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Bitcoin could be on the edge of a cliff

Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

FILE PHOTO - A Bitcoin sign is seen in a window in Toronto, May 8, 2014.   REUTERS/Mark Blinch/File Photo

Let me be clear: I do not trade bitcoin, but I do write about it often.

Before going into journalism, I spent my days trading. I learned a lot about technical analysis during that time, and right now, technical analysis spells huge trouble ahead for the cryptocurrency. 

Let's recap what has been going on in the bitcoin market so far this year. 

Bitcoin rallied 120% in 2016 and has been the top-performing currency in each of the last two years. It opened 2017 by gaining 20% in the first week before crashing 35% on news that China was going to consider clamping down on trading. 

Since then, bitcoin has ripped higher by more than 50% even in the face of several pieces of bad news.

First, China's biggest bitcoin exchanges said they were going to start charging a 0.2% fee on all transactions (previously there was no fee). This was significant as nearly 100% of bitcoin's trading volume takes places on China's exchanges. 

Then, China's biggest exchanges said they were going to block withdrawals from trading accounts. 

But bitcoin kept climbing higher.

It put in a record high of $1,327 a coin on March 10 as traders piled in ahead of the US Securities and Exchange Commission's ruling on the Winklevoss twins' bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). The SEC denied the ETF.

That ruling sent bitcoin crashing 16% lower, but again it was ultimately resilient in the face of bad news. Prices snapped back up in overnight trade and ended the following session above the previous day's opening price. 

All of those ups and downs, though, have left the cryptocurrency in a precarious position. Take a look at a bitcoin chart:

Bitcoin

The chart pattern appears to be putting in a classic double top pattern. In very simple terms, that's describing those two peaks you see highlighted above. 

What the double top does, is give us a clue to where traders will go from buying to selling bitcoin. In order for this pattern to be activated, bitcoin would have to close below the neckline, which appears near the $1,100 level. 

And while that hasn't happened yet, there is another troubling sign that's popping up on the charts. 

Bitcoin volume

Bitcoin volume exploded into the end of 2016, but has vanished in 2017. This means that as the price was going up, the drop in volume didn't support the price trend. In other words, there wasn't any conviction behind the move. It appears that the transaction fees implemented by China's biggest exchanges have caused participation to dry up.

So where is bitcoin headed? 

If the cryptocurrency falls below the neckline drawn on the first chart, the charts suggest a trip to the $900 area is likely. That's $300 a coin less than it's current level, or a 25% drop. 

SEE ALSO: We bought and sold bitcoin — here's how it works

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NOW WATCH: 7 mega-billionaires who made a fortune last year

Shutdown of Bitcoin Exchange Bitcurex Under Investigation by Polish Prosecutor

CryptoCoins News, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

[…]

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Vinny Lingham Says Bitcoin Hard Fork Should be Avoided, Buterin Argues

CryptoCoins News, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

[…]

The post Vinny Lingham Says Bitcoin Hard Fork Should be Avoided, Buterin Argues appeared first on CryptoCoinsNews.

Trump’s slash-and-burn budget could hit his own political base the hardest

Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

trump supporters

Donald Trump’s proposed budget fits a familiar pattern for the president: When backed into a corner, go for the jugular.

This time, the victim are federal government programs aimed at some of the neediest Americans, many of whom voted for Trump last year in the hopes that he might improve their lot.

Trump’s plans are in keeping with his promise to make the government smaller, with one very large caveat that is paid for with those essential services cuts: a $54 billion proposed increase in defense spending from the same man who spent years criticizing US military action overseas.

His priorities also say a lot about the likely composition of any future budget expenditures — including proposed fiscal stimulus and infrastructure programs that have been much discussed but on which few details are available. 

What sorts of massively wasteful government functions is Trump cutting? Try a 30% wallop to funding for the State Department, which his own Secretary of Defense James Mattis has warned is crucial to American national security, by helping to project the sort of diplomatic power that prevents conflict in the first place.

Trump’s support among members of the military and veterans should have him looking to avoid wars, not start new ones. Instead, the president’s hawkish tone is derided by the same former military officers Trump has placed into high positions of power in his Cabinet.

What about his support among poor white voters? They stand to lose big from massive cuts to anti-poverty programs, without even counting the strong likelihood that Trumpcare will deprive millions of healthcare.  

"It stands beyond reason that a president who claimed to be concerned with ‎working Americans, expanding the American economy, and keeping Americans healthy would author a budget that makes sweeping cuts to all these critical areas," House Democratic Caucus Chairman Joe Crowley said in a statement. The proposal "amounts to an assault on working families and the poor," he added.

It’s not just Democrats. Many Republicans are already fighting back, with Senator Lindsay Graham stating the proposal will be dead-on-arrival in Congress.

Sharp cuts to the environment, seen as a progressive cause, may actually hurt many Republican-dominated states the most. By gutting funding for the Environmental Protection Agency, which would lose 3,000 workers, Trump would be leaving states with weak environmental agencies most vulnerable.

"Look to have a lot more situations like the one in West Virginia a few years ago where people didn't have clean drinking water or even water suitable for bathing because a local mining operation had dumped waste in the river that was their water source," says Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) in Washington.

But even if Trump’s budget, like his healthcare bill, stands little chance of becoming law in its current form, Wall Street should be playing closer attention to what the president’s priorities say about the chances of a future spending boom of that sort that underpins stronger economic growth and productivity. After all, economists on both sides of the political divide agree that stimulus policies aimed at the very neediest segments of society are more effective, because the money gets spent right away and the positive momentum feeds on itself. Tax cuts for the rich, or giveaways to big corporations, on the other hand, tend to get stashed away in an uncertain economic environment.

Trump’s budget breaks another key vow of the campaign — that Mexico would pay for his proposed construction of a “wall” along the US-Mexico border. Instead, it turns out, it's American taxpayers who will be footing the multi-billion dollar tab.  

SEE ALSO: Trump's immigration plans could cripple the US economy and hurt the workers he's pledging to protect

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NOW WATCH: This animation shows how terrifyingly powerful nuclear weapons have become

Why Wells Fargo Tried to Start a Bitcoin Exchange in 2013

CryptoCoins News, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

[…]

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Analyst: A Bitcoin ETF Stands No Chance Chance with SEC Committed to Protecting Fiat Currency

CryptoCoins News, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

[…]

The post Analyst: A Bitcoin ETF Stands No Chance Chance with SEC Committed to Protecting Fiat Currency appeared first on CryptoCoinsNews.

Bitcoin's Scaling Debate is Devolving Into an All-Out Twitter War

CoinDesk, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

The community has been in a furore over an attack that took down 70% of Bitcoin Unlimited nodes. Here are 12 of the best Twitter responses.

Source

Want To Be A VC? This Firm Is Making It Possible For Everyday People

Forbes, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

In a harbinger of how venture capital may work someday, Blockchain Capital is raising part of its next fund by issuing a digital token similar to bitcoin.

Bitcoin Card Provider Wirex Raises $3 Million from Japan’s SBI for Asian Expansion

CryptoCoins News, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

[…]

The post Bitcoin Card Provider Wirex Raises $3 Million from Japan’s SBI for Asian Expansion appeared first on CryptoCoinsNews.

The Initial Coin Offering, the Bitcoin-y Stock That’s Not Stock—But Definitely a Big Deal

Wired, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

The Initial Coin Offering, the Bitcoin-y Stock That’s Not Stock—But Definitely a Big Deal
Next month, Blockchain Capital will build a new venture capital fund using a bitcoin-like digital token instead of dollars The post The Initial Coin Offering, the Bitcoin-y Stock That's Not Stock—But Definitely a Big Deal appeared first on WIRED.

Alaskan Lawmakers Seek to License Bitcoin Businesses

CoinDesk, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

Alaska is considering regulatory changes that would require digital currency firms to obtain money transmission licenses.

Source

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