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Why Bitcoin Can’t Help The Poorest – Yet

TechCrunch, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

a9329ebf6090afb969b7a98195460892 The term “financial inclusion” is a new buzzword in the fintech space. With the rise of services like Abra and MPesa, we are convinced that bitcoin is the solution to the problems of the unbanked. With bitcoin, we say, the house cleaner in Dubai can get her money home and the refugee can get his money over the border into a safer place. I’m even known to wax poetic about… Read More

Ledger Wallet Is One Of The Most Secure Bitcoin Wallets You Can Get

TechCrunch, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

You can call Ledger Wallet CEO Eric Larchevêque the Winklevoss of France given that he stores around 1,000 bitcoins on his bitcoin wallet — that’s around $450,000 as of today. But it also shows how secure the company’s wallet is. I interviewed him on our stage at CES. Read More

Bitcoin Price Analysis: XT Hardfork Has Insufficient Support

CryptoCoins News, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

Bitcoin XT has failed to attract majority support and has not achieved 750 blocks in the best chain at its activation date. This analysis is provided by xbt.social with a 3-hour delay. Read the full analysis here. Not a member? Join now and receive a $29 discount using the code CCN29. Bitcoin Price Analysis Time […]

The post Bitcoin Price Analysis: XT Hardfork Has Insufficient Support appeared first on CCN: Financial Bitcoin & Cryptocurrency News.

How the oil collapse stole Russia's Christmas

Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

Pipes are pictured at an oil gathering facility owned by Bashneft company near the village of Shushnur, northwest from Ufa, Bashkortostan, January 28, 2015. The signs read:

By Sujata Rao and Jason Bush

LONDON/MOSCOW (Reuters) - A plunge in the oil price to 12-year lows during Russia's New Year and Orthodox Christmas break means the country returns to work on Monday with its economic recovery and once-mighty savings war chest on the line.

The equity and currency turmoil in China that rippled through world markets during Russians' 10-day festive holiday pushed Brent crude futures to around $32 a barrel, down from $45 at the start of December and a step closer to the $20 price trough predicted by Goldman Sachs.

Crude's collapse from $100 a barrel since mid-2014 has already pummeled Russia, which relies on energy for about half its budget revenues and 40 percent of its exports. The latest slide compounds the problems facing President Vladimir Putin ahead of elections in 2018.

Due to thin local holiday trading, the rouble fell only 2 percent last week, but the 75-per-dollar rate is not far now from the 80.1 record low hit 13 months ago.

Back then, Russia defended the currency by raising interest rates by 500 basis points overnight; a sharp rouble move lower in coming weeks could force a repeat of that action.

Inflation would surge, and the recession that the government had forecast ending this year would be extended.

In the worst-case scenario with oil staying at or below $30 per barrel, Russia's coffers would empty in just over a year, leaving little to show for a decade of bumper oil earnings.

For Putin, the $100 billion-plus Russia still has in two rainy-day funds, is "the ultimate insurance policy to navigate the election," says Christopher Granville, managing director of Trusted Sources, an investment consultancy.

Granville notes this year's planned budget deficit of 3 percent of annual economic output hinges on $50-a-barrel oil, a gap the government had hoped to fill by borrowing and dipping into the national reserve fund.

But oil at $30 would blow the hole out to 5 percent or more, Granville says. If that happens, Putin may have to risk irking voters with tax hikes and savage spending cuts that throw the economy deeper into recession.

Or he must dig even deeper into rapidly-dwindling savings.

Borrowing on international bond markets or privatizations are also possible but neither is attractive in view of depressed share prices and high borrowing costs.

Investors' appetite for Russia is further dampened by continuing Western sanctions imposed to punish Moscow's actions in Ukraine, although the sanctions do not directly prevent Russia from borrowing.

The two sovereign funds are already being depleted. In early December, they contained $130 billion, down from mid-2014 peaks around $180 billion. The government also has to find a trillion roubles, some 1.2 percent of GDP, that has been promised to bail out state development VEB.

"The national savings buffers are worth around 6.5 percent of GDP at present and that's the basis of saying they will run out of cash by the middle of next year - unless the oil price goes up," said Granville, who had adjusted the paper value of the funds to reflect off-budget commitments.

"But to eke out the buffers until the election will require meaningful spending cuts now... Desperate times call for desperate measures."

Many Russians will return from the holidays only too aware that life is about to get harder.

Civil servants' salaries will be frozen for the third year, pensions are to rise less than inflation; foreign goods and vacations will become even more expensive.

The blow to living standards is leading some to draw parallels with Russia's previous financial crisis in 1998, when the government defaulted and the rouble lost three-quarters of its value.

"It feels like the 1998 crisis all over again. My salary's value in dollars has more than halved, I now earn less than I did in 1997," said Yelena, a Moscow-based newspaper journalist who asked that her surname not be used.

FORECASTS IN DANGER

Investors who fled Russia after the rouble collapse have gradually been returning, encouraged by double-digit bond returns last year, a slight thaw in ties with the West and signs the economy was over the worst.

Expectations interest rates would fall further after 600 bps in cuts over 2015 allowed the government to predict economic growth of 0.7 percent and 1.9 percent this year and the next.

Those forecasts will be in danger if oil does not recover, admits David Hauner, head of CEEMEA debt and strategy at Bank of America Merrill Lynch who has been bullish on Russian bonds.

"As long as oil keeps falling, Russia will keep falling," Hauner said. "We do need to acknowledge that if the market gets disorderly, everything could change quickly and the ice is getting somewhat thin now."

Hauner remains positive on Russian bonds however, noting BAML expects crude to bounce to $50 per barrel later in 2016.

But oil markets are bracing for bigger falls, partly on fears China's economy is in worse shape than it appears.

Investors have started acquiring "put" options that give them the right to sell Brent futures at $25, reflecting expectations of falls below that price. And Russia's Urals crude blend usually trades $2-$3 below Brent.

UBS strategist Manik Narain is one of many analysts reviewing his Russia forecasts - late last year he estimated the rouble would average 75 per dollar in 2016.

The lower oil goes, the harder it is to predict outcomes for the rouble and the economy, he said.

"The big risk is of non-linear currency moves because oil going from $30 to $20 will provoke a very different rouble response from a $40-$30 move," Narain said, citing a likely panic effect among citizens and businesses.

(Additional reporting by Dmitry Zhdannikov; graphics by Vincent Flasseur; editing by Philippa Fletcher)

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Here's how the technology behind bitcoin could completely overhaul banking

Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST

William Mougayar, Virtual Capital Partners.

2015 was the year of the blockchain for banks.

Financial institutions became obsessed with figuring out how to use the blockchain — the software that underpins bitcoin — for everything from "smart" contracts to issuing shares to clearing payments.

Blockchain is a name for the software underpinning bitcoin that uses complex cryptography and distributed ledgers — copies of records in multiple places — to regulate, record, and enable transactions using bitcoin. In effect, it lets users — the "crowd"" — police the monetary system without any central bank or regulator.

Over 40 top investment banks have joined an industry-wide consortium looking at how the technology can be adapted to traditional finance and Goldman Sachs has declared that the technology could change "well, everything."

William Mougayar, a partner at new Toronto-based venture capital firm Virtual Capital Ventures, says the technology has the potential to be the "new internet" for financial services, heralding a huge wave of innovation and re-invention. (He's not the only one who's compared blockchain to the internet.)

Mougayar has authored an extensive slideshow on what exactly the impact of blockchain and blockchain companies could be on financial services, complete with advice for banks on how to tackle the tech. He offered to share it with BI — check it out below.







See the rest of the story at Business Insider
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