald Trump has railed against Mexico during his first week in office. 

It fell about 6% over the first three weeks of the year as traders priced in what a Trump presidency could mean for the currency as he railed against Mexico throughout his campaign.

But then the fireworks began as Trump took office and the peso's fortunes began to turn around:

• Last Thursday Trump tweeted, "The U.S. has a 60 billion dollar trade deficit with Mexico. It has been a one-sided deal from the beginning of NAFTA with massive numbers of jobs and companies lost. If Mexico is unwilling to pay for the badly needed wall, then it would be better to cancel the upcoming meeting."
• Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto pushed back, stating that Mexico would not pay for the border wall that Trump has promised to build and responded with his own tweet, "This morning we have informed the White House that I will not attend the meeting scheduled for next Tuesday with the @POTUS."
• The Trump team responded by suggesting a 20% border tax could be placed on all US imports coming from Mexico, and later said that tax could be placed on all imports. 
• On Friday, Trump continued his assault on the US' neighbor to the south, tweeting, "Mexico has taken advantage of the U.S. for long enough. Massive trade deficits & little help on the very weak border must change, NOW!" 
• But cooler heads prevailed and Peña Nieto and Trump held an hour-long phone call to try and work out their differences. While the outcome of the call was not made public, it's a sign that the two sides are trying to work things out. 

Interestingly, the peso has actually strengthened by about 6% since Trump was inaugurated on January 20th, and has wiped away all of its losses for the year. However, the currency is still down about 13% since Trump won the election. 

SEE ALSO: There are a lot of problems with Trump's 20% border tax idea

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ADP's reading on the growth of private payrolls in the US jumped well more than expected for the month of January.

The measure of private sector job growth increased by 246,000 for the month, well above the mark of 168,000 expected by economists. The measure grew by 153,000 in the prior month.

The huge ADP beat is also a good sign of the strength of job growth in January before Friday's jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That more comprehensive look is expected to grow by 175,000 payrolls in the month of January.

SEE ALSO: There are a lot of problems with Trump's 20% border tax idea

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The post New Zealand Bitcoin Extortionist Jailed for Blackmail appeared first on CryptoCoinsNews.

Bitcoin is busting out of its range that had been in place for the middle part of January. The cryptocurrency spent the past two weeks trapped at the $880/$920 resistance level but has finally broken through. 

Bitcoin rallied 3.7% on Tuesday as the Trump team exchanged barbs with German Chancellor Angela Merkel over the weakness of the euro, closing the day near $955 a coin. Tuesday's gains have carried over into Wednesday's session with the cryptocurrency up close to 1% near $972. 

Bitcoin has had a wild start to 2017 after rallying more than 120% in 2016 to become the top performing currency for a second straight year. It rallied more than 20% in the opening says of the year, crossing the $1,000 level for the first time since November 2013 before tumbling more than 35% amid worries that China was going to crack down on trading. Recently, the cryptocurrency has shrugged off the news that China's three largest bitcoin exchanges will begin charging a flat fee of 0.2% for each transaction. 

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The National Bank of Abu Dhabi launches Ripple-powered blockchain cross-border payments.

The post Abu Dhabi’s Largest Bank Just Launched Blockchain Cross Border Payments appeared first on CryptoCoinsNews.

As ChronoBank heads towards the last few week's of its crowdfund (Initial Coin Offering), the startup from Australia that aims to disrupt the recruitment industry has passed $3m towards launching its Labour Hour (LH) tokens over 2017 and struck a partnership with Changelly's instant exchange app.