STOCKS HIT ALL-TIME HIGHS: Here's what you need to know
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Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST Stocks hit all-time highs again on Friday. All three major indices hit all-time highs, although they retraced some of their gains as the afternoon progressed. Stocks also climbed on Thursday following US President Donald Trump's announcement that he would release his plan to reform the tax system in the new few weeks. In any case, first up, the scoreboard:
1. Wall Street's top regulator is resigning from the Fed. Daniel Tarullo will resign from the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors on or around April 5, according to a statement on Friday. President Barack Obama appointed Tarullo in 2009 for a term that would have expired at the end of January 2022. 2. US consumer confidence dropped for the first time since the election. The University of Michigan's survey of consumers showed a drop in expectations for economic growth. The preliminary sentiment index for February slipped from a 12-year high in January to 95.7. It had been forecast at 98, down from 98.5, according to Bloomberg. 3. Canada's jobs report crushed it, with the labor market adding 48,300 jobs in January, compared to economists' forecasts of a loss of 10,000. "Overall, recent employment data provide further evidence confirming the recovery in the economy from the oil price shock," David Madani, the senior Canada economist at Capital Economics, wrote. "The next big challenge might be Trump's protectionist threats which, if acted on, would be very negative for Canada’s small open economy." 4. GOP lawmakers got blasted on Obamacare at a town hall. "There are people who have cancer that have that coverage that have to have that coverage to make sure they don't die," one man, Mike Carlson, said. "And you want to take away this coverage and have nothing to replace it with. How can I trust you to do anything that's in our interest at all?" 5. Elizabeth Warren and Tammy Baldwin wrote a letter to Goldman Sachs' CEO asking how much influence Goldman has over Trump. Specifically, Warren and Baldwin are concerned about how much input former and current Goldman Sachs employees have had over recent executive orders to roll back regulations on Wall Street, including the Dodd-Frank law that regulated banks after the financial crisis. 6. Reckitt Benckiser, the maker of Durex condoms, is buying a baby-formula company — and Wall Street stands to make more than $100 million from the deal. The deal is one of the largest announced this year. 7. US oil rig count climbs for the 4th straight week. The count of active oil rigs in the US rose again this week, by eight to 591, according to Baker Hughes. ADDITIONALLY: There's a new biggest bull on Wall Street and he thinks stocks could rally 15% this year. Investors don't trust the Fed anymore — and Trump might have something to do with it. Immigration is adding to population growth in every US state. SEE ALSO: What 25 major world leaders and dictators looked like when they were young Join the conversation about this story » NOW WATCH: Here's how to use one of the many apps to buy and trade bitcoin |
STOCKS HIT ALL-TIME HIGHS: Here's what you need to know
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Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST Stocks hit all-time highs again on Friday. All three major indices hit all-time highs, although they retraced some of their gains as the afternoon progressed. Stocks also climbed on Thursday following US President Donald Trump's announcement that he would release his plan to reform the tax system in the new few weeks. In any case, first up, the scoreboard:
1. Wall Street's top regulator is resigning from the Fed. Daniel Tarullo will resign from the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors on or around April 5, according to a statement on Friday. President Barack Obama appointed Tarullo in 2009 for a term that would have expired at the end of January 2022. 2. US consumer confidence dropped for the first time since the election. The University of Michigan's survey of consumers showed a drop in expectations for economic growth. The preliminary sentiment index for February slipped from a 12-year high in January to 95.7. It had been forecast at 98, down from 98.5, according to Bloomberg. 3. Canada's jobs report crushed it, with the labor market adding 48,300 jobs in January, compared to economists' forecasts of a loss of 10,000. "Overall, recent employment data provide further evidence confirming the recovery in the economy from the oil price shock," David Madani, the senior Canada economist at Capital Economics, wrote. "The next big challenge might be Trump's protectionist threats which, if acted on, would be very negative for Canada’s small open economy." 4. GOP lawmakers got blasted on Obamacare at a town hall. "There are people who have cancer that have that coverage that have to have that coverage to make sure they don't die," one man, Mike Carlson, said. "And you want to take away this coverage and have nothing to replace it with. How can I trust you to do anything that's in our interest at all?" 5. Elizabeth Warren and Tammy Baldwin wrote a letter to Goldman Sachs' CEO asking how much influence Goldman has over Trump. Specifically, Warren and Baldwin are concerned about how much input former and current Goldman Sachs employees have had over recent executive orders to roll back regulations on Wall Street, including the Dodd-Frank law that regulated banks after the financial crisis. 6. Reckitt Benckiser, the maker of Durex condoms, is buying a baby-formula company — and Wall Street stands to make more than $100 million from the deal. The deal is one of the largest announced this year. 7. US oil rig count climbs for the 4th straight week. The count of active oil rigs in the US rose again this week, by eight to 591, according to Baker Hughes. ADDITIONALLY: There's a new biggest bull on Wall Street and he thinks stocks could rally 15% this year. Investors don't trust the Fed anymore — and Trump might have something to do with it. Immigration is adding to population growth in every US state. SEE ALSO: What 25 major world leaders and dictators looked like when they were young Join the conversation about this story » NOW WATCH: Here's how to use one of the many apps to buy and trade bitcoin |
Report: Funding for Bitcoin, Blockchain Startups Grows to $550 Million in 2016
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CryptoCoins News, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST […] The post Report: Funding for Bitcoin, Blockchain Startups Grows to $550 Million in 2016 appeared first on CryptoCoinsNews. |
Capital Controls and Ponzi Schemes: How Nigeria Is Discovering Bitcoin
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Bitcoin Magazine, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST |
Better Bitcoin Privacy, Scalability: Developers Making TumbleBit a Reality
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Bitcoin Magazine, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST |
There's a new biggest bull on Wall Street and he thinks stocks could rally 15% this year
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Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST
Wall Street has a new most bullish strategist. Binky Chadha, Deutsche Bank's chief global strategist, said in a note Thursday that his year-end target for the benchmark S&P 500 is 2,600. That topped the call for 2,575 made by John Praveen, Prudential's chief investment strategist, which was the previous high that Business Insider observed. Both strategists believe the market will maintain the momentum it gained after President Donald Trump's election in November. However, Chadha dismissed the dominant narrative of the reason for the rally: that investors bought stocks because they were looking forward to tax cuts, fewer regulations, and infrastructure spending. Rather, Chadha argued, the stock market simply priced out the uncertainty that was associated with the presidential election, as is typical after tight races. "A V-shaped recovery in GDP and earnings growth has been unfolding for a year and has further to go," Chadha said. He saw the turnaround in commodity prices, and in earnings in the sector, as adding to the upside for stocks. He forecast earnings growth of 13% this year. Chadha said although the S&P 500 multiple of 19x is higher than its historical average, stocks do not look expensive on an absolute basis. "In most past recoveries the multiple ended up higher than fair value as forward-looking investors priced in a stronger growth outlook well before realized earnings delivered," he said. "We have yet to see that phase in this recovery." Additionally, companies will provide a key source of demand for their stocks. Chadha forecast that companies will spend $500 billion on buybacks this year, driving 10% of S&P 500 price gains. His target of 2,600 represents a 15% gain for the year. SEE ALSO: One of Wall Street's most prominent bulls is retiring Join the conversation about this story » NOW WATCH: Here's how to use one of the many apps to buy and trade bitcoin |
There's a new biggest bull on Wall Street and he thinks stocks could rally 15% this year
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Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST
Wall Street has a new most bullish strategist. Binky Chadha, Deutsche Bank's chief global strategist, said in a note Thursday that his year-end target for the benchmark S&P 500 is 2,600. That topped the call for 2,575 made by John Praveen, Prudential's chief investment strategist, which was the previous high that Business Insider observed. Both strategists believe the market will maintain the momentum it gained after President Donald Trump's election in November. However, Chadha dismissed the dominant narrative of the reason for the rally: that investors bought stocks because they were looking forward to tax cuts, fewer regulations, and infrastructure spending. Rather, Chadha argued, the stock market simply priced out the uncertainty that was associated with the presidential election, as is typical after tight races. "A V-shaped recovery in GDP and earnings growth has been unfolding for a year and has further to go," Chadha said. He saw the turnaround in commodity prices, and in earnings in the sector, as adding to the upside for stocks. He forecast earnings growth of 13% this year. Chadha said although the S&P 500 multiple of 19x is higher than its historical average, stocks do not look expensive on an absolute basis. "In most past recoveries the multiple ended up higher than fair value as forward-looking investors priced in a stronger growth outlook well before realized earnings delivered," he said. "We have yet to see that phase in this recovery." Additionally, companies will provide a key source of demand for their stocks. Chadha forecast that companies will spend $500 billion on buybacks this year, driving 10% of S&P 500 price gains. His target of 2,600 represents a 15% gain for the year. SEE ALSO: One of Wall Street's most prominent bulls is retiring Join the conversation about this story » NOW WATCH: Here's how to use one of the many apps to buy and trade bitcoin |
Wall Street's top regulator is resigning from the Fed
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Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST Daniel Tarullo will resign from the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors on or around April 5, according to a statement on Friday. He served as chairman of the Board's Committee on Supervision and Regulation, which was responsible for regulating Wall Street banks. "Dan led the Fed's work to craft a new framework for ensuring the safety and soundness of our financial system following the financial crisis and made invaluable contributions across the entire range of the Fed's responsibilities," Fed Chair Janet Yellen said in a statement. President Barack Obama appointed Tarullo in 2009 for a term that would have expired at the end of January 2022. "It has been a great privilege to work with former Chairman Bernanke and Chair Yellen during such a challenging period for the nation's economy and financial system," Tarullo said in his resignation letter. He was involved in implementing the Dodd-Frank reforms created after the 2008 financial crisis to prevent a repeat. The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund, which tracks large financial companies including banks and insurers, rose 0.6% to an intraday high following news of Tarullo's resignation. Tarullo, 64, was a law professor at Georgetown University before joining the Fed. SEE ALSO: One of Wall Street's most prominent bulls is retiring Join the conversation about this story » NOW WATCH: Here's how to use one of the many apps to buy and trade bitcoin |
Accenture looks to drive FSI blockchain adoption
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Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST This story was delivered to BI Intelligence "Fintech Briefing" subscribers. To learn more and subscribe, please click here. Despite all the coverage around blockchain technology and the benefits it can bring to FSIs, these companies have been hesitant to adopt it, due partly to unresolved concerns about how well data can be protected on a ledger accessible to multiple users. So far, data has been stored on blockchains using "cyberwallets," which have proven vulnerable to hacking, primarily because the "keys" network participants use to access them are stored digitally on software servers. Now, consultancy Accenture has partnered with Thales, a cybersecurity solution provider, to develop what it claims is a more secure way to keep data on a blockchain, Reuters reports. The solution is built on the Hyperledger fabric, and uses Thales's technology to store digital keys more securely, via encryption and physical isolation from IT networks. In addition, the new solution claims to solve a second problem: Historically, legacy financial firms have struggled to develop effective blockchain security because the ability to do so lies with a small pool of experts, and is therefore expensive. By sourcing the technology from a third party, Accenture will let FSIs implement blockchain security without having to build it in-house, making the process cheaper. As blockchain technology moves slowly out of the experimentation phase, security will become a greater concern. As such, we can expect to see more solutions for securing these emerging blockchain products going forward. Blockchain technology, which is best known for powering Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, is gaining steam among finance firms because of its potential to streamline processes and increase efficiency. The technology could cut costs by up to $20 billion annually by 2022, according to Santander. That's because blockchain, which operates as a distributed ledger, has the ability to allow multiple parties to transfer and store sensitive information in a space that’s secure, permanent, anonymous, and easily accessible. That could simplify paper-heavy, expensive, or logistically complicated financial systems, like remittances and cross-border transfer, shareholder management and ownership exchange, and securities trading, to name a few. And outside of finance, governments and the music industry are investigating the technology’s potential to simplify record-keeping. As a result, venture capital firms and financial institutions alike are pouring investment into finding, developing, and testing blockchain use cases. Over 50 major financial institutions are involved with collaborative blockchain startups, have begun researching the technology in-house, or have helped fund startups with products rooted in blockchain. Jaime Toplin, research associate for BI Intelligence, Business Insider's premium research service, has compiled a detailed report on blockchain technology that explains how blockchain works, why it has the potential to provide a watershed moment for the financial industry, and the different ways it could be put into practice in the coming years. Here are some key takeaways from the report:
In full, the report:
To get your copy of this invaluable guide, choose one of these options:
The choice is yours. But however you decide to acquire this report, you’ve given yourself a powerful advantage in your understanding of blockchain technology. |
Here comes the Baker Hughes rig count ...
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Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST
Baker Hughes will release its weekly tally of US oil and gas rigs at 1 p.m. ET. The oil rig count jumped again last week, by 17 to 583 and to the highest level since October 23, 2015. The count was up 84% from the low reached in May 2016. Drilling activity has increased as oil prices also recovered after the plunge in 2014. "Production proved even more resilient than the rig count: it took 35 weeks after the rig count started to decline before production began its own decline," said Societe Generale commodity strategists in a recent note. "From peak to trough, production only fell by approximately 12%." "The resilience of US onshore oil supply in the face of lower prices demonstrates the profound technological transformations witnessed in the shale industry." Robust US production now threatens to undermine efforts by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some non-members to reduce the global oversupply of oil. The International Energy Agency said Friday that OPEC has achieved a record 90% compliance with its agreement last November to cut production. SEE ALSO: IEA: OPEC is sticking to its agreement to cut oil production like never before Join the conversation about this story » NOW WATCH: Here's how to use one of the many apps to buy and trade bitcoin |
What you need to know on Wall Street right now
Welcome to Finance Insider, Business Insider's summary of the top stories of the past 24 hours. Charts: How an ETF Approval Could Impact Bitcoin's Price
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CoinDesk, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST How would the bitcoin market might react if a long-awaited ETF was approved? Crypto guru Willy Woo explores. |
JPMorgan's head of US equities on the dollar, market volatility, and where investors should put their money in 2017
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Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST
Business Insider recently caught up with Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, the head of US Equity Strategy at JPMorgan. In the interview, Lakos-Bujas discusses dollar strength, market volatility and where investors should put their money in 2017. This interview has been edited for clarity and length. Tina Wadhwa: So, first, just a broad question. What are the big themes of the moment on your mind? What are you worried about, what are you excited about? Dubravko Lakos-Bujas: I would say dollar strength and the dollar strengthening further. And some of that could come on the back of current corporate tax reform proposals like the border tax adjustments that could impact the dollar upwards. So dollar strength is clearly one key source of risk for equities. The second one is interest rates, basically higher rates that result in further tightening. Wadhwa: Stocks on the whole have been rallying to all time highs since the news of Trump’s election. Have markets failed to price in the policy uncertainty of a Trump presidency? Are we starting to price it in now? Lakos-Bujas: So first of all we generally see the proposals that have been suggested by the new administration, looking at them based on all the information we have available right now, as a net net positive. As sort of pro-growth. Clearly we had a very early call on that, and we basically came out with with a tactical S&P price target of 2300 that we thought we were going to reach in early 2017. We came out with that the day after the US election. That’s the more immediate effect that we thought could take place as the market starts to price in some of these proposals and a more pro-business agenda. There’s a lot of uncertainty so it’s hard to quantify things that precisely, but generally our view is net net constructive and we have reached this first leg up on the market. It took place relatively quickly pricing in some of these things in anticipation. What I think you’ll likely see now in the coming months is some elevated degree of volatility and elevated degree of dispersion across stocks and across industries as the market basically starts to gradually digest a lot of the views coming out. I would say in the coming months you’ll see a lot of potential volatility, and later in the year, some further small upside, so our 2017 price target is 2400. Wadhwa: Given the uncertainty you speak of, how can investors protect themselves? Lakos-Bujas: That’s not an easy one. You have two sides of it. One — you get a 5% pull back in the market, just given that generally fundamentals are relatively okay. Profit cycles are normalizing. Many people might use that weakness in the market to step in and buy at a cheaper level. There’s no simple way of answering that. You could look at ways of hedging your portfolio by buying volatility, buying volatility insurance, buying insurance by being long volatility, in case you do start to see some disruption or risk factors kicking in, be it on the US side with respect to these proposals or be it on the foreign side as far as geopolitics and elections. We’re going to see elections in France, Germany, the Netherlands. There’s a lot of unknowns. The second thing is if you believe that a strong dollar and rising rates are going to continue tightening conditions, don’t be surprised if at some point the Fed turns marginally more dovish, which means that gold and gold miners might be an interesting hedge to an existing portfolio. Wadhwa: President Trump is known for his impulsive tweets, on everything from particular companies to particular people. How does an investor handle this? Are we just one tweetstorm away from a crash?
Wadhwa: What makes the market so resilient? Lakos-Bujas: Because I think for one you do see an environment when central bankers globally remain very cautious. Even though the Fed is looking to normalize policy, still you could say that policy is relatively accommodative and that provides some form of synthetic floor. In the fundamental backdrop in terms of earnings and the profit cycle, things in general are improving and they’re normalizing. I wouldn’t call them very strong, but they’re okay. So if you look at our expectation for this year in terms of earnings, we’re calling for 7 - 8% upside in terms of earnings delivery. Wadhwa: Dating back to 1910, history shows that after a two term government has changed and a new government comes in, regardless of which side of the house they’re from, there’s a strong chance of a recession within 12 months. Are we headed for a recession in 2017? Lakos-Bujas: I don’t have a strong view on that. I’ve looked at the history, I’ve looked at previous election cycles, Republican versus Democratic party, incumbent versus non incumbent etc., and from all of the in depth analysis that we do, and we find the relationship to be statistically very weak. So I have a very hard time deriving judgment on the back of that information. I think we have a fairly unique environment today and you need to look at it in full context. It’s hard to sort of make a broad brushed historical comparison there. Wadhwa: In your view, what’s the the biggest risk to the global economy?
The second risk is what happens with rates. There’s a good amount of leverage in the system, especially if you look at corporates. US corporates ex-financials — leverage there is pretty much in line with all time highs, back to the 2007 levels. There’s less room for tolerating a significant amount of rate increases. And we need to see what happens on the trade side. If the US does adopt significant changes on the border side and that ends up resulting in significant retaliatory effects from some of our biggest trading partners like China, that clearly can affect the global economy. Wadhwa: Speaking of China, what’s your outlook? What’s going to happen there? Lakos-Bujas: Our research department’s outlook for China is still basically calling for positive growth, pretty much in line with what we saw for last year. Generally I think the macroeconomic momentum and data coming out of China and more broadly EM over the last 3-6 months has been positive. The trend has generally been positive there. So I think the outlook for us is on the positive side. Wadhwa: Turning back to equities, what sectors do you recommend? What sectors should we stay out of?
Wadhwa: 2016 saw a massive flow of funds from active into passive management, but many analysts see an upside for active investing in 2017. What’s your view? Is this trend likely to reverse? Lakos-Bujas: We’ve published a lot on this topic and clearly you have seen this big trend and rotation from the fundamental active equity world into the passive equity world. There are multiple reasons behind this. 2016 was the worst rotation from active to passive at least in the last 10 years, if not longer. The drivers behind this are twofold. You have cyclical drivers and structural drivers. Structural drivers won’t necessarily go away anytime soon. Structural drivers include everything from technological advancement to significant increases in computing power. Passive products have benefitted from these trends, and we have seen a proliferation of quant type products, smart beta, low vol, which are more passive in nature. They tend to give the end client more transparency and more liquidity. There's also been a huge focus on fees. I don't think those structural drivers go away anytime soon. They continue to persist. And the move flows underneath from active into passive. The cyclical drivers could be the growth environment and the interest rate environment. The outlook is somewhat more constructive going forward, and if we expect the dispersion will generally likely pick up given all of these moving variables on the policy side and on the macro side, that should bode well for your fundamental active manager. From a cyclical point of view, as you go into 2017, maybe 2018, I think there are going to be some positives. But I think these positives continue to get pressurized by some these negative structural effects. So I would say I’m not so sure that you will now see a complete reversal in this rotation, but I think you’ll see a slowdown in this rotation from active into passive.
Lakos-Bujas: I think it's still very unclear what a Brexit means in terms of outright trade. How does trade get renegotiated? Is there basically a hard stop or is there some kind of middle ground? It’s very hard to say. Clearly some degree of negativity has already been priced in, but then again I think we’re sort of in a wait and see mode to see what exactly takes place there. Plus Brexit could take awhile to play out — it could take years. I think the more imminent risk are the elections in the Eurozone area — Netherlands, France, Germany. Brexit and the US election do provide a reference point and at least some precedent of what could happen with these upcoming European elections. So is there a possibility of a tail risk event there? Clearly there is. I don’t think we should be underestimating that. But I think our base case remains one where net net you will see a relatively balanced outcome. Could you see periods where volatility sort of spikes all of a sudden and you get these sort of fat tail risks play out? You could, but our net net case is that the underlying fundamentals and the macro backdrop will continue to gradually improve and that will be the more important factor. Momentum will likely continue to stay positive. SEE ALSO: One of the most powerful women in finance on protectionism, China, Dow 20k, and 'Brexit on steroids' Join the conversation about this story » NOW WATCH: Here's how to use one of the many apps to buy and trade bitcoin |
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Wadhwa: Grab Hold Of Bitcoin’s ‘Bigger Picture,’ Gavin Andresen Urges The Community
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CryptoCoins News, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST […] The post Grab Hold Of Bitcoin’s ‘Bigger Picture,’ Gavin Andresen Urges The Community appeared first on CryptoCoinsNews. |
Elizabeth Warren and Tammy Baldwin wrote a letter to Goldman Sachs' CEO asking how much influence Goldman has over Trump (GS)
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Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST Democratic Senators Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren sent a letter to Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein on Friday asking for information regarding Goldman Sachs' influence over the Trump administration. Specifically, Warren and Baldwin are concerned about how much input former and current Goldman Sachs employees have had over recent executive orders to roll back regulations on Wall Street, including the Dodd-Frank law that regulated banks after the financial crisis. "The executive orders released by President Trump on Friday last week raise our concerns about the degree to which Mr. Cohn's advice to President Trump is good for Wall Street, but bad for Americans," said Baldwin and Warren's letter. "Mr. Trump released two executive orders with Mr. Cohn at his side, both from the Wall Street wish list: one promised to roll back Dodd-Frank rules put in place after the 2008 Financial Crisis, and another put in place a process that could eliminate new requirements that investment advisers act in their clients' best interests." The letter cites Gary Cohn, the former COO and second-in-charge at Goldman, as a particular concern due to his position as the head of Trump's National Economic Council. "We are concerned that Mr. Cohn — who received an extraordinary $284 million handout from Goldman Sachs as he left his 25-year career with the firm — will be unable to develop economic policies that will help middle-class families, and will instead favor Wall Street over Main Street," the letter read. "We hope you can provide us with information that will assuage our concerns." There are currently three former Goldman employees in the close circle of Trump's administration: Cohn, Trump's controversial adviser Steve Bannon, and Treasury secretary nominee Steven Mnuchin. In a statement to Business Insider, a Goldman spokesperson said, "We've had no involvement in the drafting of any executive orders." Warren and Baldwin also noted that the recent executive order was beneficial to Goldman's stock, which is one of the best-performing stocks since Trump's election. "Goldman Sachs would be a major beneficiary of these efforts to deregulate the financial industry; the company's stock rose by almost 5%, increasing your company's market capitalization by $4.1 billion - the day of President Trump's announcement," said the letter. Goldman Sachs' stock has rallied 33% since the election. The two senators are asking for all communication between Cohn and Goldman regarding the draft of the executive orders. During the election, Goldman CEO Blankfein was a supporter of Hillary Clinton and cautioned about the negative impact of Trump's policies. He has since said he is willing to support the president, but spoke out against his recent travel ban. Join the conversation about this story » NOW WATCH: Here's how to use one of the many apps to buy and trade bitcoin |
Investors don't trust the Fed anymore — and Trump might have something to do with it
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Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST Federal Reserve officials keep breaking their promises, so it's little wonder financial markets have stopped taking officials at their word. Fed officials were nearly unanimous at the start of 2016 in predicting the central bank would raise interest rates four times that year. It ultimately did so just once, at the very last meeting of the year. Now, the Fed is claiming they could move three times this year. But investors are not so sure. They have reason to be skeptical. Policymakers are quick to point out their guidance on rates is just a forecast, not a pledge, even though it is often viewed as such. In addition, market perceptions have shifted in part due to a renewed sense that Donald Trump is actually going to keep some of the anti-trade promises he made during the campaign, which could threaten economic growth and lead the Fed to take a more dovish route than expected. Market enthusiasm seems to have peaked when Trump took office and started to actually to fulfill some of his harsher protectionist promises. Trump quickly ripped up the hard-fought Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement negotiated by the administration of President Barack Obama and has vowed to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement and impose a border tax on imported goods. He and his team have also unfairly accused top trading partners China and Germany of manipulating their currencies, setting the stage for a confrontation. Importantly, Trump will have the opportunity to reshape the Fed as Janet Yellen's term expires, making it even more difficult than usual to foresee the future path of policy. This chart from Deutsche Bank economist Torsten Sløk shows just how much doubt investors have about aggressive future Fed action. Market expectations about the probability of three hikes in 2017 have been slowly but steadily dropping since the December FOMC meeting.
SEE ALSO: The Fed already has a problem with its 2017 forecast Join the conversation about this story » NOW WATCH: Here's how to use one of the many apps to buy and trade bitcoin |
Immigration is adding to population growth in every US state
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Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST Immigration to the United States is a big aspect of how states grow. International migration was a net positive to population growth in all 50 states and the District of Columbia between 2015 and 2016. The US Census Bureau recently released estimates for the major components of population change — natural change (births minus deaths), net domestic migration, and net international migration — for the states between July 1, 2015 and July 1, 2016. While a couple states lost population overall from natural change, and many lost population from domestic migration, net international migration — the total number of people moving to a state from another country minus people moving to another country from that state — was positive in each state and DC. Of course, the size of that increase varied wildly across states, from a gain of just 524 net immigrants in Wyoming to nearly 229,000 in California. Adjusting for population, rates of net international migration ranged from 0.55 per 1,000 Montana residents in 2015 to 6.14 per 1,000 Washington, DC residents. SEE ALSO: Here are the fastest growing states in the US Join the conversation about this story » NOW WATCH: Here's how to use one of the many apps to buy and trade bitcoin |
One of the world's leading credit-rating agencies thinks Trump could be a disaster for the global economy
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Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST Fitch Ratings, one of the world's major credit rating agencies, is sounding the alarm on the potential negative impact of President Donald Trump's economic policies. In a report on Friday, Fitch said that the uncertainty of Trump's economic policies, as well as his penchant for protectionist trade policies, pose a risk not only to the sovereign bonds but overall economic conditions as well. "The Trump Administration represents a risk to international economic conditions and global sovereign credit fundamentals," said a press release from Fitch. "US policy predictability has diminished, with established international communication channels and relationship norms being set aside and raising the prospect of sudden, unanticipated changes in US policies with potential global implications." Fitch said that some of Trump's policies — specifically tax cuts and deregulation — would be positive for economic growth but his recent policy preferences and talk on trade and immigration would be an overall drag. From the release (emphasis ours): The primary risks to sovereign credits include the possibility of disruptive changes to trade relations, diminished international capital flows, limits on migration that affect remittances and confrontational exchanges between policymakers that contribute to heightened or prolonged currency and other financial market volatility. The materialization of these risks would provide an unfavorable backdrop for economic growth, putting pressure on public finances that may have rating implications for some sovereigns. Increases in the cost or reductions in the availability of external financing, particularly if accompanied by currency depreciation, could also affect ratings." Fitch did note that US policy towards countries "may change quickly" under the Trump administration. There have already been reports that long-time allies, such as Australia, have been turned on by Trump. There is a chance that the current upheaval may just be a short -lived period and the "Administration will settle in" and promote pro-growth policies. This outcome, however, according to Fitch, is unlikely. From the release (emphasis ours): "In Fitch's view, the present balance of risks points toward a less benign global outcome. The Administration has abandoned the Trans-Pacific Partnership, confirmed a pending renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement, rebuked US companies that invest abroad, while threatening financial penalties for companies that do so, and accused a number of countries of manipulating exchange rates to the US's disadvantage. The full impact of these initiatives will not be known for some time, and will depend on iterative exchanges among multiple parties and unforeseen additional developments. In short, a lot can change, but the aggressive tone of some Administration rhetoric does not portend an easy period of negotiation ahead, nor does it suggest there is much scope for compromise." Fitch said that countries who bear the most risk under a Trump administration are those that have had a close economic connection to the US under previous administrations but could "come under scrutiny due to either existing financial imbalances or perceptions of unfair frameworks or practices that govern their bilateral relations." In addition, countries that have a large number of immigrants in the US that send back remittances and those that ship goods to the US face risks to their economies. According to the release, the list of countries and regions that could see a significant negative impact from Trump's policies include Germany, Canada, Japan, China, Mexico, the Netherlands, the UK, Honduras, Nicaragua, Guatemala, El Salvador, Brazil, East Asia, and Central Europe. SEE ALSO: Trump says he is releasing something 'phenomenal in terms of tax' in 2 to 3 weeks Join the conversation about this story » NOW WATCH: Here's how to use one of the many apps to buy and trade bitcoin |
The company behind Call of Duty and Candy Crush is soaring after reporting record revenue (ATVI)
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Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST
The gaming company posted record quarterly revenue despite a slump in sales of its Call of Duty video game. Its multiplayer hero shooter game Overwatch reached 25 million players globally over 2016 and helped drive revenues to a record $6.61 billion for the year ended December 31. Those sales are up 42% compared to 2015, and Activision CEO Eric Hirshberg said the Overwatch game has only scratched the surface. Activision Blizzard acquired Candy Crush maker King in February 2016 to flesh out its mobile game strategy. Earnings for the year were $1.28 per share, up from $1.19 in the previous year. As the company becomes increasingly focused on digital strategies and games as a service, Activision Blizzard highlighted its 447 million monthly active users during the quarter, driven by mobile unit King. On the earnings call, Activision COO Thomas Tippl said the company has 5 of the top 10 games on live streaming video platform Twitch and expects Call of Duty sales to rise in 2017.
SEE ALSO: Activision sales top Street; Co hikes dividend, sets $1 bln buyback Join the conversation about this story » NOW WATCH: Here's how to use one of the many apps to buy and trade bitcoin |
Activision Blizzard
A Bitcoin Hard Fork? Exploring the Science of Contentious Code Change
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CoinDesk, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST Developers are probing deeper into how best to execute a hard fork – a contentious upgrading tool that promises numerous benefits for bitcoin. |
MORGAN STANLEY: Media stocks could soar 25% in 2017
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Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST This could be a good year for media. The industry has been struggling of late as customers increasingly looked to online streaming services like Netflix and Amazon and advertisers followed the demand. This is set to change, however, as improved prospects and relatively low valuations could see media stocks rise by 15 to 25% by the end of 2017, according to a note by Morgan Stanley Research on Thursday. "Looking forward, we see TV distribution revenue growth accelerating and increasing confidence in earnings growth moving us from bearish to bullish," according to the note led by Morgan Stanley's Ben Swinburne. The team upgraded its media industry to "attractive," citing lower distribution fees due to consolidation in the industry and improved prospects for new streaming offers in 2017 that could convert basic cable customers to higher-value packages. Traditional TV saw a huge decline in advertising post-recession and lost share to emerging digital platforms, according to Swinburne. Since then, however, big brands in consumer packaged goods, food and beverage returned to TV as they looked for a higher-end brand experience and a better return on investment. “We see a robust advertising year in 2017 and overall," said Swinburne. Swinburne also looks to President Trump's promised corporate tax reforms as a major benefit to the sector heading into the year.
SEE ALSO: The 15 Best Media Companies To Work For Join the conversation about this story » NOW WATCH: Here's how to use one of the many apps to buy and trade bitcoin |
MORGAN STANLEY: Media stocks could soar 25% in 2017
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Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST This could be a good year for media. The industry has been struggling of late as customers increasingly looked to online streaming services like Netflix and Amazon and advertisers followed the demand. This is set to change, however, as improved prospects and relatively low valuations could see media stocks rise by 15 to 25% by the end of 2017, according to a note by Morgan Stanley Research on Thursday. "Looking forward, we see TV distribution revenue growth accelerating and increasing confidence in earnings growth moving us from bearish to bullish," according to the note led by Morgan Stanley's Ben Swinburne. The team upgraded its media industry to "attractive," citing lower distribution fees due to consolidation in the industry and improved prospects for new streaming offers in 2017 that could convert basic cable customers to higher-value packages. Traditional TV saw a huge decline in advertising post-recession and lost share to emerging digital platforms, according to Swinburne. Since then, however, big brands in consumer packaged goods, food and beverage returned to TV as they looked for a higher-end brand experience and a better return on investment. “We see a robust advertising year in 2017 and overall," said Swinburne. Swinburne also looks to President Trump's promised corporate tax reforms as a major benefit to the sector heading into the year.
SEE ALSO: The 15 Best Media Companies To Work For Join the conversation about this story » NOW WATCH: Here's how to use one of the many apps to buy and trade bitcoin |
A former hedge fund manager who retired at 36 is sounding the alarm on the Trump trade
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Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST
Investors have been crowding into the same bets as they speculate the impact of President Trump's proposed policies. With Trump promising increased fiscal stimulus, infrastructure spending, and generally pro-business policies, investors from individuals to mutual funds to hedge funds are making the same big bets on the market, forecasting higher yields, an upside in equities, and a bullish view on commodities. But Raoul Pal, a former hedge fund manager who comanaged the GLG Global Macro Fund for GLG Partners in London and retired at 36, warns that these investors should be careful. "They should avoid groupthink," he said in an interview with Business Insider. According to Pal, if everybody else is short bonds, long equities, long oil, long copper, then avoid the herd. "Look for other sources of return so they’re not so crowded as everybody else's because those are the ones where the maximum risk lies." If the bets don't play out and there's a reversal, even a short-term one, "it can be very painful if too many people are involved in a certain trade." Join the conversation about this story » NOW WATCH: Here's how to use one of the many apps to buy and trade bitcoin |
A former hedge fund manager who retired at 36 is sounding the alarm on the Trump trade
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Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST
Investors have been crowding into the same bets as they speculate the impact of President Trump's proposed policies. With Trump promising increased fiscal stimulus, infrastructure spending, and generally pro-business policies, investors from individuals to mutual funds to hedge funds are making the same big bets on the market, forecasting higher yields, an upside in equities, and a bullish view on commodities. But Raoul Pal, a former hedge fund manager who comanaged the GLG Global Macro Fund for GLG Partners in London and retired at 36, warns that these investors should be careful. "They should avoid groupthink," he said in an interview with Business Insider. According to Pal, if everybody else is short bonds, long equities, long oil, long copper, then avoid the herd. "Look for other sources of return so they’re not so crowded as everybody else's because those are the ones where the maximum risk lies." If the bets don't play out and there's a reversal, even a short-term one, "it can be very painful if too many people are involved in a certain trade." Join the conversation about this story » NOW WATCH: Here's how to use one of the many apps to buy and trade bitcoin |
One of Wall Street's most prominent bulls is retiring
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Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST
Bloomberg's Dakin Campbell reported Friday that Cohen will step back from her management duties. But she's not leaving the investment bank completely; she will continue to advise investing clients and will stay on the committee that oversees Goldman's US retirement plans. Cohen, 64, gained a reputation as one of the most bullish and accurate strategists on Wall Street. She forecast the stock market surge in the 1990s that preceded the dotcom bubble, and advised clients to reduce their exposure to stocks right before the crash. But like many colleagues, she didn't see the most recent financial crisis coming. As CNBC noted, Cohen 2008 price target on the S&P 500 was a super-bullish 1,675. The market closed the year 46% below her target, at 903.25. As stocks sold off in January 2016 after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, Cohen criticized the bearishness as an "emotional response." In an interview with Bloomberg, she put off concerns at the time of a US recession, and said the economy would likely continue to grow by around 2.5%. Cohen joined Goldman Sachs in 1990 and was named a partner in 1998. Her career began at the Federal Reserve, where she worked as an economist. SEE ALSO: Here's one name Trump will hear when he looks to replace Janet Yellen as Fed chair Join the conversation about this story » NOW WATCH: Here's how to use one of the many apps to buy and trade bitcoin |
Abby Joseph CohenWhy Bitcoin ATMs are Becoming Increasingly Redundant
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CryptoCoins News, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST […] The post Why Bitcoin ATMs are Becoming Increasingly Redundant appeared first on CryptoCoinsNews. |
More Chinese Exchanges Impose Bitcoin Withdrawal Delays
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CoinDesk, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST China's bitcoin startups announced new updates to their withdrawal policies today, though stipulations varied by exchange. |
Here comes Canada's jobs report...
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Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST The latest read on the Canadian labor market will be out at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists forecast that that the Canadian economy lost 10,000 jobs in January, according to the Bloomberg consensus. Last month, the labor market added 53,700, which was a huge surprise on the upside. "Given the more moderate pace of recent GDP growth, we doubt that January’s employment figure will be anywhere near as strong as the one in December," Capital Economics' David Madani wrote in a note ahead of the report. Moreover, economists estimate that both the unemployment rate and the labor force participation rate will hold steady, at 6.9% and 65.8, respectively. The Canadian dollar is little changed at 1.3139 per US dollar as of 8:13 a.m. ET. Refresh this page for updates at 8:30 a.m. ET.
SEE ALSO: What 25 major world leaders and dictators looked like when they were young Join the conversation about this story » NOW WATCH: Here's how to use one of the many apps to buy and trade bitcoin |
IEA: OPEC is sticking to its agreement to cut oil production like never before
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Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has received an early and key endorsement of its effort to reduce the global oversupply of oil. On Friday, the International Energy Agency — a global energy watchdog — said OPEC had achieved 90% compliance with its agreement last year to lower production. Saudi Arabia, the IEA said, appeared to cut more than was agreed on at the meeting with some key non-OPEC members in November. The IEA's oil market report for February said, "While seaborne oil export data, from which secondary source estimates of OPEC production are mainly derived, are not complete for January and is subject to revision, OPEC nevertheless appears to have made a solid start to what is a six-month process. This first cut is certainly one of the deepest in the history of OPEC output cut initiatives." Brent crude, the international benchmark of oil prices, approached the highest level in over a year after the IEA's report, gaining 1.9% to $56.73 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures, the US gauge, climbed 1.6% to $53.84 per barrel. Saudi Arabia, which is ostensibly OPEC's leader, stands to gain from the bump in oil prices that lower production levels could stimulate. Besides a fiscal boost, it is eyeing a 2018 initial public offering — which would be the world's largest — for its state-owned oil company Aramco. On non-OPEC producers who were part of the deal, the IEA said that based on incomplete data, Russia cut output by 100,000 barrels per day. It's on track to gradually hit its target of 300,000. Oman lowered output in line with its commitment,. while Kazakhstan was cutting more than it agreed to, the IEA said. However, the solution to the oil market's imbalance still rests heavily on US shale producers. "US shale is coming back, and it’s coming back strong," said Mark Keenan, a commodity strategist at Societe Generale, in a recent note. He cited the rise in rig counts and improving job growth in the energy sector as part of the evidence for this. SEE ALSO: The US is planning to sell 10 million barrels of crude oil from its reserves this month Join the conversation about this story » NOW WATCH: Here's how to use one of the many apps to buy and trade bitcoin |
IEA: OPEC is sticking to its agreement to cut oil production like never before
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Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has received an early and key endorsement of its effort to reduce the global oversupply of oil. On Friday, the International Energy Agency — a global energy watchdog — said OPEC had achieved 90% compliance with its agreement last year to lower production. Saudi Arabia, the IEA said, appeared to cut more than was agreed on at the meeting with some key non-OPEC members in November. The IEA's oil market report for February said, "While seaborne oil export data, from which secondary source estimates of OPEC production are mainly derived, are not complete for January and is subject to revision, OPEC nevertheless appears to have made a solid start to what is a six-month process. This first cut is certainly one of the deepest in the history of OPEC output cut initiatives." Brent crude, the international benchmark of oil prices, approached the highest level in over a year after the IEA's report, gaining 1.9% to $56.73 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures, the US gauge, climbed 1.6% to $53.84 per barrel. Saudi Arabia, which is ostensibly OPEC's leader, stands to gain from the bump in oil prices that lower production levels could stimulate. Besides a fiscal boost, it is eyeing a 2018 initial public offering — which would be the world's largest — for its state-owned oil company, Aramco. On non-OPEC producers who were part of the deal, the IEA said that based on incomplete data, Russia cut output by 100,000 barrels per day. It's on track to gradually hit its target of 300,000. Oman lowered output in line with its commitment, while Kazakhstan was cutting more than it agreed to, the IEA said. However, the solution to the oil market's imbalance still rests heavily on US shale producers. "US shale is coming back, and it’s coming back strong," said Mark Keenan, a commodity strategist at Societe Generale, in a recent note. He cited the rise in rig counts and improving job growth in the energy sector as part of the evidence for this.
SEE ALSO: The US is planning to sell 10 million barrels of crude oil from its reserves this month Join the conversation about this story » NOW WATCH: Here's how to use one of the many apps to buy and trade bitcoin |
Bitcoin, Blockchain and Trump: Where Do We Go From Here?
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CoinDesk, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST As US President Donald Trump's administration begins to gather momentum, what lies in store for blockchain and bitcoin regulation? |
10 things you need to know in markets today
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Business Insider, 1/1/0001 12:00 AM PST Good morning! Here's what you need to know in markets on Friday. A federal appeals court unanimously ruled against President Donald Trump on Thursday, refusing to reinstate his travel ban affecting people from seven Muslim-majority countries. The ruling, issued by a three-judge panel on the San Francisco-based 9th Circuit Court of Appeals, means that refugees and citizens of the countries in question can continue entering the US — striking a blow to Trump's ability to deliver on one of his key campaign promises. The Bank of Mexico hiked interest rates by 50 basis points to 6.25% in its latest decision, as most economists were expecting. In the accompanying statement, the bank noted that emerging markets were facing greater uncertainty regarding fiscal, commercial, and migration policies under consideration by the new US administration. Stocks touched all-time highs on Thursday after Trump said he would release his plan to reform the tax system in the next few weeks.Although they back-tracked on some of their gains near the end of the trading day, all three major indices still finished in the green. Bitcoin tanked after Chinese exchanges announced they were blocking customers from withdrawing their bitcoins. Thursday's announcements are notable because nearly 100% of all bitcoin transactions take place on Chinese exchanges. The cryptocurrency has had a wild start to 2017 after gaining 120% in 2016, when it became the top-performing currency for a second straight year. Chinese trade data easily breezed past expectations in December, helping to fuel optimism over the state of the global economy. But, while there’s clear evidence that global economic activity is improving, the strength was helped by a low base effect stemming from low commodity prices in January 2016. "Sir John Rose, the man who helped to build Rolls-Royce into the world’s second biggest aero-engine maker, has been questioned as part of the investigation into alleged corruption at the UK’s flagship engineering company," according to a report from the Financial Times. Rose denies any wrongdoing and has not been charged, the FT notes. Trump’s “wall” along the US-Mexico border would be a series of fences and walls that would cost as much as $21.6 billion, and take more than three years to construct, based on a US Department of Homeland Security internal report seen by Reuters on Thursday. The report’s estimated price-tag is much higher than a $12-billion figure cited by Trump in his campaign and estimates as high as $15 billion from Republican House Speaker Paul Ryan and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. Bank of England Chief Operating Officer Charlotte Hogg has been named the new Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking. Hogg, who has been COO since 2013, replaces Minouche Shafik, who announced she was leaving in September after less than 2 years in the job. Apple CEO Tim Cook met with Theresa May on Thursday. Cook has been travelling around Europe this week, where he has so far visited Marseille, Paris, Vreden, Berlin, and most recently Glasgow. He arrived at Downing Street on Thursday at 10am and met with UK Prime Minister Theresa May. A spokesperson for the prime minister told Business Insider: "It was a meeting with the prime minister. It was a very positive and useful discussion." Trump's planned state visit to the UK will occur "around June," according to London's police chief. Sir Bernard Hogan-Howe, head of London's Metropolitan Police, told LBC Radio's Nick Ferrari: "First of all, I think President Trump is coming around June, that's the plan." Join the conversation about this story » NOW WATCH: These are the watches worn by the smartest and most powerful men in the world |
