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Bitcoin Price Advances, Tiring Legs Overdue

CryptoCoins News, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

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NH Lawmakers Advance Proposed Bitcoin MSB Exemption

CoinDesk, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

Legislators have advanced a bill in New Hampshire aimed at carving out regulatory exceptions for certain kinds of bitcoin businesses.

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Bank Of Canada: Digital Currencies Need Regulation to Succeed

CoinDesk, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

Researchers from Canada's central bank argue that private digital currencies like bitcoin won't succeed without some kind of government involvement.

Source

Campbell is sinking after sales fall more than expected (CPB)

Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

Campbell Soup Company is down 6.16% at $58.70 a share on Friday morning after reporting quarterly sales and profit that missed analysts' expectations. 

The soup maker saw the biggest sales drop in the fresh food business, which the company rolled out to keep up with demand for healthier foods. 

Here are the key numbers:

  • Profit of $101 million, or 33 cents a share, down from $265 million, or 85 cents, a year earlier
  • Excluding impairment charges related to the Campbell fresh and carrot businesses, earnings rose to 91 cents from 87 cents
  • Revenue dropped 1.4% to $2.17 billion

See Also: United Health sinks after being sued by the US government

Campbell Soup

 

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United Health sinks after being sued by the US government (UNH)

Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

United Health is down 3.76% at $157.50 a share on Friday morning after news that the US Justice Department joined a 2011 lawsuit by a former United Health executive against the health insurer. 

The lawsuit claims that United Health overcharged Medicare by hundreds of millions of dollars by claiming the program's participants were sicker than they actually were, according to the law firm Constantine Cannon LLP.

Constantine Cannon posted the lawsuit online when it was unsealed on Thursday.

See Also: Unilever rejected Kraft's takeover offer and the stock is soaring

United Health2

 

 

 

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DEUTSCHE BANK: These 2 risks could derail the US economy

Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

shopping

With the US economic recovery entering its eighth year, there continue to be questions about how much longer it can go on.

Torsten Sløk, Deutsche Bank's chief international economist who has been staunchly bullish on the economy for a while, wrote on two things that could derail the expansion in a client note on Friday. 

They both relate to consumer credit, which happened to be one of the biggest drags on the economy during the last recession.  

At the moment we worry about two downside risks to the US outlook," Sløk said.

"We have had a very long recovery, and credit quality is deteriorating," Sløk said. 

"The general problem is that as an expansion ages more money is allocated to less credit-worthy uses and as a result risks rise that borrowers will not be able to pay back the money they owe."

image006 (1)A report from the New York Fed showed that household debt rose in 2016 and was $99 billion short of the peak in 2008. According to The Wall Street Journal, the increase last year was the most in a decade.  

Late payments on credit card debt continue to increase, as the chart shows.

But credit card delinquencies cover just one kind of consumer debt. The New York Fed's report also showed that in the fourth quarter, total delinquencies were roughly stable. Balances that were 30 days late made up 1.1% of all balances in the fourth quarter, a hair above the cycle low of 1% recorded in Q1. 

Sløk's second worry amid his bullish view is on how the economy responds to higher interest rates, which the Federal Reserve theoretically uses to cool demand for credit in a heating economy.

But with interest rates still near 0% and economic growth only satisfactory, the recent slowdown in lending growth may have been too severe. 

Banks reported weaker demand for mortgage loans in the fourth quarter according to the Fed's Senior Loan Officer Survey, likely because of the rise in interest rates after the election. 

Screen Shot 2017 02 17 at 9.05.27 AMThis happened even with the fed funds rate at 0.66%, a historically low level that the Federal Reserve is on track to continue nudging higher if the economy doesn't slow down. 

"The bottom line is that we have an aging expansion with easy money for a long period and this has resulted in more and more lending to lower-quality consumers and corporates, and as interest rates begin to rise these lower-quality borrowers may not be able to service their loans," Sløk said. 

The important question, he added is whether the number of low-quality borrowers is large enough to slow down the economy. 

"The prospects of President Trump implementing pro-growth policies will likely delay when we enter the next recession but it remains clear that the downside risks of keeping interest rates 'lower for longer' are not going away," Sløk said. 

SEE ALSO: Managers at a $1 trillion asset manager say investors are dangerously underplaying 3 things

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Unilever rejected Kraft's takeover offer and the stock is soaring (KHC, UNILEVER)

Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

Shares in Unilever are up 12.26% at $37.51 a share while Kraft Heinz is up 2.49% at $93.37 a share on Friday morning after Unilever rejected Kraft's takeover bid.

Kraft, the maker of Velveeta, Mac and Cheese, and Heinz Ketchup approached the company behind Ben & Jerry's, Hellman's mayonnaise and Dove with a $143 billion offer. 

While Kraft said in a statement that they "look forward to working to reach agreement on the terms of a transaction," a Unilever statement says the company "rejected the proposal as it sees no merit, either financial or strategic, for Unilever's shareholders."

A merger between the two firms would be one of the biggest in history.

See also: Bank of America summed up the huge change taking places in markets in one simple graphic

Unilever 

Kraft Heinz

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Unilever rejected Kraft's takeover offer and the stock is soaring (KHC, UNILEVER)

Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

Shares in Unilever are up 12.26% at $37.51 a share while Kraft Heinz is up 2.49% at $93.37 a share on Friday morning after Unilever rejected Kraft's takeover bid.

Kraft, the maker of Velveeta, Mac and Cheese, and Heinz Ketchup approached the company behind Ben & Jerry's, Hellman's mayonnaise and Dove with a $143 billion offer. 

While Kraft said in a statement that they "look forward to working to reach agreement on the terms of a transaction," a Unilever statement says the company "rejected the proposal as it sees no merit, either financial or strategic, for Unilever's shareholders."

A merger between the two firms would be one of the biggest in history.

See also: Bank of America summed up the huge change taking places in markets in one simple graphic

Unilever 

Kraft Heinz

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Something funky happened in Unilever trading just before Kraft-Heinz announced it attempted a takeover (UL, KHC)

Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

traders busy frantic questions

On Friday, Kraft-Heinz confirmed that it had approached Unilever about a $143 billion merger in what would be one of the largest M&A deals ever.

This followed a Financial Times post breaking the news early on Friday that Unilever had been approached to create one of the world's largest consumer goods companies. Unilever and Kraft, however, subsequently said the offer had been rejected.

Recent options trading in Unilever, however, has raised some eyebrows as a spike in upside bets started a few days before the deal was announced.

According to data collected by Bloomberg, 10,909 call options were traded on Wednesday, February 15, the most since 2011. Essentially, these are contracts that give an investor a right to buy Unilever stock specified price at a specified time. Call options are typically thought of as a bet the stock will go up, since a trader profits if the stock goes above the option price.

Essentially, these are contracts that give an investor a right to buy Unilever stock at a specified price at a specified time. Call options are typically thought of as a bet the stock will go up, since a trader profits if the stock goes above the option price.

According to the Bloomberg data, this was the highest number of bullish bets on Unilever's stock since 2011. Additionally, put options — basically, the opposite bet on the stock falling — only traded 232 times on Wednesday.

On Wednesday, most of the calls bought were for $40 and $45 strike prices with the expiration date of March 17. According to the company's Kraft's offer was for $50 a share for Unilever, so the bets are already profitable as Unilever shares are up 10% near $47 on Friday.

The pattern wasn't confined to Wednesday either, 5,186 call options traded on Thursday, February 16 in the US versus just 31 put options.

Unilever closed at $42.57 a share on Thursday.

SEE ALSO: Unilever, the £112 billion maker of the world's most popular brands rejected a takeover bid from Kraft Heinz

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Bitcoin Price Shows Resiliency, Hits $1,050

CryptoCoins News, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

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The post Bitcoin Price Shows Resiliency, Hits $1,050 appeared first on CryptoCoinsNews.

The Russian ruble is tumbling

Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

Screen Shot 2017 02 17 at 8.07.05 AM

The Russian ruble is tumbling.

The petro-currency is down by 1.0% at 58.1678 per dollar as of 8:06 a.m. ET.

Earlier, data showed that Russian PPI rose by 12.7% year-over-year in January, marking the highest inflation since November 2015. It followed the 7.4% increase in December. 

Moreover, Brent crude oil prices, which are down by 0.5% at $55.38 per barrel.

Although the ruble is down on Friday, the currency has strengthened in February, which has rattled folks in the Ministry of Finance, and has even drawn the attention of the Kremlin.

And, notably, there are a couple of unusual things about the currency's recent appreciation: first, the ruble has somewhat disconnected from oil prices, and second, it's not entirely clear what has been driving the rally.

As for the rest of the world, here's the scoreboard as of 8:16 a.m. ET:

  • The British pound is down by 0.5% at 1.2426 against the dollar after UK retail sales missed big. Retail sales rose by 1.5% year-over-year in January, which was below the projected 3.4% increase. Separately, the number of European Union workers in the UK fell by 50,000 to 2.3 million in the fourth quarter, markin the largest drop in five years, according to the Office for National Statistics.
  • The euro is down by 0.2% at 1.0650 against the dollar. In other euro news, Eurozone countries look like they might miss a self-imposed deadline next Monday to agree on aid measures for Greece, which might run out of money in July.
  • The US dollar index is up by 0.2% at 100.63 on quiet data day. The Baker Hughes rig count will be released at 1 p.m. ET.

SEE ALSO: What 25 major world leaders and dictators looked like when they were young

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Deere says the global farming recession may be coming to an end (DE)

Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

deere and company

Deere and Company reported stronger than expected first-quarter earnings on Friday, and the company offered hope for the future.

The farming equipment maker reported quarterly earnings of $0.61 versus analysts' expectations $0.55 per share. The company also said sales came in at $4.70 billion for the quarter, above the $4.63 billion projected by analysts.

In addition to the strong results, Deere CEO Samuel Allen said that the farming sector that has been hurting the company was finally bouncing back.

With declining agricultural prices leading to weaker equipment sales, Deere has been sounding the alarm on a "global farming recession" over the past few quarters as an explanation of declining results. The worst of this farming recession, according to Allen, may be over.

"Although the quarter's sales and earnings were somewhat lower than last year, all of our businesses remained solidly profitable," said Allen in a press release accompanying earnings.

"Deere's performance showed further benefits from the sound execution of its operating plans, the strength of a broad product portfolio and the impact of a more flexible cost structure. At the same time, we are seeing signs that after several years of steep declines key agricultural markets may be stabilizing."

Following the news, shares of Deere and Company ticked up in pre-market trading. The stock had jumped 2.9% had as of 7:48 a.m. ET at $112.37 a share.

Screen Shot 2017 02 17 at 7.49.55 AM

SEE ALSO: The US economy may be catching up to America's Trump-inspired enthusiasm

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Bitcoin Investor Roger Ver to Push for OKCoin Liquidation in Court

CoinDesk, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

Bitcoin investor Roger Ver’s legal fight against Chinese bitcoin exchange OKCoin is intensifying as he pushes for the firm to be liquidated.

Source

Bank of America summed up the huge change taking places in markets in one simple graphic

Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

DAVOS MEETING

For seven years after the financial crisis, it was all about Davos Man. 

The Davos Man was at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, the annual global meeting of minds with the mission of improving the state of the world through global partnership. 

Now, in the wake of the election of Donald Trump and the UK's decision to leave the EU, another type of individual is moving to the forefront: Joe Six-Pack. (We note that both of these individuals are men, but that's a topic for another day.)

Where the "Davos" man lived in a world of secular stagnation, regulation and globalization, the world of All-American "Joe Six-Pack" is one of recovery, deregulation and economic nationalism.

Growth stocks give way to value stocks, bonds to commodities and the emphasis on Wall Street to Main Street.

That's according to a note by Bank of America on Thursday and summed up by the chart below. 

Here's what it means for assets as we head into a period of nationalism (Joe Six-Pack) from an era of globalization (the Davos Man). 

Screen Shot 2017 02 16 at 11.45.27 AMElements of Bank of America's predictions are already happening. After the financial crisis, the US experienced a period of low rates, slow growth and President Obama-led regulation. The "Joe Six-Pack" world sees President Trump's proposed policies of fiscal stimulus, infrastructure spending, deregulation and protectionist measures along with a Fed rate hike cycle. 

Earlier this month, the president ordered a review of Dodd-Frank, the 2010 financial regulatory law, and directed the secretary of labor to review the fiduciary rule, a regulation set to go into effect in April. His policies on immigration and potential protectionist measures like a border tariff also support Bank of America's theme of economic nationalism. 

The team believe that a "further rotation is likely as deflation ends and inflation, fiscal stimulus and economic nationalism begin."

SEE ALSO: 

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Bank of America summed up the huge change taking places in markets in one simple graphic

Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

DAVOS MEETING

For seven years after the financial crisis, it was all about Davos Man. 

The Davos Man was at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, the annual global meeting of minds with the mission of improving the state of the world through global partnership. 

Now, in the wake of the election of Donald Trump and the UK's decision to leave the EU, another type of individual is moving to the forefront: Joe Six-Pack. (We note that both of these individuals are men, but that's a topic for another day.)

Where the "Davos" man lived in a world of secular stagnation, regulation and globalization, the world of All-American "Joe Six-Pack" is one of recovery, deregulation and economic nationalism.

Growth stocks give way to value stocks, bonds to commodities and the emphasis on Wall Street to Main Street.

That's according to a note by Bank of America on Thursday and summed up by the chart below. 

Here's what it means for assets as we head into a period of nationalism (Joe Six-Pack) from an era of globalization (the Davos Man). 

Screen Shot 2017 02 16 at 11.45.27 AMElements of Bank of America's predictions are already happening. After the financial crisis, the US experienced a period of low rates, slow growth and President Obama-led regulation. The "Joe Six-Pack" world sees President Trump's proposed policies of fiscal stimulus, infrastructure spending, deregulation and protectionist measures along with a Fed rate hike cycle. 

Earlier this month, the president ordered a review of Dodd-Frank, the 2010 financial regulatory law, and directed the secretary of labor to review the fiduciary rule, a regulation set to go into effect in April. His policies on immigration and potential protectionist measures like a border tariff also support Bank of America's theme of economic nationalism. 

The team believe that a "further rotation is likely as deflation ends and inflation, fiscal stimulus and economic nationalism begin."

SEE ALSO: 

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Here's the most important exported good from every state

Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

International trade is an important part of the US economy, and that is also true for the economies of the 50 states and DC that together make up that national economy.

The US Census Bureau keeps track of state-by-state international trade statistics. Using their data, we looked at the biggest exported good as measured by 2015 dollar value in each state and DC.

state export map

SEE ALSO: Here are the fastest growing states in the US

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Marine Le Pen wants to leave the euro — here's what that might mean for the 'new French franc'

Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

Marine Le Pen, French National Front (FN) political party leader, gestures during an FN political rally in Frejus, France, September 18, 2016. REUTERS/Jean-Paul Pelissier/File Photo

Front National leader and French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen is not the biggest fan of the euro.

"The euro is not a currency. It is a political weapon to force countries to implement the policies decided by the [European Union] and keep them on a leash," she had said previously.

"Look at what happened to the Greeks when they said no to austerity, as they were right to do: Liquidity for the banks was cut off."

She said if she became president, then she would assemble European Union leaders and the European Central Bank and would ask them to replace the euro with a basket of new national currencies analogous to the European Currency Unit (ECU).

Bloomberg's Helene Fouquet reported earlier how exactly this might play out, citing Le Pen's adviser Bernand Monot:

"France’s currency would probably be called the 'new French franc' and it would initially be equivalent to the euro, Monot said. The French state would pledge to limit its fluctuations against the EU currency basket to a maximum of 20%, though Monot said movement up to 10% would be more normal. There’s no timetable as yet for introducing the new currency and if the other euro nations decline to adopt their national currencies again, then the new franc would float freely."

Some economists have argued that if Le Pen pursued this strategy, then the "new franc" might weaken sharply against the euro.

"The new franc would clearly not remain at parity with the euro for very long. The key question, therefore, is what would happen then," Jessica Hinds, European economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note to clients.

She continued in greater detail:

"To assess this, it is useful to look at France’s competitive position. Standard measures include manufacturing unit labor costs, since the bulk of exports are produced by this sector. On this measure, France has fared worse than the euro-zone since 1999. Indeed, the relative increase in France implies that a depreciation of 15% in real terms is needed to restore France’s competitiveness to where it was in 1999. However, since other competitiveness measures such as export prices show that France has fared better than the euro-zone over this period, a fall of 5-10% seems more likely.

But a bigger nominal depreciation would be needed. After all, a sudden, sharp drop in the franc would raise import prices, such that higher inflation would partly offset the effects of a depreciation. Granted, the fact that the French economy is fairly closed by eurozone standards might limit imported inflation. Nonetheless, a fall of about 10-15% against the euro appears to be plausible."

Of course, before Le Pen can take France off the euro, she must first win the election.

The first round will be held on April 23 and the second round will take place on May 7.  

As things stand right now, recent opinion polls suggest that it looks increasingly likely that the final showdown in May will be between far-right Marine Le Pen, the leader of the nationalist Front National, and centrist Emmanuel Macron, who is running as an independent.

Polls suggest that Le Pen would come out on top in the first round, but that she would be defeated in the second round — although, of course, things in politics could change quickly and it would be wise to regard opinion polls with a degree of caution.

macron versus marine le pen issues

SEE ALSO: What 25 major world leaders and dictators looked like when they were young

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Is Bitcoin Forming a New Price Floor at $1,000?

CoinDesk, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

Are bitcoin prices forming a new support floor as we speak? Only time will tell. Between then and now, we can review the input of market experts.

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