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5 reasons why the post-crisis economic cycle is ending (DIA, SPX, SPY, QQQ, TLT, IWM)

Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

car salesman

During the post-financial crisis economic recovery, a few things have been true. 

Overall GDP growth has been so-so. 

Job gains have exceeded almost all expectations. 

Asset markets have re-couped all of their crisis losses and then some. 

But under the hood of these headline observations, Conor Sen at New River Investments identified the five elements of this recovery that have been real standouts: energy investments, auto sales, multi-family residential construction, tech job growth, and corporate borrowing. 

And in Sen's view, these five drivers are, if not totally maxed out, certainly past their best days. 

Over the last year, the price of oil has collapsed, and as a result investment in oil-related businesses has slowed while production looks to finally be slowing

Auto sales have been ripping higher, but in Sen's view it's unlikely that a continued increase in auto sales would drive meaningful additional growth.

Additionally, concerns around subprime auto lending have made some people nervous about whether or not we've created a bubble with eerily similar characteristics to what crippled the economy following the housing bust. 

Meanwhile multi-family construction is at a 40-year high, tech jobs — which Sen admits is sort of a rough measure of adding San Francisco and San Jose metro area employment totals — have surged past their Nasdaq bubble peak, while corporate borrowing as a percent of GDP is back at new highs. 

And again, on their own none of these are smoking guns pointing to an economy that's about to roll over, but Sen's point is simply that these areas of the economy aren't likely to show a huge amount of improvement going forward. 

Overall, Sen is bullish on the US economy, and he has been one of the main proponents of the idea that we're about to see a changing of the economic guard over the next several years. 

In Sen's view, millennials are going to form households and engage in much of the same spending behavior that drove economic expansions in the 1980s and 1990s. The balance of power in the labor market is also likely to shift from employers to employees, leading to an uptick in wages and a resulting uptick in inflation. 

And so things are still looking up long term, but the economic themes that have outperformed for the last few years are likely done and a new economic story is about to get underway in the US. 

Read Sen's full post here »

SEE ALSO: The last time this happened in the junk bond market things ended badly

Join the conversation about this story »

NOW WATCH: The killer jobs report could mean a rate hike in December

Extortionists Are Threatening To Release Patreon User Data

TechCrunch, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

CUWSmg-UkAEhWGZ Cartoonist Steve Streza posted a tweet claiming that an extortionist would release his “tax id, tax forms, SSN, [and] DOB” if he did not pay one bitcoin to a certain bitcoin wallet. The extortion is quite ham-handed – there’s no way to confirm payment, for example and it’s not clear how much of the data was actually leaked in a recent Patreon. A Patreon… Read More

India’s Prime Minister Urges Global War On Terrorist Funding At Asset Recovery Conference

CryptoCoins News, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

The Paris attacks last week were a reminder that terrorists possess remarkable adaptability in generating the finances to fund their activities, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in New Delhi on Wednesday at the 6th Global Focal Point Conference on Asset Recovery, according to The Hindu. Delegates from more than 30 nations attended the three-day conference at Vigyan Bhawan, New Delhi. The meeting was organized by INTERPOL, India’s Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) and the World Bank - United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) StAR (Stolen Asset Recovery) Initiative. The conference provides participants acting as national “focal points” […]

The post India’s Prime Minister Urges Global War On Terrorist Funding At Asset Recovery Conference appeared first on CCN: Financial Bitcoin & Cryptocurrency News.

Shift is a debit card for your bitcoin wallet

Engadget, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

Even though the banking industry and US regulators are getting on board the bitcoin train, actually spending your hard-mined bitcoins can be a bit tricky. Luckily, Coinbase debuted a solution on Friday: the Shift debit card. It's the first such bit...

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