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Commerzbank: Future of Bitcoin is an 'Open Question'

CoinDesk, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

Blockchain technology constitutes a "genuine revolution" in how decentralized systems are run, Commerzbank said in a March report.

Everything the Federal Reserve has been trying to do could turn out to be wrong

Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

janet yellen

A major shift seems to be coming to the Federal Reserve.

Over the last few days a number of current and former Fed officials have spoken about their views on the economy, the future of interest rates, and possible ways to tweak their communication strategy.

In a report early Wednesday, CNBC's Fed whisperer Steve Liesman characterized this as a "mini revolt" now facing Fed Chair Janet Yellen.

This report was followed by St. Louis Fed president James Bullard's epic interview on Bloomberg Wednesday morning with Tom Keene and Michael McKee.

And what's clear from Bullard's comments is that the future of Fed policy seems more and more likely to be grounded in something new and radical than anything like the past.

The simplest way to summarize what the Fed has tried to do since the recession is keep interest rates low to help reduce unemployment and bring inflation up to 2% per year.

After achieving these goals the Fed would, in theory, be able to raise interest rates back to something "normal" — call this rate 3% or 4% or something in that range. 

Of course many will be quick to note that with seven-plus years of interest rates at or near 0% — and rates in Japan in Europe actually dipping below this level now — central bank orthodoxies have already been upended.

And this is true.

But so much of the discussion around Fed policy now assumes that we're moving back towards what Fed officials would call "normalized" policy with rates, again, near 3% or 4%. This might, however, turn out to simply be stone-age thinking in a radical new era for economics.

The early headlines out of Bullard's interview reflected his view that perhaps the "dot plot" — which gives an overview of where Fed officials think its benchmark interest rate should be at some point in the future, not where it will likely be — is not accomplishing what it's supposed to.

I'm sympathetic to this view, given that something as inscrutable as a chart with some dots scattered on it has gotten excessive attention from the market as the Fed's forecast for future rate increases when this is not the plot's function.

The point is, again, to reflect, given current conditions, where Fed officials think interest rates should be. In this way it's more of an academic argument than a market forecast.

march 2016 dot plot wide

But the biggest thing said by Bullard on Wednesday was outlining the view that perhaps we're already in a future of central banking where the obsession over when and where interest rates are heading can be done away with.

In recent speeches, Bullard has referenced the idea of a "permazero" present and future for central banks; Bullard referenced these comments on Bloomberg.

The "permazero" idea broadly says that the Fed's nominal policy rate can be set at zero indefinitely because in a neo-Fisherian model of interest rates nominal rates are made up of two parts: real rates and inflation expectations.

Here's Bullard from a November 2015 speech giving something like a plain-English explanation of what that means:

The Fisher equation states that the nominal interest rate can be decomposed into a real interest rate component and an expected inflation component. If we view the real interest rate as determined by supply and demand conditions in the private sector, then a permanent nominal interest rate peg would also pin down the long‐run rate of inflation. The Fisher equation implies, among other things, that the monetary authority cannot choose the long‐run value of the nominal policy interest rate separately from the long‐run value of inflation.

And so if the current low-interest-rate regime has anchored inflation expectations at something like the Fed's preferred level near 2%, then our modern "interest rate peg" is actually the optimal policy.

(Hence concerns about inflation expectations becoming "unanchored," which indicates policy that is no longer on a track to meet its inflation goals.)

Screen Shot 2016 03 23 at 2.02.09 PMIn a sense, then, the idea of a "permazero" rate has begun to prove its efficacy.

On Wednesday, however, Keene challenged Bullard on the overall viability of this idea of a "permazero rate."

Here's the exchange (transcript via Bloomberg, emphasis mine):

KEENE: The permazero for too many of the people that follow Bloomberg Surveillance, they follow Michael McKee and me, and we get blistering e-mails, as I'm sure you do, from people that are not the elites. They don't have your education or Mike's and my zip code and that. I want you to speak now to the people in the St. Louis district who go, I'll give you a permazero. It's been my income for ten years. Where does the economic growth fund come from? And you're the guy in your district that's seen the manufacturing drift away, that chronic sense of permazero for America. Where do we get the growth?

BULLARD: The central bank cannot drive the growth process. Here's what monetary policy is: There's a business cycle and if you run a good monetary policy, there's still a business cycle but it's not quite as big as the previous business cycle. So that's what monetary policy is. The growth rate is driven by long run factors in technology and human capital and what the U.S. needs is a better medium term growth strategy and you need everyone to get on board with that growth strategy. That's what you need. The central bank cannot do that.

And so here Bullard is saying that look, there are certain assumptions about where monetary policy fits into the economy and business cycle and we might need to re-think all of those. I expect this sort of discussion to continue more forcefully in the coming months and years.

In a speech last Friday, Bullard outlined the "macroeconomic equilibrium" seen from 1984-2007.

fredgraph (3)Returning to this period — and the corresponding interest rate policies put in place during this time — is seen a desirable because we had long economic expansions, shallow recessions, and monetary policy that was understood by policymakers and financial markets.

But what if everything has changed?

In the wake of the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates at 0.25%-0.50% — and the market's interpretation that we're going to see, at most, two more rate hikes this year while inflation is picking up and the unemployment rate remains low — it seems that it has.

In a way, the economic data implies the Fed has met its goals and can, in earnest, begin pushing policy back towards something "normal. And so there seems, then, to be a disconnect brewing not just between the Fed, the markets, and the data, but within the Fed itself.

Again, Fed officials are out jawboning on how April's meeting is "live," implying there's a chance interest rates could be increased. Markets think this is a fantasy.

And if the Fed has been backed into certain corners by the market's pricing — you can't raise rates, say, four times in six months against markets that have priced in four hikes over the next three years without getting some major shocks that could, in a nightmare scenario, ripple into the broader economy — then it's certainly worth re-thinking what we're really doing, what we're trying to accomplish, and how we're talking about it.

This is where Bullard is taking the conversation. 

SEE ALSO: The next housing crisis is here

Join the conversation about this story »

NOW WATCH: Here's what popular dog breeds looked like before and after 100 years of breeding

A new mobile wallet has hit the market (AAPL, BABA)

Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

China Smartphone Market Share by Vendor Chart

This story was delivered to BI Intelligence "Payments Industry Insider" subscribers. To learn more and subscribe, please click here.

Another mobile wallet has hit the market.

Huawei, the Chinese mobile phone manufacturer, has partnered with UnionPay, China's state-run card network, to launch Huawei Pay, the company's own mobile wallet, according to the Wall Street Journal.

The payment app, originally piloted in September, uses biometrics and NFC technology to make in-store payments through Huawei phones.

The partnership with UnionPay will give Huawei Pay a new level of reach in China, where UnionPay has a near monopoly on cards. Huawei Pay only worked at select merchants in the pilot phase, but now it can function in so many more locations in the world's most populous nation.

One roadblock, however, is that Huawei Pay will not work on all Huawei phones because it requires both fingerprint scanning and NFC tech, which not all of these devices have. Huawei expects to have this technology on more of its phones in the future.

Huawei Pay could draw in a large user base, as the company had a 15.5% share of the smartphone market in China as of Q4 2015.

Furthermore, smartphone vendors have been moving into China's active mobile payments market. Apple Pay launched in China in February and has seen much early success, while Samsung Pay is expected to debut in China in the next few months.

But these newer mobile wallets will face tough competition from established players. Alipay, the platform affiliated with Alibaba, has 400 million active users and nearly half of the third-party mobile payments market in China in Q3 2015, according to iResearch.

WeChat, the mobile messaging app that allows peer-to-peer transfers and other mobile commerce payments, has nearly 700 million users. Tenpay, which powers payments inside WeChat, has 20% of the market and is on track to process $556 billion in P2P payments in 2016.

This increase in competition could eat into Alipay's and Tenpay's share somewhat, as Apple Pay, Samsung Pay, and Huawei Pay all have strong brands that could attract users. But it remains to be seen if they can truly put a dent in the dominance that Alipay and Tenpay have had for so long.

The future of payments is rapidly changing as mobile wallets continue to gain popularity. One need look no further than the competition raging in China as evidence of this transformation.

But what will payments look like in a few years? Who will be the key players, and how will payments change for the consumer?

Evan Bakker and John Heggestuen, analysts at BI Intelligence, Business Insider's premium research service, have compiled a detailed report on the payments ecosystem that drills into the industry to explain how a broad range of transactions are processed, including prepaid and store cards, as well as revealing which types of companies are in the best and worst position to capitalize on the latest industry trends.

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Here are some key takeaways from the report:

  • 2016 will be a watershed year for the payments industry. Payments companies are improving security, expanding their mobile offerings, and building commerce capabilities that will give consumers a more compelling reason to make purchases using digital devices.
  • Payments is an extremely complex industry. To understand the next big digital opportunity lies, it's critical to understand how the traditional credit- and debit-processing chain works and what roles acquirers, processors, issuing banks, card networks, independent sales organizations, gateways, and software and hardware providers play.
  • Alternative technologies could disrupt the processing ecosystem. Devices ranging from refrigerators to smartwatches now feature payment capabilities, which will spur changes in consumer payment behaviors. Likewise, blockchain technology, the protocol that underlies Bitcoin, could one day change how consumer card payments are verified.

In full, the report:

  • Uncovers the key themes and trends affecting the payments industry in 2016 and beyond.
  • Gives a detailed description of the stakeholders involved in a payment transaction, along with hardware and software providers.
  • Offers diagrams and infographics explaining how card transactions are processed and which players are involved in each step.
  • Provides charts on our latest forecasts, key company growth, survey results, and more.
  • Analyzes the alternative technologies, including blockchain, which could further disrupt the ecosystem.

To get your copy of this invaluable guide, choose one of these options:

  1. Subscribe to an ALL-ACCESS Membership with BI Intelligence and gain immediate access to this report AND over 100 other expertly researched deep-dive reports, subscriptions to all of our daily newsletters, and much more. >> START A MEMBERSHIP
  2. Purchase the report and download it immediately from our research store. >> BUY THE REPORT

The choice is yours. But however you decide to acquire this report, you’ve given yourself a powerful advantage in your understanding of the payments ecosystem.

Join the conversation about this story »

Bitcoin Price Turn-Around At $420

CryptoCoins News, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

Bitcoin price attempted another shot at the 4-hour chart 200-period moving average today without success. The market lacks conviction and price should draw lower as a result. This analysis is provided by xbt.social with a 3-hour delay. Read the full analysis here. Not a member? Join now and receive a $29 discount using the code […]

The post Bitcoin Price Turn-Around At $420 appeared first on CCN: Financial Bitcoin & Cryptocurrency News.

Russian Finance MInistry Is Looking to Officially Ban Bitcoin

CryptoCoins News, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

The Finance Ministry in Russia, long known for taking an aggressive stance against Bitcoin is now developing a proposal to officially ban bitcoin in Russia. The proposal by the Finance Ministry cites the Russian Central Bank to be the sole issuing authority to create what it sees as the only valid currency in the country, […]

The post Russian Finance MInistry Is Looking to Officially Ban Bitcoin appeared first on CCN: Financial Bitcoin & Cryptocurrency News.

Global Markets Operator ICAP Successfully Implements Blockchain Technology Pilot

Bitcoin Magazine, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

ICAP, a leading markets operator and provider of post trade risk mitigation and information services with more than $1.6 billion in revenue,...

The post Global Markets Operator ICAP Successfully Implements Blockchain Technology Pilot appeared first on Bitcoin Magazine.

BitGo Engineers Launch Ethereum Wallet Side Project

CoinDesk, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

A group of software engineers at bitcoin security specialist BitGo have created a multi-sig wallet offering amid escalating interest in the platform.

German Tech Magazine Trials Employee Payroll with Bitcoin

CryptoCoins News, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

T3n, a German tech magazine has revealed that it will allow its employees to gain a portion of their salary in bitcoin. German tech publication t3n, an outlet that publishes technology news in both print and online media has revealed that it has been conducting a trial since November 2015 which sees its employees receive […]

The post German Tech Magazine Trials Employee Payroll with Bitcoin appeared first on CCN: Financial Bitcoin & Cryptocurrency News.

Are Any Altcoins Currenty Useful? No, Says Monero Developer Riccardo Spagni

Bitcoin Magazine, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

To many people in the Bitcoin community, altcoins are considered nothing more than scams. Part of the reason is that altcoin developers and...

The post Are Any Altcoins Currenty Useful? No, Says Monero Developer Riccardo Spagni appeared first on Bitcoin Magazine.

Are Any Altcoins Currenty Useful? No, Says Monero Developer Riccardo Spagni

Bitcoin Magazine, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

To many people in the Bitcoin community, altcoins are considered nothing more than scams. Part of the reason is that altcoin developers and...

The post Are Any Altcoins Currenty Useful? No, Says Monero Developer Riccardo Spagni appeared first on Bitcoin Magazine.

Oil Slump Hammers Kazakhstan Currency; Russian Central Bank To Explore Role For Bitcoin Blockchain

CryptoCoins News, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

The Central Bank of the Russian Federation will consider ways to use bitcoin blockchain technology when it meets in June as oil exporting countries such as Kazakhstan wrestle with eroding confidence in currency caused by low oil prices. Grigory Marchenko, the ex-chairman of the National Bank of Kazakhstan, wondered what impact cryptocurrency would have on […]

The post Oil Slump Hammers Kazakhstan Currency; Russian Central Bank To Explore Role For Bitcoin Blockchain appeared first on CCN: Financial Bitcoin & Cryptocurrency News.

NT$50 Million Taiwanese Bitcoin Investment Scam Swindles 1000 Investors

CryptoCoins News, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

A local report has revealed that a Taiwanese couple has allegedly defrauded over 1,000 people in Taiwan with the promise of a large-yield bitcoin investment that quickly proved to be a scam. A Ponzi scheme disguised as a high-yield investment program promoted by a couple simply known with the surname ‘Shi’ have defrauded over a […]

The post NT$50 Million Taiwanese Bitcoin Investment Scam Swindles 1000 Investors appeared first on CCN: Financial Bitcoin & Cryptocurrency News.

Wirex Enables Bitcoin Purchase via PayPal

CryptoCoins News, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

Wirex Limited, the London, U.K. producer of the E-Coin bitcoin debit card, has made it possible for users to buy bitcoin using an E-Coin virtual Visa card and PayPal. E-Coin users can buy bitcoin with PayPal from the following countries: Bahamas, Bahrain, Botswana, Bulgaria, Chile, Croatia, Estonia, Georgia, Gibraltar, Honduras, Iceland, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Jordan, […]

The post Wirex Enables Bitcoin Purchase via PayPal appeared first on CCN: Financial Bitcoin & Cryptocurrency News.

What Is Bitcoin Exchange Coinbase’s Vision, Mission & Strategy?

CryptoCoins News, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

Brian Armstrong took to Medium to elaborate upon the Coinbase mission.  The 100 person company, Armstrong notes, had grown too large for them to communicate daily with all of their employees, and therefore “we decided to craft a clear vision, mission and strategy for the company.” While he describes the process to determine the vision, […]

The post What Is Bitcoin Exchange Coinbase’s Vision, Mission & Strategy? appeared first on CCN: Financial Bitcoin & Cryptocurrency News.

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